0-=-092yujkl]\Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's noon hour plunge to 2140.75 had tried extending lower during the afternoon bias environment. But the fresh session extreme at 2137.25 was rejected by the bias environment exiting back above its 2149.25 relative high up to 2153.50. Although this short-squeeze setup often produces a last-hour surge, this time it didn't. The decline didn't resume, as dipping back down to 2153.00 -- a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back down to the low -- ranged choppily through the final hour. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the low. Overnight action's new info... Gradually gravitating back down toward yesterday's lows was then pushed to fresh lows at 2135.75 as Europe's opens had their first chance to sympathize with yesterday's noon hour plunge. Gradually working back up into the overnight range has extended back to unchanged, briefly probing higher to 2149.50. If, then... Retesting yesterday afternoon's oversold RSIs overnight suffices to neutralize their attraction. Now greeting Friday's open in positive territory can still fulfill yesterday afternoon's short-squeeze setup, after all. Almost no post-open probe back under yesterday's low can be tolerated if the morning intends to rally. Also, this being a Friday, the morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour. Persistent, and aggressive in whichever direction, especially greeting the week's last session with a big drop back to relevant support that has already been productive once. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2138.00 would be likely to trigger the 2140.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2143.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Sellers kinda sorta marginalized. A morning rally would begin immediately and aggressively, essentially exploiting yesterday afternoon's short-squeeze setup without further delay. That was the likeliest character for extending higher this morning. And the open did surge 5 points. But it didn't follow-through. Which wasn't necessarily bearish -- resuming yesterday's decline was required to be as abrupt as a valid rally effort. Dipping to 2150.50 through several econ reports wasn't considered to be more than backing-and-filling. Bias-up didn't trigger, but neither did no-bias. The 2155.50 bias-up signal was overlapped at 10:15 to invoke the grace period. Overlapping it at 10:30 avoided triggering a bias. This is a noN-bias environment. The bias-up signal need not define the range's upper-end, and its 2162.00 bias-up target didn't require being met. None of which has prevented extending higher anyway. Fresh post-open highs are probing almost 2 points above the bias-up target to 2164.50, retracing back to and through the origin of yesterday's plunge. Sellers are very likely marginalized for the day. And despite its slow start (following a fast start), any rally today is likely to be substantial.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2170.75 2163.75 ...would target 2176.50  2169.50 Bias-down: under  2163.25  2156.25 ...would target 2157.50  2150.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Giving the upside benefit of little doubt. The bias environment exit is probing above its 2163.75 bias-up signal. Only by a couple of ticks, and probing above it began only  a couple of minutes prior to coming within 10-15 minutes of the bias environment lapsing. So, I'm willing to dismiss that from being "no-bias trending." Especially since this morning's behavior suggests the rally will extend substantially today. Meanwhile, no-bias Friday afternoons don't often suddenly resume a morning trend. This is contrary to the morning's suggestion of extending the rally. Back under 2162.00 would also be contrary -- so contrary as to target 2155.50 and lower.

Friday's late dive originated too late to be predictive. It was also too shallow within 3 minutes of the cash session close to be predictive. It did extend to levels that would have been relevant if printed earlier in the session. Sunday night or Monday might still do the same and be entirely valid. But the recovery otherwise remains capable of fulfilling that last bit of unfinished business above before completing its topping pattern. We'll discuss that and more at the Saturday Review. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

The link to this weekend's Saturday Review will be sent overnight.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2173.00 2166.00 ...would target  2179.75  2173.00 Bias-down: under  2161.75  2155.00 ...would target 2156.75  2149.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.