Stock Market Trade Signals - 01-06-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... After two consecutive updays, Thursday was likely to offer another upleg at some point, so long as sellers had not retaken control at the open. Sellers did not retake control at the open, despite having drifted downward overnight to test 2259.00 and gap down slightly. Quickly filling the gap back up to Wednesday's 2264.50 close was the morning's only rally. The morning eventually plunged to 2254.00 in reaction to Crude Oil tumbling. The afternoon trended back up, retracing all of the morning's drop. But only all of the drop, and not any higher, let alone closing above the morning's high. Overnight action's new info... Still no higher high as price has drifted flat-to-lower ahead of this morning's Employment Situation report. The 2261.50 low was touched through Europe's opens, bouncing since then back up to 2264.50. If, then... The most bearish factor currently is not what sellers did yesterday, but what buyers did not. An overnight slide and morning plunge each were retraced separately. But neither retracement was reversed above their drop's origin. That leaves this week's recovery attempt vulnerable to this morning's catalyst, the Employment Situation report. It's not being greeted from the position of strength that would have been offered by closing positive. An initially negative knee-jerk reaction down could still be absorbed and recover, but must be absorbed and recovered quickly to set a bullish tone for the morning. The reaction to the day's two later Fed speakers has potential to be bullish, but their anticipation is likely at best to inhibit optimism. Gapping up must still be maintained through the open to expect extending higher into the afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are available before an Employment Situation report.

Another sell-off, another recovery. Opening at this morning's 2266.00 bias-up signal didn't attract any strong-handed sponsorship. At least, no buyers. Immediately plunging barely stopped until piercing the 2258.75 bias-down signal by 2 ticks. Actually, the plunge did stop there. Bouncing nearly 4 points was largely retraced back to the low. Bouncing again recovered back up to 2266.00. Both bias signals held tests, so no offsetting test of the other bias signal is required. It is otherwise a normal no-bias environment. The opening drop is a third sell-off thrown at the market, including Wednesday night's choppy drift and yesterday morning's EIA reaction. It's also the third to recover completely. All of which is potentially bullish, if ever the recoveries' ~2264.50 high were exceeded coming out of a timing window.. Hovering at or under session highs could launch a new upleg into and out of the noon hour. A dip to 2261.00 just retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the bounce. That's not hovering. But quickly recovering back up to the bounce's highs -- quickly -- and then consolidating there would still be credible for launching an afternoon upleg. Inhibition ahead of late-morning and early-afternoon Fed speakers could be responsible for a range-bound morning. They could also be the catalyst to breaking out either way. Late-afternoon Fed speakers will keep participants jumpy, too.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2280.00 2274.25 ...would target  2285.00  2279.50 Bias-down: under  2271.50  2266.00 ...would target 2266.00  2260.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Probing new highs. The bias environment's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement back down to the 2258.25 low did quickly recover back up to the 2266.00 bias-up signal. Hovering there until coming within view of the bias environment exit -- and only until then -- suddenly broke higher to the 2271.25 bias-up target. And then higher. The 2273.00 prior high was tested just before noon. The noon hour touched 2277.00. The 2274.25 bias-up signal did trigger, but it was invalidated by breaking under it at 1:30 down to 2273.00. That hasn't prevented a bounce back up to 2276.25. Back under 2273.50 would start to signal this bounce off of 2273.00 is only obligatory. If today's rally is going to avoid a new trend high close, then this afternoon's bias environment should start the process. Regardless of its resolution, there is no unfinished business above.

All eyes have been Dow 20k, which was attacked Friday to within 1 point. Perhaps it will be probed decisively when actually touched, to compensate for the delay. For our own purposes, the very long awaited retest of the 2273.00 prior high was finally fulfilled Friday. Its 2275.50 which was probed up to 2277.00. That was during the noon hour. The entire afternoon fluctuated choppily around 2275.50, back down to 2273.00. Drifting another couple of points lower into the close avoided closing above 2275.50 which would have put into play the next higher objective (there's room for noise up to 2278.25). The 2273.00 prior high held, too. But the new trend high close on Friday requires at least an eventual higher close before a durable decline would be credible. This weekend's Saturday Review will discuss those factors, and others regarding topping and other resolutions. Then we'll do instant chart analyses of any stocks requested. A reminder and link will be sent overnight. Meanwhile, details and other markets coverage are discussed in the market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2281.00 2275.50 ...would target  2286.75  2281.50 Bias-down: under  2270.75  2265.50 ...would target 2265.50  2260.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.