Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying overnight through Monday afternoon’s 3229.25 high by 2 points up to 3231.25 was retraced in time to avoid forming a “session-long rally” setup. But the 3228.50 open had a move in mind anyway, and suddenly plunged back through Monday’s 3224.25 last-minute low to 3222.50. The 3224.75 bias-down signal ultimately held through its grace period, putting into play an offsetting test of its 3229.50 bias-up signal. But there was no more move in mind, and the balance of the session held a narrow 2-point through its 3226.25 early close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Globex was closed through Christmas. Gapping up last night by 1 point through 3227.00 quickly extended to within 1 tick of Tuesday's 3231.25 pre-open high. Tuesday's "unfinished business" was neutralized. Another 2-point range since then has included a momentary touch of 3231.25 but no more. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday's 3231.25 pre-open high was itself well under the prior night's 3234.25 "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest. The biggest challenge to attempting that today would be at 3232.25. Any higher through a relevant window would target at least 3235.25. Otherwise, there is less challenge in retracing the gap between last Thursday's close and Friday's open down to 3214.50. Today is this week's most liquid session, so an early trending effort would be credible for extending. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 at 3230.50 would be likely to trigger the 3229.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3227.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

And up, and up, and up?. Already ranging narrowly under Tuesday's 3231.25 pre-open high, a China trade headline triggered a spike up to 3233.00. Its reaction down through the open tested the pre-open range's lower-end down to 3229.00.

But that was only a pullback, not sellers gaining traction. Snapping back up has extended to 3235.00. The week's earlier "new Globex trend extreme" is neutralized.

Also, this morning's 3229.50 bias-up signal triggered cleanly. Its 3235.25 bias-up target is now met to within 1 tick, when 3 ticks would suffice.

Although improved, this is still holiday-level volume. Attracting sponsorship and reinforcements for trending is difficult enough, without also attracting counter-trend sponsorship. Either is difficult to reverse once started. Higher highs to 3237.00 are possible, but there's otherwise no more "unfinished business" above. And the stretched rubber band can start snapping back down under 3230.50.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3235.50 3237.75 ...would target 3241.00 3243.25 Bias-down: under 3228.25 3230.50 ...would target 3223.00 3225.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Holding up. The 3229.25 open's recovery extended almost relentlessly to and through the morning's 3235.25 bias-up target on the way to 3238.00. That probed the 3237.00 room for noise by 1 point, but only overlapped it. Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs are left outstanding at the high. Reversing down to 3233.00 triggered a sell signal, but never attracted reinforcements before 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the noon hour elapsed. Still holding well into positive territory AND above prior intraday highs at that point makes the attraction above likelier to be met before a reliable downleg can form. In fact, the reversal down to 3233.00 has reacted up to now attack 3237.00. Overbought RSIs another point higher would pierce this afternoon's 3237.75 bias-up signal, which it's too late to trigger. Neutralizing the attraction above would allow another downleg to form.

Meanwhile, the UP/DOWN-CRASH setup forming since Dec 11-12 has now formed 10-11 consecutive uptrending closes, interrupted by only 1-2 non-consecutive non-trending sessions. This reflects a vulnerability to snapping back down sharply, or to almost literally exploding higher. Alternatively to either of those resolutions, the pressure or stretch might be relieved prematurely by 1-2 consecutive counter-trend closes.

The list of "unfinished business" above had been growing since last week, and Thursday's session started neutralizing each item -- even before the open. Calculable, structural, behavioral, each no longer an attraction above. Tuesday's 3229.50 bias objective was tested overnight. Sunday night's 3234.25 new Globex trend extreme was tested post-open. Tuesday morning's 3235.50 no-bias objective and Thursday morning's 3235.25 bias-up objective were tested by noon. And the new high close fulfilled last Thursday's confirmed breakout and the new trend high close on a Friday. Even Thursday morning's overbought RSIs at 3238.00 was retested 15 minutes before the close.

About that last 15 minutes... WTH?

An Ascending Triangle had been trying to form, but its pullback was 3 ticks past the 3234.00 room for noise to qualify. No bother. The last half-hour surged through 3238.00, formed a Rising Wedge, then surged to attack 3245.00 through the close. Only in this low volume environment can 11-point organic surges appear from nowhere (or a 6-point collapse like Tuesday's open). And still Thursday afternoon's buyers gained no traction for their efforts, which would have been signaled by 3:00. And still no new "unfinished business" is left outstanding that would otherwise ensure a pullback recover. Still, the pattern is a low-volume rally, so that gets a benefit of the doubt until disproved, with its alternative being a deep pullback. Either path being vulnerable to the UP/DOWN-CRASH setup's extreme aggression, and exacerbated by Friday Factors. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3244.75 3247.00 ...would target 3251.00 3253.25 Bias-down: under 3235.25 3237.50 ...would target 3228.75 3231.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.