Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Dropping from Monday's 2978.50-2979.75 close had fulfilled the 2965.50 target by midnight, and the balance of the night fluctuated widely around it. Opening there Tuesday, within 1 tick of the bias-down target, surged immediately to eventually avoid triggering the bias-down signal. That targeted an offsetting test of its 2981.50 bias-up signal, which was finally attacked during the afternoon bias environment. An offsetting test of the 2986.50 bias-up target wasn't officially put into play, but it was attacked to within 1 tick anyway by a very late surge. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's very late surge above the afternoon's highs came too late to be strong-handed sponsorship. Globex retraced it early down to 2980.25, but only to 2980.25 before bouncing to fresh highs at 2987.50. That's also this morning's 2987.00 bias-up signal, and its resistance was immediately influential. Overnight action since then has trended down, turning negative soon after midnight and then falling into Europe's opens down to 2974.00. A bounce back up to the resistance of yesterday afternoon's highs has also resolved down to fresh lows at 2971.25. CHART. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday's post-open rally never actually recovered positive territory. Breaking higher earlier than its very late surge would have gotten every benefit of the doubt for being strong-handed sponsorship. Instead, avoiding a deeper pullback or backing-and-filling had required gapping up Wednesday, i.e. rallying overnight. And the overnight rally effort has failed. Maybe anxiousness ahead of Fed Chair Powell's congressional testimony had inhibited strong hands from sponsoring a timely breakout yesterday afternoon, and their influence is persisting overnight. That doesn't ensure the eventual resolution to Powell's testimony be up, but it does help to absorb an initially negative knee-jerk reaction. Releasing his opening remarks before 10:00 ET would change the timing of the reaction. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2977.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2976.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2973.00 would be likely to trigger the bias-down signal.

Powell's appearance less effective than his pre-open notes. Fed Chair Powell's remarks were released one hour before the open, after all. This morning's 2976.50 bias-down signal was being tested, and the headline reaction surged up to 2991.00. The reaction extended to 2996.50 pre-open, and then up to 3007.50 post-open. There is no "unfinished business" above. Last week's 3004.00 overnight "new Globex trend extreme" that required intraday retest is now neutralized. Persistently overbought 3-minute RSI left overbought territory before the 10:15 bias timing window. And the gap up is under prior highs. Reversing down from here would not require ever recovering. Reversing down already has gotten to 2996.25. Several ticks lower would likely be irrecoverable today. The first lower attraction would be the close-open gap retracement at 2987.75-2990.50. Otherwise, back above 3002.00 and 3005.00 would target a retest of the 3007.50 high, and probably also its room for noise up to 3011.00.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2996.25 3000.25 ...would target 3004.00 3006.00 Bias-down: under 2986.25 2990.25 ...would target 2979.50 2983.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open lows find support. The pre-open 20-point surge to 2996.50 had extended another 9 points post-open up to 3007.50. Its reaction down during the bias environment tested the gap-to-gap retracement between yesterday's close and today's open at 2987.75-2990.25. Firming through the noon hour stopped only ticks short of touching this afternoon's 3000.25 bias-up signal. It was just touched, but now it's too late to trigger, invoke a grace period, or even to invalidate that this is a no-bias environment. Printing a fresh trend extreme disqualifies today from triggering a trend reversal signal. Another downleg is possible -- and could develop into a deeper drop to 2962.00. Meanwhile, probing above 3000.25 when this window lapses would likely retest 3007.50, probably up to 3011.00.

Wednesday's 18-point gap up to 2994.50 was under last Wednesday and Friday's highs. Probing higher to 2007.50 neutralized "unfinished business" at last week's "new Globex trend extreme. The prior highs each had held tests of the rally's 2997.75 target. And so did Wednesday. No further unfinished business was put into play. The post-open 19-point retracement down to 2988.50 fulfilled expectations for ultimately reacting negatively to Fed Chair Powell's House testimony. One possibility left outstanding was for a retest of the open's high. That's still a possibility Thursday, up to 3011.00. But closing back at, around or under 2997.75 opens the door to an entirely different possibility. No new higher attraction is in-play, resistance held another test, and the rally gained no traction Wednesday afternoon. Not opening strongly Thursday would be vulnerable to at least launching a deeper pullback with potential to 2962.00. Meanwhile, day-two of the semi-annual Congressional testimony often offers predictable setups. Opening remarks tend to walk-back or reinforce the prior day's comments, depending on cue's from Wednesday's market reaction. The market's reaction creates the setups, and we'll identify them in real-time. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2999.00 3002.75 ...would target 3006.00 3009.75 Bias-down: under 2988.50 2992.50 ...would target 2980.25 2984.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.