mid-day UPDATE 
Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Bouncing into the Globex open ranged flat-to-higher back to within 2 points of yesterday's high at 4161. Its pullback to 4145 support was reversed to fresh highs at 4176. And Thu's opening dip to 4153 was reversed to 4197.
New price points : Ranging through the noon hour back to 4181 narrowly avoided triggering bias-up, but has extended higher anyway to 4208.
Catalysts : ECB/BOE, Earnings (AMZN, GOOG post-close), Fri's NFP-PMI-ISM.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : noN-BIAS, TESTING BIAS-UP... Breakout.
Their influences : Still overlapping the bias-up signal at 1:20 AND 1:30 avoided triggering it either way, so the P.M. bias parameters have no predictive input. Meanwhile, Wed afternoon's surge qualified as a breakout from a multi-session range, now awaiting confirmation -- or not -- by a second consecutive higher close today.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Not still backing-and-filling or isolating a blip-up at the open was instead likely to extend the rally substantially. This morning's rally qualifies, and remains likely to persist because now probing fresh highs is rejecting a Gap-and-pause setup that had formed.
Alternative : Although too late to form the Gap-and-pause setup's afternoon hovering, retracing the earlier range down to 4192 would be likely if the afternoon rally becomes restricted by anxiousness ahead of post-close earnings and Fri morning econs.
Levels : UP: 4168, 4184, 4199... DOWN: 4102, 4080, 4060.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Today's price points : Relentless firming from the 4136 overnight low extended through Wed's high to 4176 where the open reacted back down to 4153. Surging higher to 4197 was later extended to 4208, where the P.M. bias window collapsed back down into the overnight range to 4157. Surging to the 4187 and 4107 5th stage objectives of a 5-Stage pattern were retraced entirely back down to 4154.
Catalysts : Earnings, NFP-PMI-ISM.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Breakout confirmation.
Their influences : Wed's close above a multi-session range was a breakout that Thu's second consecutive higher close has now confirmed will produce at least an eventual third higher close.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : So, is it pullback time? Thu afternoon avoided forming a Gap-and-pause setup that would have specifically pointed down Fri, but its absence doesn't prevent reversing down Fri anyway. And the rally's longstanding likely objective for a 4200 handle was achieved at Thu's highs. Also, confirming Wed's breakout now requires at least an eventual third higher close, which allows the rally to rest on its laurels for a temporary correction. Even in the event of an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction to the pre-open Employment Situation report, we'll monitor the open for a sell signal.
Alternative : Not yet gapping down Fri would be likely to exhibit some post-open strength -- to whatever degree, whether or not retesting Thu's highs -- but not already reversing down through the open would again be vulnerable like Thu to trending up automatically through the morning.
Levels : UP: 4212, 4251, 4275... DOWN: 4163, 4136, 4108.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

FRI A.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4202, targeting 4218.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4184, targeting 4170.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.