Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday had a tough act to follow, after Thursday morning's relentless 35-point surge to recovery highs. It did well, trending down 35 points Friday morning, and THEN rallying 33 points through the afternoon. Gapping down to 2829.00 immediately rejected Thursday's late weak-handed breakout to 2940.50. Extending down under Thursday afternoon's 2924.50-2933.00 range confirmed the trend was reversing down. Its attraction to Thursday's 2898.50 open was met by noon. The afternoon bounce came within 3 points of the open's high, without gaining gain traction or recovering positive territory. Thursday afternoon's 2924.50-2933.00 range was once again influential -- its upper-end stopped Friday afternoon's recovery, and then closing decisively back under Thursday afternoon's lower-range prevented Friday afternoon's recovery from gaining traction, too. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) A choppy start reached a point of recovery that not only held, but also pushed back hard, and now Friday's low is being probed. Sunday night's open blipped-up into Thursday's afternoon's range to 2926.50, but reacted down sharply to 2913.00. That was recovered by midnight, and improved through Europe's opens to attack the upper-end of Thursday afternoon's range at 2931.00. That 28-point rally was soon retraced, and then reversed to probe under Friday's low to 2895.25. Being a retest of the lower-end of 2896.00-2898.00 support, its reaction is testing the 2903.00 bias-down target as resistance up to 2904.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday's recovery had been rejected just deeply enough to keep alive downside momentum, but it still required reasserting itself this morning. Which it seems to be doing, so long as this retest of Friday's low isn't rejected. A bounce that holds the bias-down signal as resistance would still be likely to resolve down, and probably at an accelerated pace. Already greeting the open under "lower prior highs" at 2883.50 would also be likely to extend down sharply through the morning. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2899.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2903.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2909.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2911.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2915.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

And now corrected, in case the decline wants to resume. The eventual overnight low was 2893.00. Its 14-piont reaction up to 2907.00 was already resolving down to open just under the 2903.00 bias-down target. Extending down post-open stopped optimistically short of touching the pre-open low. Bias-down was renewed. Its renewed bias-down target at 2896.00 was still being tested at 10:15 to avoid being doubly-renewed, but this is a bias-down environment nonetheless. Exiting it above its 2911.25 bias-do signal would isolate the bearishness. Meanwhile a bounce has room to 2911.25 as resistance. Speaking of which, another 14-point bounce like the similar pre-open bounce has failed. At least, it has returned down to the 2896.00-2898.00 support area. Maintaining the decline's momentum would next target 2898.50, and probably also resume the decline if the window were exited at fresh lows. Otherwise, back above 2907.00 would offer one more chance to test 2911.25. And like the potential for fresh lows, testing 2911.25 so late in the window could continue its recovery for a bigger post-open bounce.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2901.25 2901.00 ...would target 2908.25 2908.00 Bias-down: under 2891.75 2891.50 ...would target 2885.25 2885.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

By the grace of a single tick and a single minute. The 2891.50 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. It was tested again within 1 tick when the grace period was lapsing, and actually tested 1 minute after the grace period lapsed. This is a no-bias environment. But 1 tick lower 1 minute earlier would have made it a noN-bias environment. The former requires that 2891.50 define the window's low if tested, which is currently underway. The latter would have allowed breaking under 2891.50 during the bias environment, but not required it. I'm giving a benefit of the doubt to probing lower -- a sell signal is currently in-play, and oversold RSIs at the low require an eventual retest. Extending lower is possible, but preferably not until the bias environment starts lapsing. Meanwhile, any buy signal will require recovering 2896.00-2898.00.

Friday's close back under Thursday afternoon's 2925.25-2933.00 range had prevented buyers from isolating the intraday probe under it, leaving Monday vulnerable to repeating Friday's intraday drop. Which it had already done overnight by a 6-point margin down to 2893.00. A choppy open duplicated Sunday night's initial choppiness. That included resolving down to fresh lows, which the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of last Wed-Thu's gap at 2889.50. Bouncing into the noon hour also resolved down, and sellers gained traction for the effort --  the bias environment lapsed under the noon hour's low, and the final hour was entered even lower at 2872.50. That also probed the 2881.50-2883.50 "lower prior highs" of last week's Mon-Wed range. Holding its support through would have signaled a bounce up to 2896.00-2898.00. Closing under 2881.50-2883.50 would have kept in-play the lower range's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracements at 2860.00-2862.00 and 2846.00-2848.00, if not also resuming the decline to new lows. But 2881.50-2883.50 was not decisively recovered. So, it's interesting that Monday afternoon's sellers gained traction. This suggests downtrending overnight and/or Tuesday morning. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2887.75 2887.25 ...would target 2895.50 2895.00 Bias-down: under 2877.25 2876.75 ...would target 2869.25 2868.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGETED EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.