Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Greeting Tuesday's open in rally mode wasn't bearish; nor was gapping up. But already fulfilling the doubly-renewed bias-up up target did increase potential for backing-and-filling, if only because the rally had room for a correction without damaging the chart. The open missed a couple of opportunities to resume the rally, so the pullback began. But it extended into Monday's range (probing under the overnight low) when the rally needed the pullback to stop optimistically short. And a late bounce back above Monday's high settled back under it to render Tuesday's optimism as ineffectual. A second-day confirmation to Monday's recovery attempt failed its own attempt. But similar to Monday's recovery that had stopped short of closing above a prior high, Tuesday's reversal avoided closing under a prior low, keeping momentum in flux. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday's 2621.50 low had printed during the afternoon bias environment, which was exited in rally mode. Its 2661.00 peak was already reversing down into the close and got to 2628.00. Price action since then has trended up relentlessly, probing yesterday's late bounce up to 2667.00 -- and threatening to gap up above Monday's highs. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The burden of proof is back on buyers. Tuesday's otherwise normal pullback extended too deep when China trade war rhetoric hit the headlines. Its influence on price is already retraced, so its attraction above is already neutralized. Recovering it again through the open could be credible for resuming Monday's rally effort. Meanwhile, the overnight bounce is a function of more China trade war headlines, and not maintaining its gain through another timing window would indicate more vulnerability to sellers regaining control. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2651.50 would be unlikely to exceed the 2655.00 bias-up target through 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2649.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2645.75 bias-up signal at 10:15.

Retesting yesterday's highs. The overnight rally was punctuated by a pre-open surge up to 2677.00. Just a few ticks under yest4erday's pre-open high, which we assumed to be pessimism and potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Its post-open reaction down broke under 2666.00 and met its minimum likely target at 2661.50. Then the entire reaction was retraced to touch yesterday's pre-open high. Touch, and only touch, which is still pessimism and potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. Maintaining the upside momentum would keep in-play 2687.00, which is the likely minimum target for having confirmed backing-and-filling to the open. Extending that can be even more rewarding -- potentially 2702.50 and 2725.25. Meanwhile, another reaction down is retesting 2666.00, whose break no longer has so much a target as a consequence, that the recovery is failing.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2680.50 2681.00 ...would target 2686.50 2687.00 Bias-down: under 2665.25 2666.00 ...would target 2657.75 2658.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS BETWEEN 1:30-3:00, AND BACK FOR THE FINAL HOUR... The minimum likely upside objective is also this afternoon's 2687.00 bias-up target. And it is being met as the bias timing window is entered. This is still a bias-up environment, but 2687.00 does represent resistance that can force even the most bullish rally to correct. We'll see. This morning's rally has been a choppy uptrend already, with plenty of overlapping pullbacks forming an ongoing series of higher highs and higher lows. A single corrective dip has room down to 2672.75-2674.00 while still being likely to resolve up. Resolving up from such a singular dip could be very aggressive, triggering a short-squeeze as a round of hold-outs capitulate to get long. Otherwise, extending a pullback under 2671.00 could fill the open's gap to either of its proxies, 2658.25 or 2650.50.

Extending the rally to its next higher objective at 2687.00 Wednesday would largely depend upon unbridled optimism. This was in contrast to the prior session, whose unbridled optimism only inhibited buyers from reinforcing the move, and attracted counter-trend sellers. Attacking the 2678.00 prior high to within 3 points was retraced to 2661.50 support, and then recovered to trend -- more like trudge -- higher. The 2687.00 target was met to within 3 ticks and its attraction was neutralized. Breaking back under the 2681.00 bias-up signal during the bias-up environment extended down to its 2658.25 likely target as the bias environment began lapsing. Finally breaking lower as the proxy window lapsed extended down to the next lower potential target at 2650.50. None of which would have been likely had the bias-up target not been neutralized first. Still, retracing 2681.00 is likelier than not. The rally's next objectives would be 2702.50 and 2725.25. Dipping deeper overnight probably must recover before the open for the rally to extend higher. Otherwise, while not necessarily a striaght shot down, the next lower attraction at 2620.00 probably shouldn't be revisited unless the intent were to resume the decline. NOTE: Coverage will roll forward at Thursday's open to the Mar (H) 2019 contract, which trades at a 4-point premium to Dec (Z) 2018. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2260.75 2665.25 ...would target 2672.50 2676.75 Bias-down: under 2647.00 2651.25 ...would target 2639.25 2643.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.