Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's pullback day that had been dictated by Monday's Gap-and-pause setup had extended down sharply overnight to attack 3291.00. But Wednesday's 3332.00 open had recovered positive territory. The influence of Monday's bullish setup persisted until the morning's bias environment exit. The afternoon eventually probed sharply higher anyway, getting to 3384.00 before Covid-stimulus headlines triggered a collapse down to 3329.00. The 3347.00 cash session close back under Monday's highs prevented a breakout -- futures slid to 3334.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) A meaningful advance in the stimulus talks was announced post-close, triggering a gap up at the Globex open. Wednesday's last-minute quarter-end slide from 3364.00 was soon recovered almost entirely. Wednesday afternoon's 3384.00 high was recovered almost entirely through Europe's opens. Its reaction down recovered to probe yesterday's high attacking 3387.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Yesterday's rally and its failure shared a common catalyst -- the on-again stimulus headlines. Rallying overnight on more of its news suggests that today's price action will be similarly vulnerable. Fully retracing yesterday afternoon's headline reaction also neutralizes the overbought RSIs left outstanding there, and their attraction, so more positive developments may be needed to extend higher. Having re-set yesterday afternoon's downleg by rallying overnight, retracing it again would greet tomorrow's Employment Situation report from a position of weakness. Meanwhile, having trended down into yesterday's close, gapping up today to and/or through yesterday afternoon's high would form a session-long rally setup. Exiting the opening window above it would trigger the setup. Not exiting the open above it could be as bearish as the setup would have been bullish. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3381.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3374.00 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3366.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3360.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3353.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Session-long rally setup rejected. Rallying overnight eventually touched 3388.00. Its reaction down was recovered through the open to within 2 ticks before reversing down sharply. Its collapse tested 3356.00. Reversing down rejected multiple relevant resistance:

Yesterday afternoon's 3384.00 high. Gapping up to and/or through it could have formed a session-long rally. Rather than a reward, holding its test through 9:45 makes the consequence this morning likely to be as bearish as it would have been bullish.

This morning's 3374.00 bias-up target. Exceeding it through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal for higher targets. Not exceeding it is otherwise irrelevant, except when also rejecting...

This morning's 3360.25 bias-up signal. Actually, despite probing more than 4 points under it, still testing the bias signal within 3 minutes of 10:15 invoked the grace period. And now still testing it at 10:30 has avoided triggering bias-up or no-bias.

This is a noN-bias environment. No requirement to test the bias-up target (although it was just tested anyway), or for an offsetting test of the bias-down parameter(s). This window would normally behave like a no-bias, if not for already rejecting the session-long rally setup. The morning should at least absorb bounces, if not also trend down. Back above 3377.00 could produce fresh session highs.

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3381.25 signal would target 3393.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3362.50 signal would target 3349.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3392.25 3381.25 ...would target 3350.50 3339.50 Bias-down: under 3373.50 3362.50 ...would target 3360.25 3349.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

Stuck between a rock and a hard place. The bias timing window's slide down to 3356.00 has so far held. Not extending lower doesn't prevent extending down later, so long as the slide hasn't yet been rejected. And it hasn't yet been rejected. Reacting up to 3377.00 at the bias environment exit didn't trigger any buy signals. Retesting 3377.00 coming out of the noon hour touched a buy signal. But despite rising bottoms off of the morning's low, no upside traction is forming. Trending up to fresh highs isn't likely this afternoon, not while price action becomes paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's Employment Situation report. Retracing recent price action is likelier. Regardless, the next hour is likely to be defined between its 3362.50-3381.25 bias signals until the no-bias window starts lapsing.

Wednesday night's rally recovered all of the intraday collapse down to 3329.00. Wednesday's high was probed by 4 points up to 3388.00, which was attacked post-open before reacting down again to 3356.00. Bouncing through the noon hour up to 3377.00 could have ranged out the session if not for a stimulus headline. The knee-jerk reaction triggered another collapse to 3350.00, which ranged sideways back up to 3375.00 through the close. Thursday's session developed almost exclusively in positive territory. Failing to close above a prior high defines the session as ineffectual optimism. The setup triggers a timing mechanism that must essentially extend higher immediately to avoid reversing down. Afternoon anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report anticipated the lack of trending Thursday -- especially after its gap up held Wednesday's high to avoid triggering a session-long rally. Gapping up Friday could suggest Thursday's hesitation was last-minute pessimism, and be likely to trend up into the weekend. Friday Factors could similarly exacerbate a reaction down to reverse the rally from last week's lows. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3377.00 signal would target 3393.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3360.25 signal would target 3347.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3388.00 3377.00 ...would target 3404.50 3393.50 Bias-down: under 3370.00 3360.25 ...would target 3357.75 3347.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE