Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) A thinly-traded abbreviated session has too few relevant inputs to offer any reliably predictive output. Tuesday's Gap-and-pause sequence was fulfilled by spending all of Friday morning's bias environment at fresh highs up to 3643.00. Noon hour lows filled the gap back to Wednesday's 3627.00 close. Its recovery tested the 3638.75 gap up to within 3 ticks at the early close. The morning's bias-up signal left outstanding its 3648.25 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's gap up to the 3643.25 bias-up signal spiked up to within 6 ticks of the 3653.50 bias-up target. Reversing down began almost as quickly, holding support at the 3264.50 bias-down target through midnight. Resuming the drop extended down sharply to within 1 tick of Wednesday's 3602.50 open. Bouncing through Europe's opens had held resistance at the 3264.50 bias-down target, until finally slingshotting up to the 3631.75 bias-down signal's resistance. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) While I was describing in the chaRTroom that the overnight pattern's pessimism may be an optical illusion, another recovery leg developed to help prove my point. But also to put the point to an important test. As for the point, the overnight range's eclipse of Friday's half-day range had each been equidistant around the Wed-Fri range. i.e. Last night's post-open reaction down didn't actually extend any further below pre-Thanksgiving lows than the opening surge's probe above post-Thanksgiving highs. Also, the largest overnight trend is by far its downleg, which mostly developed in negative territory. Optical illusion of sellers being more productive than reality, which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. Sellers could start to be more productive, especially if this recovery back up to the bias-down signal's resistance can't extend higher. And there is no bullish reason to revisit Friday's lows post-open for any duration, not without setting a negative tone that could trend back down for 2-3 days. So, a morning rally should start gaining visibility soon if bias-down is going to be rejected. And after so much overnight pessimism to such depths, avoiding bias-down would surprise the market, and could be very productive -- not only this morning, but also for 2-3 days. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Preliminary indications are ending as we migrate to the new format that addresses this differently.

REMINDER: I'M AWAY TODAY DURING THE LAST 2 HOURS. This morning I detailed all of the overnight selling pressure down to 3602.75 that had not gained traction for its effort. Recovering up to the 3631.75 bias-down signal was only half the battle, and its war would be lost if triggered. A pre-open blip-up snapped back down through the open, and through the 3624.50 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal. Just returning to Friday's 3626.25 low was bearish, next targeting Wednesday's 3615.25 low. That coincided with today's 161.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap extension. And it wasn't even acknowledged on the way down. A much more significant drop has extended down to 3592.25, taking RSIs deeply oversold. Persistently oversold 3-minute RSI and simultaneously oversold RSIs at the low is undermining a bounce testing 3608.00. Isolating this morning's dip could recover positive territory today. Meanwhile, a fresh low down to 3588.00 is likely. And if not recovered, then the next attraction below is 3570.50 and 3556.00. Even at the lower candidates, less than one week of selling will have been retraced, or its subsequent buying corrected, so a top is not being considered.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3614.50 signal would target 3624.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3597.00 signal would target 3588.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3616.75 3614.50 ...would target 3626.25 3624.00 Bias-down: under 3599.25 3597.00 ...would target 3590.25 3588.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

REMINDER: I'M AWAY FROM SCREENS THROUGH THE CLOSE. MARKET WRAP WILL BE SENT BEFORE TONIGHT'S GLOBEX RE-OPEN. Also, scroll down for Bitcoin update (I'm concerned with the degree of aggression in today's retest of prior highs being double-toppish). Bouncing through the noon hour has been limited to testing this afternoon's 3614.50 bias-up signal. It was tested within 3 minutes of 1:20 to invoke the grace period. Its alternative doesn't require trending back down, but there is an attraction at simultaneously oversold RSIs at the 3592.25 low. Triggering bias-up cleanly would have gotten out of its orbit by reversing momentum up. The low need not be retested today, but an afternoon downdraft would be attracted to it. Extending down would next target the 3588.00 bias-down target, and any lower wouldn't find much support until 3570.50. Recovering anyway, whether as no-bias trending or after the bias window begins lapsing, could end the day in positive territory -- or be likely to extend higher tomorrow. BITCOIN: This morning I described the rally underway as credible for producing a new high because its interim basing was not limited to a quick reaction. But the rally steepened and already finds itself probing prior highs. The optimism that was restrained at the pullback's low is appearing anyway at the high's retest. The position is stronger to absorb another reaction, but the rally is less likely to extend without pause, and back under the interim low would be very damaging. Having said all of that, extending higher through the next 24-hour cycle would be very bullish, and suggest a massive days-long surge underway.

Sunday night's openning surge to 3692.00 was rejected quickly, and substantially, trending down to 3602.50 at the overnight low. Recovering to 3635.50 pre-open repeated the pattern, soon falling to 3592.25 at the morning's low. Still tracking the pattern, another recovery got to 3623.50 into the final hour. Ranging sideways through the 3621.00 cash session close spiked up to 3632.50. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at the intraday low. The same timing window retraced substantially all of its reaction, but an eventual retest remains outstanding. The rally is free to extend higher meanwhile. But not extending higher would be vulnerable to retesting Monday's low. A retest of Monday's low would target 3588.00. Any lower would be attracted to 3570.50 or 3356.50. Buyers didn't gain traction Monday, so extending higher Tuesday morning all but requires gapping up. And not extending higher Tuesday morning would be vulnerable to retesting Monday's lows. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3625.50 signal would target 3635.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3610.25 signal would target 3599.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3627.75 3625.50 ...would target 3637.75 3635.50 Bias-down: under 3612.50 3610.25 ...would target 3601.25 3599.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE