DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&ADay Trading Pre-Open Plan - 7:23 AM
Edit
if not for Thursday's open quickly collapsed on the way down to 3103.00. The morning's 3100.50 bias-down target was left outstanding, another bait & switch. Rallying to the 3117.75 afternoon bias-up signal's resistance was met by a 9-point plunge, triggered by China trade headline. More impressive was its relatively quick and complete retracement up to 3119.50 -- the prior afternoon's high, which held again through Thursday's 3118.00 close.
Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex)
Thursday afternoon's recovery continued firming through the Globex open. Spiking up after midnight touched 3127.50. Hovering since then has held above intraday highs, while repeatedly attacking the spike's high.
If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Friday's open will be greeted by the earlier Employment Situation report's reaction. Regardless of the "unfinished business" at 3100.50, gapping up Friday would still be likely to extend higher intraday. Not already gapping up Friday doesn't have much room below, if any, before being likely to at least test 3100.50. And testing 3100.00-3103.00 intraday must hold or recover it through the close to maintain the recovery's potential. .
First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters)
There are no preliminary bias levels ahead of an Employment Situation report. (Although I do discuss in the Market Tour one level worth knowing.)
Stock Market Opening Signals - 10:53 AM
Edit
morning's 3021.25 bias-up signal. It reacted up immediately to come within 1 tick of the 3135.00 objective I had described during the Market Tour.
The reaction didn't stop there, and extended to greet the open up to 3139.50. Post-open action only extended into the bias environment, attacking 3147.00. Now the pre-10:15 high is being exceeded to test 3148.25.
A Gap-and-Go setup would form from not reversing down before the bias environment begins lapsing. That tends to borrow from the next window, so the afternoon bias environment behaves like its sentiment has Got-up-and-Went. Afternoon trending would be unlikely, or likely to reverse back into the range.
Today is also vulnerable to Friday Factors. The morning's bias tends to persist through the noon hour, and the afternoon often drifts. Potential for any attempted reversal will depend on the pattern coming out of the noon hour.
Tonight's Market Predictions - 11:59 AM
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Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 2:24 PM
Edit
recorded and published regularly, but bias parameters will not be updated after that. Market Wrap will be posted that evening.
Whether peaking before the bias is signaled, or extending through the bias environment, Gap-and-Go setups tend to flatline through the close. Or, a corollary thereof. So, trending is unlikely to be attempted, and trending attempts are likely to reverse back to the range's other end.
Without a headline catalyst, opportunities are slim. This morning's post-open follow-through extended throughout the bias environment. The setup already borrows from the afternoon sentiment just to extend through the open. Today's instance left no scraps on the table, only a narrow 3-point range.
That range is now trying to break lower. Be careful selling it. Even without the Gap-and-Go setup's reluctance to trend, Friday afternoons are already difficult to attract new sponsorship. Be careful getting too exposed short, or tolerating too much of a bounce, and be prepared to enter long on the sell signal's failure.
Closing Thoughts - 4:32 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Big follow-through to payrolls reaction.
The knee-jerk reaction to the Employment Situation report blipped-down to touch this
FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
3152.00
3152.00
...would target
3159.50
3159.50
Bias-down: under
3144.50
3144.75
...would target
3137.75
3138.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS
.
BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Gap-and-Go meets Friday Factors.
REMINDER: I'm unavoidably away from the market Monday. The pre-open Market Tour will be
REMINDER: I'm unavoidably away from the market Monday. The pre-open Market Tour will be recorded and published regularly, but bias parameters will not be updated after that. Market Wrap will be posted that evening.
Gapping up 21 points from Thursday's 3118.00 close extended higher through the morning up to 3150.50. The Gap-and-Go setup had made the afternoon likely to only hover. Friday Factors combined with that influence to only allow retracing down to a very late 3144.50 pullback low.
Once again, extending the rally without delay Monday is likely to begin by gapping up. Fresh highs would next target 3165.00, possibly resuming a rally next targeting 3203.00. Correcting Friday's rally first is possible, if not also likely without gapping up. And the likely pullback objective would be 3127.75 where another upleg could begin.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.
MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
3150.50
3150.50
...would target
3157.50
3157.50
Bias-down: under
3141.25
3141.50
...would target
3132.75
3133.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
.
BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.