Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's likelihood for resuming the rally was derailed by a China trade headline. It triggered an 11-13 point spike down to fresh lows at 3063.00 that needed to be absorbed before a rally could start. Which we had expected the morning to do -- absorb opening weakness and then rally. But there was already a weak open, under Tuesday's 3070.00 lows down to 3067.00. It was already absorbed, and it had barely begun to rally. The extra drop added a degree of difficulty, but it was absorbed without extending down. The headline's knee-jerk reaction was recovered entirely as the session closed at 3074.00-3076.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Initially pulling back to attack 3070.00, Globex had recovered to 3076.00 through midnight. Then came China trade headlines (tariffs being cancelled) that triggered a 15-point surge up to 3092.50. Ranging sideways through Europe's opens has been centered around 3088.00. Being a singular surge, no "new Globex trend extreme" has yet qualified. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Absorbing yesterday's headline reaction left the rally's templates remained largely intact for Thursday. Post-open rallying is still likely, but now already testing the rally's targets overnight opens the door to backing-and-filling this morning. The outstanding "new Globex trend extreme" at 3084.00 must still print intraday to be neutralized. Exceeding its room for noise past 3088.00 would next target 3093.50. The market has already spent three sessions backing-and-filling Monday's gap up, so already re-entering another phase of backing-and-filling this morning is unlikely, not without a headline's artificial catalyst, or else probably not organically any deeper than 3080.00. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3082.00 would be likely to trigger the 3077.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3088.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3083.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal.

Renewed bias-up target met. The first trade was made easy by opening at 3088.00, which is the room for noise above the 3083.75 required retest. Opening at 3088.00 wasn't any likelier to extend or to reverse, but extending immediately was likely to probe overnight highs up to 3093.50. So, quickly triggering a 3090.00 buy signal almost immediately probed its objective by 1 point up to 3094.50. That might be today's easiest trade, but not necessarily its most predictable setup. Holding 3093.50 is vulnerable to backing-and-filling, retracing the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-2-gap around 3080.00. That would still be in positive territory, and after expending so much selling pressure to get there, would be vulnerable to resuming the rally. Otherwise, extending higher into the noon hour could continue rallying into the afternoon. The rally's next higher objective that we discussed during this weekend's Saturday Review can be fine-tuned to 3135.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3096.25 3095.00 ...would target 3102.75 3101.50 Bias-down: under 3087.25 3086.00 ...would target 3081.75 3080.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Another China trade headline rocks the boat. RSIs diverged negatively on a break to this morning's 3096.50 high. Its reaction down to 3090.00 was on the verge of collapsing to the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap fill around 3080.00. Then an otherwise meaningless and redundant China trade headline triggered a spike up to 3097.00 at noon. It was largely retraced almost immediately, and entirely retraced at the bias environment's entry. Now that another position of strength has formed at fresh highs, a single window can be devoted to backing-and-filling without jeopardizing the rally. So, 3080.00 may be visited, after all. Otherwise, back above 3093.50 would signal that the rally is resuming already.

[MARKET WRAP WAS HELD EARLY AT 3:13 ET] Sunday night's "new Globex trend extreme" at 3083.75 had required an eventual intraday retest. Monday's setup had forecast Tuesday would be a pullback session. Allowing the pullback a little more room Wednesday morning the rally was likely to resume the rally, targeting Sunday night's high up to 3088.00 or 3093.50. Wednesday's extra headline-induced drop probed the morning's 3067.00 low down to 3063.00, delaying the schedule to Thursday. But another headline upset that schedule, too, already surging overnight to within 1 tick of 3093.50. The schedule got back on track, as the 3088.00 open quickly extended up to 3094.50. But for two probes of higher highs up to 3097.00, the session ranged sideways back to 3089.50. An organic pullback to the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap 3080.50 area remained likely -- even before another China trade headline triggered a 9-point spike down to 3081.50, and its retest got to 3079.00. The gap-to-gap test held for the day. The headline's timing was on the cusp between timing windows as the bias environment lapsed. That makes it difficult to attract either counter-trend sponsorship or reinforcements. Despite the week adhering almost perfectly to each prior day's setup, Friday's session is more of a wild card. Resuming the rally could extend to 3135.00, while another pullback could target 3066.00 or 3044.50. Thursday afternoon's sellers did gain traction, thanks to the headline reaction, so rallying would be less likely without gapping up or greeting Friday's open in rally mode. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3089.25 3088.00 ...would target 3094.75 3093.50 Bias-down: under 3079.00 3077.75 ...would target 3071.50 3070.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.