Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday afternoon had already formed a bullish PM Traction setup. So, Wednesday morning's bias window was likely to trend up, regardless of ranging sideways overnight. Post-open buy signals at 3443.00-3445.00 triggered before rallying to the noon hour's 3469.50 high, and later broke higher to 3478.00. Inhibition ahead of Thursday's Jackson Hole speech was brief -- a pullback to the noon hour's 3462.50 low was recovered through the close to fresh highs at 3483.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Narrowly ranging flat-to-lower has been holding the support of yesterday's 3469.50 noon hour highs. The first low retraced the final hour 3462.00-3483.00 surge by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}. A second low now retraces 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of yesterday's reaction down from the bias environment high. No other leg is available for nearby 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) No new unfinished business has formed overnight to fill the void that was created by neutralizing the last attraction yesterday. No gap up is currently indicated, although a favorable reaction to Fed Chair Powell's 9:10 ET speech could change that. Which it had better, for the rally's sake. Otherwise, if the rally isn't yet resuming from last night's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retrace, then the next lower retracement will be sought. And that's well under yesterday's noon hour lows. I noted in the chaRTroom while it was forming that resolving up from the noon hour low's second test meant there would be nothing bullish about it being tested a third time. But the next lower 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retrace is lower, at 3457.50 or 3450.50. Any lower would attack Tuesday's 3440.00 close, which still wouldn't damage the chart's uptrend, but could start. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3470.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3467.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3460.25 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Missed triggering late bias-up, by seconds. Any sort of Fed day offers so many opportunities... The overnight pullback's cumulative 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} pullbacks had created fertile ground for reacting favorably to Powell's remarks. The knee-jerk reaction surged 21 points to new highs at 3491.00. Retracing the Fed headline reaction through the open got to 3474.00 before a stimulus headline triggered another surge to higher highs testing 3494.00. Retracing all of the stimulus headline reaction has recovered to yet another higher high attacking 3496.00.

Meanwhile, 10:15's no-bias signal was invalidated by recovering the 3484.25 bias-up signal at 10:30. Recovering 3484.25 only several seconds earlier would have invoked the grace period, and then recovering it at 10:30 would have triggered late bias-up. So, I'm assuming the 3497.75 bias-up target is in-play, although it won't become unfinished business if left outstanding.

But since bias is actually invalidated, I'm prepared for this late bounce's rejection. Back under 3484.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down -- again. The no-bias objective's offsetting test of its 3467.50 bias-down signal won't be required, to be met or to hold if tested.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3501.25 signal would target 3513.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3481.25 signal would target 3470.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3504.75 3501.25 ...would target 3516.50 3513.00 Bias-down: under 3484.75 3481.25 ...would target 3474.00 3470.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Now bouncing back up to the bias-down signal. This morning's 3497.75 bias-up target was pierced by 2 ticks at the bias environment high, then retested before noon. The noon hour slid 33 points down to 3465.00. The open's test and retest of 3474.00 as support each had produced higher and higher highs. There was no bullish reason for a third test, which became obvious when probing it by 9 points. Similarly, yesterday's 3462.50 noon hour low and its retest at the final hour entry each had produced higher and higher highs. There is no bullish reason for a third test, which would become obvious by probing it by 12 points down to 3450.50. A lower low under 3465.00 at any time would likely start the process. Avoiding that downside, perhaps more, could need rallying into the final hour back above the afternoon 3481.25 bias-up signal.

Thursday's knee-jerk reaction to Fed Chair Powell's pre-open Jackson Hole remarks surged to 3491.00, but still retraced Wednesday's 3475.00 cash session close through the open. More wide swings probed higher and higher highs up to 3498.25 through the morning. The noon hour's 33-point collapse down to 3465.00 was retraced up to 3496.00. The last half-hour's pullback to 3480.00 still produced a new high close. A path lower was plotted Thursday, if sellers can gain any traction. The morning's 3474.00 low and its retest were probed sharply, and its recovery was sponsored by weak hands. Retesting 3474.00 through a relevant timing window would target Wednesday's lows down to at least 3443.00. Lower objectives could be triggered, too. Meanwhile, Thursday's last-minute pullback neutralized the attraction below at 3481.25 left outstanding by the afternoon's weak-handed recovery. Exploiting it by extending higher into the weekend could be leveraged by Friday Factors to probe sharply higher, perhaps even forming a bullish gap-and-go. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3493.50 signal would target 3508.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3474.00 signal would target 3460.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3497.00 3493.50 ...would target 3511.50 3508.00 Bias-down: under 3477.25 3474.00 ...would target 3463.50 3460.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE