Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE chaRTroom issues are preventing recording. I'm working to resolve them now. <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Resuming last week's decline wasn't immediate. Globex action through the holiday and Monday night had ranged flat-to-higher up to 3447.00. But trending down through Europe's opens probed under Friday's 3348.00 low down to 3337.00 post-open. Resuming the morning's decline wasn't immediate, either. Choppy sideways ranging up to 3379.50 exiting the afternoon bias environment trending down to 3327.50. Shallower choppy ranging through the close ended under the morning's low. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Last night's pattern is highly unusual. Gapping 20 points is common on Sundays, but unheard of intraweek. Gapping down took Globex's first 15 minutes to 3295.00. Then it was all reversed. Positive territory was soon recovered by trending back up relentlessly through midnight. Reacting down sharply probed yesterday's lows again down to 3321.50, which Europe's opens reversed back up. Now yesterday afternoon's highs are being attacked up to 3370.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Despite probing under the next lower attractions at 3320.00 and 3305.00-3308.00 have yet to be tested intraday. It's not required, but it's usual, eventually. Meanwhile, extending the overnight reversal higher to gap up above yesterday afternoon's 3376.50 high could form a bullish session-long rally. But failing to convert a test of 3376.50 into triggering a session-long rally could be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. Maintaining the open back above 3351.00-3365.00 could serve by proxy for having held it through yesterday's close. Regardless, yesterday afternoon's bearish PM Traction setup suggests this morning's bias environment will trend down. That morning dip could co-exist within an otherwise bullish session, but trending down through the open would instead suggest the overnight rally is being rejected. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3366.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3362.00 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3350.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 3347.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3339.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Paradigm shiFt. Reversing overnight from 3295.00 did more than recover back above the decline's next lower 3205.00-3208.00 objective. The recovery did more than just reverse into positive territory above yesterday's 3332.00 cash session close. Gapping up above yesterday afternoon's 3376.50 high also undermined its PM Traction setup. Its bearish influence on this morning's bias environment is not reliable. After trending down into yesterday's close, testing yesterday afternoon's 3376.50 high formed a session-long rally setup. Exiting the open at 9:45 above it would have triggered the bullish setup. Holding its test through 9:45 should be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. Despite its test reacting bearishly down to 3380.75, the rally has only extended higher. Too late to rely on the bullish setup, and dropping back under the open's lows would suggest the bearish influence is appearing.

Meanwhile, bias-up is renewed. No higher objective is required, already testing the 3397.25 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement between Fri-Tue. RSIs diverged negatively into the test, suggesting its resolution will be down. A 3391.25 sell signal is now being tested.

Extending higher anyway has room up to 3401.50-3402.50 as just more of a corrective bounce. Otherwise, any reversal down would be entirely credible for ending the day back under yesterday's lows.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3405.50 signal would target 3417.25 BIAS-DOWN: under 3392.00 signal would target 3377.00 NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3406.50 3405.50 ...would target 3418.25 3417.25 Bias-down: under 3392.75 3392.00 ...would target 3377.75 3377.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Gap up following-through. Gapping up above 3365.00 had rejected by proxy yesterday's close under its 3351.00 counterpart. The morning's reward has been substantial, extending up to 3405.00. The noon hour has extended higher to attack 3422.00. Reminder: The overnight low was 3295.50. Gapping up to yesterday afternoon's 3376.50 high had held through the open to avoid triggering a session-long rally. The subsequent dip's recovery came too late to reinstate the bullish setup. But we should monitor for its development, anyway. Especially since every timing window has probed the prior window's high, leaving two -- and one is likely to probe higher.

Not probing fresh highs during this afternoon's bias environment would make the final hour likelier to extend higher. Conversely, probing fresh highs during this window would be less likely to extend later. Notice that fresh highs throughout are not precluded. But also note that not requiring fresh highs during the final hour would make it vulnerable to reversing down.

All of which supposes the session-long rally is actually governing, despite not being triggered when it mattered. I would still monitor for any sell signal, since the pattern otherwise remains vulnerable to probing back under yesterday's lows.

**ROLLING COVERAGE FORWARD TO DEC, WHICH TRADES AT A 9.75 DISCOUNT FROM SEP** Basis Sep: Gapping down Tuesday night immediately extended to the decline's next targets at 3305.00-3308.00. Reversing up almost relentlessly opened back at Tuesday afternoon's 3376.50 high to form a session-long rally. Not triggering the bullish setup didn't prevent fulfilling it, probing higher through all but one timing window. Fulfilling the final hour's fresh high up to 3424.00 became vulnerable to reversing down. The Position-squaring window's collapse down to 3389.00 retraced the morning's bias environment entry. Basis Dec, not Sep: Even without its late collapse, Wednesday's rally would have accomplished nothing bullish. No relevant resistance was recovered, and no bullish PM Traction formed. Wednesday's bullish development was its gap up back above 3355.00 3365.00, the counterpart of the 3341.00 3351.00 support that was broken through Tuesday's close. That was rewarded by the intraday rally. Session-long setups often control the next morning's bias environment. So, unless Thursday's open were to gain downside traction, our premise will be for a morning rally. That wouldn't preclude gapping down, or reversing back down later. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3402.00 signal would target 3424.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3372.75 signal would target 3355.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3412.50 3402.00 ...would target 3435.00 3424.50 Bias-down: under 3383.25 3372.75 ...would target 3366.25 3355.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE