Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Closing above 2548.00-2555.00 Tuesday had put into play the next higher objective at 2606.00. And Tuesday's session-long rally setup had suggested that Wednesday morning would probe higher. So, Wednesday's 2583.00 gap up extended higher to test 2590.00. That didn't prevent reacting down to headlines similar to Tuesday morning's 34-point drop, but. by a relatively shallower 21 points to test the morning's 2569.25 bias-down signal's support. The drop was recovered to fresh highs through the noon hour up to 2595.50. The afternoon's FOMC Minutes reaction triggered a surge attacking 2597.00, before ranging choppily sideways back down to 2580.00. Unfinished business was left outstanding by oversold RSIs at the morning's 2569.00 low requiring a retest, also similar to oversold RSIs at Tuesday's 2547.25 low. Overnight action's new info... The last dip to 2580.00 by Wednesday's late choppy range was extended through the Globex open. Quickly sliding to 2565.00 neutralized the intraday low's required retest. Its reaction up to 2574.50 was eventually resolved down through Europe's opens to 2560.50. Bouncing back up to 2572.00 is now trying to hold above earlier 2565.00 low. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Is the rally rolling over already? The recent string over several sessions of shallower and briefer pullbacks had suggested that optimism was expanding, and that a capitulative surge was nearing. Two consecutive closes above the 2548.00-2555.00 range had confirmed the rally's next higher objective at 2606.00 is in-play. A little pullback was possible for having come so close to 2606.00 Wednesday. But last night's drop is not a little pullback. It is threatening to open under the entirety of yesterday's range. Retesting the 2548.00-2555.00 range at this stage of the pattern would only start chipping away at its support. Opening back above yesterday's lows to form an Isolation setup, and preferably all the way back up into positive territory, is the optimal bullish path -- if not the only one still available today. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2576.00 would be likely to trigger the 2579.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2566.00 would be likely to exceed the 2571.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Selling not isolated, but possibly temporary. Opening AT yesterday morning's 2569.00 low was already not in the spirit of an Isolation setup. The door remained open to post-open selling, which attacked the 2560.50 overnight low down to 2562.00. Its recovery was overlapping the 2571.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down target. But this is still a bias-down environment. Within 5 minutes price had collapsed 8 points. And 5 minutes later the collapse was recovered. Recovered, and soon extended up to the 2579.00 bias-down signal. But this is still a bias-down environment. The bias-down signal's test as resistance should define the window's upper-end. The bias-down signal's test as resistance includes room for noise up to 2581.00, which is being tested now. Yesterday's 2582.50 and 2586.25 closes could be tested, too. The 2579.00 bias-down signal must still be retraced, unless the bias environment is exited above its 2590.75 bias-up signal to reject the bias-down. And rejecting the bias-down is the only near-term bullish development possible.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2590.25 2590.75 ...would target 2597.50 2598.00 Bias-down: under 2576.75 2577.00 ...would target 2570.75 2571.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Recovery fills gap, and higher. The overnight drop was rejected through the open. The morning's rally didn't reject it, either. Now the afternoon offers one more chance to reinstate the rally's upside momentum. This morning's 2590.75 bias-down signal was tested this morning, but not recovered in time to invalidate the bias-down rally. So its 2579.00 bias-down signal required a retest for having probed above it during a bias-down environment. That's now done. 2579.00 was tested by several points, but held this afternoon's 2577.00 bias-down signal to signal late no-bias. That hasn't prevented probing under it to 2573.50, which is no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Extending under 2573.50 would start signaling that attractions above were being ignored by a bigger downleg. Otherwise, back above 2579.00 would start to signal the recovery is trying again.

The open missed an opportunity to isolate the overnight dip under yesterday's lows. This morning missed the opportunity to reject the open's gap under yesterday's lows. Not exploiting the failed isolation and rejection setups would give one more opening to a recovery, and to resuming the rally.

Thursday morning's bias-down signal triggered after a post-open dip to had probed 9 points under the bias-down target to 2562.00 -- still above the 2560.50 overnight low, and all well below Wednesday's 2582.50 and 2586.25 closes. Also, all well below Wednesday's 2569.00 low, failing to form a bullish Isolation setup. But the morning rallied anyway, testing the window's 2679.00 bias-down signal as resistance. And probing it, filling the gap back to Wednesday's 2582.50-2586.25 closes, and testing the morning's 2590.75 bias-up signal where any higher would have invalidated the bias-down environment. But another dip was required, and it got to 2573.50 before resuming the rally to close back at or above Wednesday's 2596.75 high to finally isolate the overnight/open's failed reversal attempt. The rally's next higher objective at 2606.00 remains intact, somewhat likelier to include its room for noise up to 2626.00. None of which prevents another interim dip, although it should be limited to 2581.00 to be brief, or to 2567.00 to be recoverable. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2598.25 2598.50 ...would target 2605.25 2605.50 Bias-down: under 2587.50 2588.00 ...would target 2580.50 2581.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.