Stock Market Trade Signals - 01-29-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... The most bullish aspect to Thursday's session was that it didn't extend Wednesday's negative FOMC reaction. Similarly, the most bearish aspect to Thursday's session was that it fully retraced the negative reaction. FOMC news had been greeted at 1901.00-1904.00, and its knee-jerk reaction up was reversed down sharply to 1965.00. Rallying overnight enabled Thursday's opening surge to touch 1902.50. Reacting down to 1966.00 was recovered enough for the afternoon to repeatedly test 1892.00 resistance. Overnight action's new info... Having been inhibited through the afternoon, reaction to AMZN's post-close earnings miss easily held the afternoon's 1877.00 low. Surging before midnight pierced Thursday morning's low up to 1993.25. Its reaction down to 1880.00 was recovered entirely into Europe's opens, hovering since then just under the highs and supported by the 1893.50 bias-up signal. If, then... The 1913.00 potential remains outstanding, and the open is in proximity of fulfilling it quickly. Trending up overnight and well above yesterday's lows makes fresh highs seem like the product of momentum, but actually it's a probe above the range's upper-end. And a lot of momentum has been expended just to get here, so extending into a breakout is difficult. So, fresh highs will be vulnerable to reversing back down, whether upon exiting the open or exiting the morning's bias environment. Outlasting those windows could at least marginalize sellers for the day, and possibly extend up to 1924.00. Rejecting fresh highs -- especially after testing 1913.00 -- could extend back down under yesterday's lows. Downside risk to NOT probing higher high at the open should be moot so long as bias-up is triggered. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 under 1887.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 1893.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 1901.00 would be likely also to exceed the 1898.50 bias-up target at 10:30 to renew the bias-up signal.

Fresh high finds resistance. Opening at the 1893.50 bias-up signal extended higher almost immediately into a congestion around the 1898.50 bias-up target. Surging out of it to 1907.00 was extended up to 1911.50. That's above Wednesday's 1910.00 prior high. And that's where early strength risked reversing down hard. That was especially a risk from 1913.00, but it wasn't touched. And its reaction down was delayed. So, a pullback to 1902.00 is now trying to recover. Perhaps even to resume the rally, next targeting 1913.00. Otherwise, back under 1902.50 would target 1898.50 for a last chance to resume rallying today.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  1920.50 1913.75 ...would target  1926.50  1919.75 Bias-down: under  1911.25  1904.50 ...would target 1905.25  1898.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Productive trend, targets met, RSIs diverging... wait, what? Consolidating through the bias environment's end had formed a reliable accumulative pattern. It broke higher through 1910.00 to fulfill the 1913.00 objective. It extended higher through there to fulfill this afternoon's 1919.75 bias-up target (by 1 tick). The accumulative pattern's corrective phase is biased upward. That reflects optimism, which tends to be sorely missed when new highs are probed. So far, that issue isn't bothering the pattern's breakout. But RSIs are deteriorating quickly. Back under 1915.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Back under each prior would confirm. Exiting Friday afternoon's bias environment by counter-trending can be pretty powerful before the close. But don't get caught short of the bias environment exit is probing fresh highs.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 1939.00 1932.25 ...would target  1944.50  1937.75 Bias-down: under  1928.75 1922.00 ...would target  1923.25  1916.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOW, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The 1913.00 objective was met early, but not rejected, so the rally extended. The next higher objective at 1924.00 was met late, but not rejected, so the rally extended. Closing above 1924.00 would put into play much higher objectives. The breakout leg originated late and wasn't complex, so it requires confirmation as much as any other trigger. The alternative doesn't necessarily resume the decline, at least not immediately. I'll describe the likely possible paths during this weekend's Saturday Review. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.