Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Retracing Wednesday night''s rally to 2112.75 into Thursday''s open didn''t prevent gapping up above Wednesday afternoon''s 2105.50 high. But it wasn''t maintained, which turned a potential "session-long rally" setup into a "session-long decline." The very last minutes probed fresh lows down to 2092.00.

Overnight action''s new info...
Fresh lows were probed down to 2090.50 while China''s Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) resumed plunging. That was relatively shallow (as have been all other reactions to SHCOMP plunges, ever since the first reaction was realized not to have any bearing on western valuations). It was easily recovered back above 2092.00 ahead of Europe''s opens, but only to range sideways up to 2095.00. Very recently, Greece headlines suggesting an offer by creditors have triggered a rally now testing yesterday''s last hour high at 2098.50.

If, then...
Is this pre-open rally any more durable than yesterday''s? Two contextual signals suggest not. First, session-longs like yesterday''s session-long decline tend to resume their influence through the following morning. Second, Wednesday morning''s break already triggered a downleg projected to last through Friday morning. Either influence can be negated by triggering bias-up. Otherwise, fresh lows this morning remain likely.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2098.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2096.75 bias-up signal 30 minutes later at 10:15. Touching 2099.25 during the open would require its recovery, too. Exiting the open under 2094.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Volatile open leads to multiple signals. They''re all correct.

The open''s dip pierced yesterday''s 2092.00 low by 3 ticks. That does NOT qualify as probing fresh lows. Probing fresh lows this morning was indicated by yesterday''s session-long decline, and by Wednesday morning''s break.

The open touch of this morning''s 2091.25 bias-down signal does not put into play an offsetting test of the 2096.75 bias-up signal. That''s because the 2098.00 open had already tested the bias-up signal.

Bouncing from the open''s low probed a fresh high at 2100.75. It reacted down just enough to touch the 2096.75 bias-up signal, just in time to invoke the grace period. And despite extending down to 2094.50, bouncing through 10:30 recovered 2096.75 to trigger "late bias-up." On that point...

The late bias-up doesn''t prevent this morning from probing under yesterday''s lows.

We see several "late" bias signals each week, which invoked the grace period at 10:15. We don''t see many instances of testing both bias signals by 10::15... each month. Testing three bias signals by 10:15 -- one''s test interrupting two tests of the other -- is too rare to draw any reliable inference from its limited history.

Some signals are more reliable than others, but none more so than mixed signals. Contrarians anticipate the market doing its best to disappoint the most people at any given time. This is true, when many people are coagulating around a similar opinion.

But there is no contrarian position to mixed signals. So, rather than disappoint, the market tends to satisfy as many of the signals as possible. This is that instance.

So, regardless of the late bias-up, we''re still expecting to probe yesterday''s lows this morning. And we''re expecting the late bias-up''s extra room to help absorb that selling pressure to avoid melting down into the weekend. Not probing fresh lows this morning would be vulnerable to melting down this morning.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2107.75
2099.25
...would target 2113.75
2105.50
Bias-down: under 2101.00
2092.75
...would target 2095.75
2087.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The narrow consolidation didn''t bounce any higher -- let alone up to 1.1250-1.1275 -- before trying to resume the decline Friday. Tuesday''s 1.1146 prior low was tested as support through the afternoon, undermining whether the decline has resumed, which is difficult after so shallow of a corrective bounce.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows before and after Friday''s open down to 1167.00 didn''t prevent bouncing back into positive territory through the afternoon. But the decline''s momentum remains intact.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping down Friday probed fresh lows down to 15.45 but recovered back to the ~15.75 open and above the week''s prior lows, undermining the break''s momentum.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday''s gap down through 148-20 extended down sharply intraday to fresh lows at 147-11. So long as 147-30 holds as resistance and Monday closes negative to confirm Friday''s breakout, the next lower objective in-play is 146-04.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh lows overnight gapped down Friday to test 58.75 before reversing back up into positive territory. Closing back above 60.30 would start to signal momentum reversing up, still needing confirmation above 61.20.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
[Rolling coverage to Aug which trades at a 1-cent premium from Jul] Friday''s gap down to 2.78 as support reacted up to Thursday''s 2.82 open. A fresh low intraday struggled to recover 2.78 into the close. Closing above would signal a new rally leg underway 2.84.

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MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2107.50
2099.25
...would target 2113.50
2105.50
Bias-down: under 2096.75
2088.75
...would target 2090.50
2082.25
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.