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(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)Day Trading Pre-Open Plan - 6:37 AM
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Stock Market Opening Trends - 10:25 AM
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Day Trading Mid-Day Thoughts - 11:54 AM
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Still overlapping the 2065.00-2066.00 renewed bias-up target at 10:15 prevented triggering a doubly-renewed bias-up signal. But it's still a bias-up environment. And it was extended up to 2078.00.
The morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour on Fridays. But a relatively shallow pullback can still develop. Its objective would be 2067.50, which could become deeper, but probably not reverse the trend back down down.
Even if a pullback is only shallow, resuming the rally today is not assured. Marginalizing sellers doesn't necessarily create a vacuum that sucks in buyers. And RSIs aren't overbought at the current high, so it doesn't require a retest.
But if the rally were to resume today, then its objective would be to test 2082.00. Otherwise, just a normal deeper pullback would likely hold the 2058.00-2059.00 area.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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Closing Thoughts - 4:53 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:54 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Pre-open dive is retraced by the open, reversed through it.
Payrolls had triggered an 8-point surge to retest the 2062.75 overnight highs. Its reaction down was exacerbated by OPEC news that sent Crude Oil down. But a pre-open test of 2047.75 sent price back up to greet the open at this morning's 2053.50 bias-up signal.
Triggering the 2056.50 buy signal extended higher to and through the overnight highs up to 2069.75. Its reaction down to 2063.00 has been ranging around the 2065.00-2066.00 renewed bias-up target. This is a bias-up environment, whose renewed target has been met -- narrowly missing a doubly-renewed bias-up.
Overbought RSIs at the 2069.75 high require its eventual retest, which should include 2070.50. Avoiding its retest would further suggest that any other pullback will recover. Meanwhile, its retest isn't precluded from extending higher than 2070.50.
opening rally extends. And extends.
FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
1077.50
2076.25
...would target
2083.25
2082.00
Bias-down: under
2067.25
2066.00
...would target
2062.25
2061.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Did Friday's rally finish correcting the week's earlier plunge, so that the decline could resume? Or, were relevant levels recovered that invalidate the decline, and allow the rally to resume? A little of both, actually. Which is why this weekend's Saturday Review will be focused on what immediate price action Monday can differentiate between the two paths, the bigger picture, and to review any chart requests you may have. I'll send the meeting's link that morning.
Friday's action was reviewed with other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording here:
https://roddavid10.mitel-nhwc.com/join/kfysyhj
MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2093.75
2092.50
...would target
2099.25
2098.00
Bias-down: under
2081.75
2080.50
...would target
2075.75
2074.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.