Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Another narrowly ranging day? The fourth consecutive, and even Wednesday's FOMC policy statement couldn't shake the recent streak. Pre-open probing 1-point above Tuesday's 2478.75 high was reversed down for the balance of the session to test the 2472.00 overnight low. The cash session close blipped-up to 2475.00. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's late blip-up from its fresh low was extended immediately, and then relentlessly, back up to Wednesday's 2478.50 opening high. A nearly 3-point dip into Europe's opens was snapped back up to fresh highs at 2480.00. Another dip is back to hovering under 2478.50. If, then... Once again, neither sellers nor buyers gained traction for their efforts yesterday. So, trending in either direction this morning won't be very credible without a gap up originating it. The open is two hours away, but currently indicated AT the past two sessions' highs. A catalyst for pushing higher could by lying among the several pre-open econ reports scheduled. Pre-open earnings announcements haven't been any help. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2479.50 would be likely to trigger the 2478.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2475.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Thursday at 7 Thursdays morning market tour all systems are go that is the chart room is up we had an issue yesterday with turns out it was Adobe they were experiencing some transmission issues that affected ability to maintain the room and broadcast my connectivity administrative panels were locked out or slow to respond and their audio facilities weren't handling the band with but everything seems go as far as that's concerned today I was the market well because we're interesting. It looks like we've got rained here lots of relatively speaking not huge. Minor but it's all happening overnight there is an overnight dip Thursday into Friday is relatively narrow range and Mondays inside day essentially and said that there is an overnight Gap up Monday night or Tuesday Morning in the Tuesday's relatively narrow day and then Wednesday's essentially inside day I'm in really was almost inside a remarkable and two guards when is sitting at the highs for one thing and for another thing and that is very late the other thing is well sorry that in itself would qualify strictly technically as a session 1 rally I'd be a little suspicious just because it's coming out of a range instead of actually you know trending down through the afternoon and rejecting the trend down what's really big rejected is just the rain Jing but in any case that's a good start to the upside is to maintain a gap up especially if it's extended through the opening 15 minutes not doing that doesn't prevent extending higher anyway we instill open a door with in the highs and having been improved above the eyes pre-open still get that screw it attitude from the market if you don't what is the poster of the two vultures sitting in the desert pardon my French but page they're sent one says the other patience my ass I'm going to kill something instead of waiting for the opening they're going to go for it so I would anticipate if the open even if it's not gapping up so long as it doesn't Gap up and fail to maintain a gap up so long as it doesn't Gap up try extending higher and fail to maintain that extension so long as it just opens and holds through the open I'm still going to be looking for a fresh eyes not going to look for them to maintain will look for a syllable look for that to be doomed to failure anyway because it will be originating from an instant I'm sorry will be originating from a lack of traction without rejecting that lack of tracks without grabbing up in extending higher but in this instance in this pattern I'm going to give it a benefit of the doubt so long as an open towards the upper end of the rain isn't rejected through the open I will be very happy to buy or at least be exposed to the potential whipsaw probing above the highs and extending higher 2484 in just the same way that a reaction down or a gap down and trending I just the same way that would have found buyers I would expect this to find sellers whether its 84 or 90 and it couldn't be today so that those them are the potential pads for today the upside again unusual just want to be clear about it doesn't require maintaining and preferably extending an opening Gap up this is the overnight it's tempered enthusiasm temporary or restrained optimism I'll give it a better for the doubt if it's just slope I'll give it a long as it's and is well with Chad left outstanding at 1670 Target fulfilled it probing largest salon on silver by the way pull back limit now is 1660 to maintain its upside long Bond not following through right up to the  .

Post-open dip takes longer than expected to recover. I described two bullish scenarios during the Market Tour. Of course, one bullish scenario would have maintained a gap up above prior highs, if not also extended it through the open. The second bullish premise would have reacted to gapping up dipping, and then resuming the rally for only the morning. The open's gap up to 2480.00 reacted down immediately. But it wasn't just a dip. Touching 2476.25 reacted up 2 points, only to be resisted by this morning's 2478.00 bias-up signal. Its test reacted down again to 2475.75.

No-bias. With an offsetting test of the bias-down signal in-play.. Except...

The 2478.00 bias-up signal was touched in time to invoke the grace period. Which triggered the bias-up, late. The bullish scenario developed, albeit late and lower. The 2484.00 bias-up target is in-play, but it's not required like an optimal setup would have done. Back under 2476.50 would signal the recovery had failed anyway.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2483.25 2480.25 ...would target  2488.00  2485.25 Bias-down: under  2478.25  2475.50 ...would target 2472.00  2469.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

I'LL BE AWAY FOR THE SESSION'S FINAL HOUR. MARKET WRAP WILL BE EARLY AT 2:34 ET. My signals doubted this morning's gap up, but I didn't. Guess who won that duel. Gapping up above prior highs, maintaining the gap up, and preferably extending it. These are the ingredients to rallying on the morning after buyers fail to gain traction. There are exceptions, but they're doomed to failure. Despite knowing this morning's gap up wasn't extending above prior highs -- let alone maintaining -- I anticipated a shallow or brief pullback to push higher. The pullback was neither shallow nor brief. The gap up had failed to trigger my signal, and its reaction had failed to exploit my leeway. But the 2478.00 bias-up signal triggered late, suggesting that the original scenario may be developing, anyway.

Firming through the morning to within 1 tick of the 2480.00 opening print suddenly found itself triggering a sell signal under 2477.00. And probing under the bias-down signal another 6 ticks lower. Then piercing the 2469.00 bias-down target in time to renew the bias-down signal.

And then continuing the plunge to probe under 2458.50 by 6 ticks. All of the probes were also overlapping 2458.50 which warned us the drop may be pausing.

In fact, a buy signal has triggered above 2460.75 has come within 6 ticks of its 2466.50 target. Oversold RSIs at the low require an eventual retest, and may prevent the target or any further recovery. Retesting the low may also resume the decline. There's no guarantee that a meltdown won't begin immediately. What I can say is that it's unlikely to begin the same session that printed a new trend extreme.

TODAY'S WRAP IS COMING ONE HOUR EARLY BECAUSE I'M AWAY FOR THE FINAL HOUR. Thursday's drop was impressive. Not only for size, but for its productivity. Friday and Monday's 2469.00 "lower prior highs" were tested. And broken down to the prior week's lower prior highs and gap at 2458.50. Breaking any lower would start to risk something much more substantial underway. Closing under 2462.50-2463.50 would signal a trend change. It would be confirmed by not recovering that area Friday, and then require at least an eventual third lower close. Regardless, fresh intraday lows would be likely down to 2455.50 or 2451.00. Closing back above 2469.00 would suggest the drop had ended. At least, that it was bottoming. Probing negative territory Friday morning would still be possible, but likely to recover. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here (which was held one hour early today).

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2477.00  2474.25 ...would target  2483.00  2480.25 Bias-down: under  2468.25 2465.50 ...would target  2461.25  2458.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.