Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's late surge had extended to 3059.25 overnight, before eventually retracing the surge's 3030.00 origin at the overnight low. Surging in reaction to INO's vaccine news was also retraced from 3055.00 down to 3035.00. Tuesday's immediate rally extended to 3072.50 and ranged choppily sideways until the afternoon's Powell and Mnuchin Senate testimony was winding down. Fresh highs were testing their 3077.00 target within 10 minutes of the close when more re-balancing triggered a third surge. Piercing its target by 3 ticks up to 3101.25 was also retraced entirely back down to its 3081.00 origin. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Ranging narrowly between 3080.00-3088.00 through midnight finally broke lower to 3073.00, where yesterday's lower prior highs pushed price back into the range before Europe's opens. The range's upper-end was probed up to 3093.00, but only briefly again before returning back into the range -- and now also back through its lower-end to 3066.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's late surge was already retraced to its 3081.00 origin before the close. The entire late breakout above 3074.00 earlier session highs is now also retraced, back down to the final hour's 3066.00 entry. Opening back under 3074.00 could all but marginalize buyers for the day. If substantial weakness isn't obvious through the open, then today's most bearish scenario could be limited to just backing-and-filling down to 3027.25-3030.00. Bounces would likely be limited to 3093.00, whose break would resume the recovery. Volatility may begin to contract as the 3-day holiday weekend approaches. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3070.50 would be likely to trigger the 3075.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3084.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

ADP and PFE produce last-minute POP. The overnight dip had extended down to 3063.00 and further threatened to exit the open under yesterday's 3066.00 final hour entry. Rather than just backing-and-filling, that would have been likelier to trend down sharply. ADP's report triggered a reversal, which PFE's vaccine news extended up to 3103.00. Post-open surging up to 3108.00 fulfilled the rally's template for not hesitating. Consolidating instead of snapping back down fulfilled the rally's template for its counter-trend sponsorship not being stronger-handed. None of which precluded dipping before extending higher, while being likelier to absorb that dip. Or, to absorb those dips, multiple, which there have been. Exceeding the 3105.50 bias-up target at 10:15 renewed the bias-up signal, targeting at least 3112.00 if not higher. That won't become unfinished business if left outstanding, but upside is still more reliable than downside so long as the market remains more focused on the 3105.50 bias-up target than on its 3091.50 bias-up signal. Back under 3091.50 would make flat-to-lower ranging likelier as anxiousness paralyzes price action ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3119.00 3108.00 ...would target 3131.75 3120.75 Bias-down: under 3099.00 3088.00 ...would target 3088.00 3077.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

FOMC Minutes at 2:00. This morning's bias environment ended with a fresh post-open low attacking 3089.00. Its reaction probed the post-open high by 2 points up to 3113.50. Meanwhile, the 3008.00 bias-up signal has held to trigger no-bias. FOMC Minutes at 2:00 may be paralyzing volatility. Its reaction isn't reliable for launching trending, but waiting for it still inhibits price action. The same inhibition often applies to the entire afternoon preceding the Employee Situation report, which is tomorrow -- not usually on a Thursday after FOMC news. Afternoons prior to an Employment Situation report that do trend are preceded by mornings that are already trending. Today is not, so more sideways price action today wouldn't be surprising.

Overnight sideways ranging between 3079.00-3088.00 had broken lower to 3063.00, threatening to open back under Tuesday's final hour entry. That would have been bearish, but the ADP report triggered a recovery back up to the overnight highs. PFE's vaccine news probed Tuesday's late surge high up to 3103.00. Intraday action was less exciting. Most of Wednesday was contained between 3093.00-3112.00, with a late probe attacking 3118.00 closing back within the range. Wednesday afternoon's FOMC Minutes probably inhibited volatility somewhat, but Thursday's Employment Situation report is more reliable for its anxiousness paralyzing price action on the prior afternoon. Greeting the report from multi-session trending ensures a volatile reaction, or even trending. Not reacting down to the news, or quickly absorbing an initially negative knee-jerk reaction, would be likely to trend higher into the weekend. It's too late for reacting down however substantially to actually reverse the trend down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3123.00 3112.00 ...would target 3138.25 3127.25 Bias-down: under 3105.00 3095.00 ...would target 3090.00 3079.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.