Stock Market Trade Signals - 02-01-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's drop had overshot the 2275.00 support of "lower prior highs," down to 2263.50. The close had recovered to 2275.00, but not above it, and only due to a weak-handed rally, which left "unfinished business below" requiring a retest at the 2263.50 low's oversold RSIs. That attraction defined Tuesday's session, since no overnight rally developed. Testing 2263.50 neutralized the attraction below, and its reaction tried again to recover 2275.00. That was again the cash session close, produced by a weak-handed rally -- but this time there was no unfinished business below left outstanding.. Overnight action's new info... A shallow post-close surge tested 2278.00, defining the range's upper-end past midnight. Its lower-end briefly touched 2275.00. Firming to 2281.50 ahead of Europe's opens only established a narrower range's upper-end, its lower-end supported by 2278.00. If, then... Near-term trending should be obvious before the open, before becoming most vulnerable to anxiousness ahead of the afternoon's FOMC policy statement. The overnight rally is so far only noise back up to Monday's 2281.00 opening print. Rallying any higher could face the challenge of already testing last Thursday and Friday's 2287.00-2291.00 "higher prior lows," which could be solid resistance. Greeting the news from a shallower morning rally could be the right mix of momentum and restrained optimism that can accelerate back to last week's highs. Opening back under 2275.00 could still reflect patient buyers, while still being vulnerable to revisiting this week's lows -- which would now be likely to break lower on the way to testing 2248.50. . First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2281.00 would be likely to trigger the 2278.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2275.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Bias-up target held, bias-up signal not so much. Slightly higher highs greeted the open at 2282.00. A post-open surge touched 2285.00. That didn't last long. Slipping back under the 2283.50 bias-up target had room for noise, alone, down to the 2278.50 bias-up signal. It was met, and tested through the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period. 2278.50 was still being overlapped at 10:30. Overlapped to within 2 ticks. That's not a decisive rejection of the bias-up, but price has slid anyway. down to 2272.00. Decisively rejecting both bias-up parameters would have put into play offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters. A synthetic bias-down. This morning's setup doesn't require it, and sponsorship for trending will be difficult ahead of this afternoon's FOMC statement. Regardless, back above 2277.00 would signal the post-open drop was absorbed, and momentum is reversing up into the announcement. Otherwise, the 2270.75 bias-down signal can offer support, but with no requirement to hold or to prevent extending down to the 2265.25 bias-down target.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2279.00  2275.00 ...would target  2284.75  2281.00 Bias-down: under 2269.75 2266.00 ...would target  2263.75  2259.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

FOMC news and its reaction on their way. This morning's rejection of the bias-up signal wasn't decisive enough to rely on an offsetting test of the bias-down target. Testing only the 2270.75 bias-down signal down to 2268.25 may have satisfied selling pressure. May have. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 2275.00 bias-up signal was touched but not triggered. As much buying pressure as could be expended without reversing the trend up was expended. Not a position of strength.

Greeting the 2:00 FOMC news from under 2270.75 would be likely to extend down. Perhaps this morning's 2265.25 bias-down target is met, after all -- and broken on the way to testing 2248.50.

A bullish reaction would be likelier if the news were greeted from above 2277.00-2278.50. Regardless, note that earnings and tomorrow's BOE statement are still going to inhibit sponsorship.

Wednesday's close was the third consecutive to end at 2275.00. Following Monday's opening plunge, that might seem like stability. No, it is indecision. The longer that strong-handed buyers don't sponsor a recovery, the likelier that another downleg to lower lows will be required. Unless Thursday's open were to maintain a gap up, a test of 2248.50 has become likelier. FOMC is now history. Earnings announcements have tapered off. BOE announces its policy statement Thursday morning, and then headline risk can pause. That is, until Thursday afternoon, when markets may become paralyzed by anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. Actually, volatility preceding FOMC wasn't very restrained. Neither was volatility following it. Two attempts to break lower each failed -- but, from above the morning's low, which makes the pattern distributive and not accumulative. So, Thursday afternoon volatility can't be ruled out. Unfortunately, I will be unavailable after noon to annotate it in the chaRTroom. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2282.75 2278.75 ...would target  2288.00  2284.25 Bias-down: under  2274.50  2270.75 ...would target  2268.00  2264.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.