Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's attack on 3664.00 was recovered to open Tuesday back above the 3672.00-3677.00 lower prior highs that had contained Sunday night's dip. Rallying through the afternoon bias environment up to 3708.00 left outstanding the morning's 3674.00 late bias-down target as unfinished business. Ranging narrowly sideways through the final hour fulfilled Friday's required new high close by a 2-point margin at 3702.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Tuesday night's open gapped up to the 3708.00 intraday high. Ranging narrowly sideways between 3705.00-3715.00 has been centered on this morning's 3709.00 bias-up signal. The open was a singular surge, and hasn't been followed by any higher complexity that would require intraday retest. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday fulfilled Friday's requirement for another new trend extreme close. Only by the narrowest of margins, and with the session's upside momentum missing from its last 90 minutes, produced by a rally that gained no traction for its effort. Similarly, last night's new highs lack any momentum. Tuesday afternoon's Head & Shoulders is being ignored overnight, but exiting the open back under the pattern's 3699.25 neckline can still trigger its pullback. Not already reversing down through the open could make today rally steeply, with the first 15 minutes dictating either path. Upside attractions beyond the bias parameters are 3747.00-3753.00, and downside attractions are at 3691.00, then potentially well under yesterday's 3664.00 overnight low. Too-late-to-break and Globex-flip setups are being monitored. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Huge last-minute paradigm shift. The 3705.00-3715.00 range's lower-end was still being tested through the open. A blip-up to 3710.50 drifted back down again to the range's lower-end. The 3709.00 bias-up signal's resistance was holding as the 10:15 bias timing window approached. An offsetting test of its 3695.00 bias-down signal was becoming likelier. So likely, that price suddenly collapsed to probe 3695.00 by 5 ticks. And testing the bias-down signal within 3 minutes of the 10:15 invoked the grace period. Bias-down wasn't likely to trigger. So much selling pressure was just expended, down to support, at a relevant timing window, that the burden of proof was still on sellers. Reacting up 11-1/2 points by 10:30 proved the premise. Late no-bias triggered. An offsetting test of its bias-up signal isn't required, as the signal was late, and it was already tested. But the window is still likely to be defined by its signals. That said, probing under the bias-down signal is likely to test 3691.00. Its test would likely hold as support, or else threaten a much deeper break lower.

WED P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3701.75 signal would target 3711.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3687.50 signal would target 3677.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3702.75 3701.75 ...would target 3712.50 3711.50 Bias-down: under 3689.00 3688.00 ...would target 3678.00 3677.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

And now being probed. A pullback today could have been satisfied with testing 3691.00. Lower supports could challenge a deeper pullback. But any deeper was likely to be a lot deeper. There was already no bullish reason to revisit 3672.00-3677.00 intraday or overnight, and it is now being probed down to 3666.00 while 1-minute RSI diverges positively. The next lower candidate for ending the pullback is 3556.00, then 3631.00-3635.00. Back above 3677.00 would start to signal a bigger bounce may already be underway.

REMINDER: FRONT-MONTH ROLLS FORWARD TO MAR, WHICH TRADES CURRENTLY AT AN 8-POINT DISCOUNT FROM DEC. Tuesday night's head-fake gapped back up to the 3708.00 (basis Dec, 3700.00 basis Mar) intraday high and probed higher to 3715.00 (basis Dec, 3707.00 basis Mar) but only ranged narrowly sideways. Breaking lower at Wednesday's open trended down to the afternoon bias environment's 3659.50 (basis Dec, 3651.50 basis Mar) low. Ranging choppily sideways closed at 3660.25 (basis Dec, 3661.00 basis Mar). ===   ALL PRICE QUOTES NOW BASIS MAR   === Tuesday afternoon's lack of upside momentum had already anticipated a pullback Wednesday. Ranging sideways overnight, despite gapping up, made a pullback likelier. It could be either shallow down to 3683.00, or else be vulnerable to something much deeper at 3623.00-3628.00. The latter path is in-play. Probably only one interim candidate for ending the pullback prematurely remains outstanding at 3635.00. There was potential for holding 3648.00, but that's now unlikely since Wednesday afternoon stopped optimistically short of touching it. I'll give a bias-up every benefit of the doubt if one triggers. But meanwhile the sentiment divide between broader market drop and IPO euphoria (DASH, etc.) isn't likely to end so soon after being revealed. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3667.75 signal would target 3680.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3653.75 signal would target 3643.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3675.75 3667.75 ...would target 3688.00 3680.00 Bias-down: under 3661.75 3653.75 ...would target 3651.00 3643.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL, AND BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE