Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday night's attack on 3818.00 was the highest levels since the week-old ranging began to form. Except for last Friday's late probe up to 3824.50, which still requires a higher close. But Thursday morning's peaked at 3816.00, holding up long enough to trigger bias-up targeting 3819.00 that became unfinished business. Flat-to-lower ranging gave way as the afternoon bias window lapsed, falling to 3786.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Gapping up to test 3798.00 ranged sideways briefly, then resumed Thursday afternoon's decline. Sharply lower lows attacked 3765.00 through midnight. Bouncing up to 3783.00 into Europe's opens has since range flat-to-lower. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Bursting at the seams to resolve the week-long range only ever teased at breaking higher. But this overnight break lower hasn't yet resolved the ranging. Its low is just testing the range's lower-end, and other support, with this morning still capable of trending in either direction intraday. Also, regardless of the overnight action, yesterday afternoon's break was sponsored by weak hands. Welcome to the expiration wild card. Selling could find support at 3771.00 (still being tested), 3758.00, and then 3750.00. Whichever, an intraday recovery would be bullish. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Post-open bounce fails. The open managed to hold the 3771.00-3772.50 area as support through the first half-hour. Then 10:00 econ reports enabled 2 steep downlegs to reach 3741.50. 3740.00 is the next significant candidate for support under 3757.00-3758.00 and 3750.00, which failed to hold. Last Wednesday's overlapping consolidation had made its test likely to hold. And now its reaction is testing 3761.00. Although the pattern allows this bounce to form a recovery, Friday Factors suggest the morning's bias will persist through the noon hour. Its bias-down window suggests bounces will fail. A bigger bounce attacking 3777.00 could develop anyway. But back under 3751.25 would target a more thorough test of 3740.00.

FRI P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3775.50 signal would target 3784.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3757.00 signal would target 3744.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3783.00 3775.50 ...would target 3791.75 3784.25 Bias-down: under 3764.25 3757.00 ...would target 3751.25 3744.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

First hour's drop retraced. Attacking the next likely candidate for a low at 3741.00 produced a low that soon retraced the 3771.50 open. Further firming has attacked the 3780.00 post-open high. But price is still solidly in negative territory. And this afternoon window just triggered noN-bias. Despite being positioned to require it, this afternoon's bias-up target is not in-play. noN-bias often behaves like no-bias and only ranges sideways. The 3775.50 bias-up signal is still being tested. Breaking higher at any time would be credible for extending. As would a break under 3767.00.

Thursday's late drop from 3808.00 was weak-handed sponsored, but it extended down nonetheless. First overnight and then through Friday's first hour to 3741.50. The morning bias window retraced the post-open drop, and the afternoon bias window extended it slightly to 3778.00. Another late drop, also weak-handed, collapsed through the expiration close to 3748.00. If that's weak-handed sellers, look out when strong-handed sellers arrive. Actually, if the selling was weak-handed sponsorship, then strong-handed sponsorship should be buyers. From whatever level. And that's still the context, even before Thursday's late break, that any downside is only a temporary correction. The only question is what is being corrected, because that determines the pullback's eventual depth. Apart from the characteristics defining sellers, new trending isn't historically associated with expirations, or with 3-day holiday weekends. Also, unfinished business above remains outstanding -- although it can remain outstanding for as long as a correction needs to run its course. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3759.00 signal would target 3771.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3743.00 signal would target 3733.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3766.50 3759.00 ...would target 3778.50 3771.00 Bias-down: under 3750.50 3743.00 ...would target 3740.50 3733.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE