Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) "Surprise" coronavirus headlines after Wednesday's close had triggered an overnight collapse from 3382.50 to 3348.50. A bounce to 3366.00 ranged widely between 3359.00-3372.00 through Thursday's first half-hour. Resolving up attacked 3980.00 through the bias environment exit, filling the gap back to Wednesday's close. What collapse. The afternoon's no-bias signal didn't prevent probing higher anyway, to new highs attacking 3385.00. But the no-bias trending required being retraced, which was overshot down to 3371.00. The close bounced back up to 3377.00.. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Wednesday night was apparently long forgotten, as Globex got right back into its usual habit of probing new highs. A dip back down to the 3372.50 bias-down signal was needed first to stretch the rubber band. But it had soon snapped back up to the 3381.50 bias-up signal, then surged to a new high at 3388.50. Only a singular surge comprises the new high's probe portion that is above yesterday's high, so it is not a new Globex trend extreme. And its test of the 3387.50 bias-up target has since retraced to the surge's origin, back under yesterday's high, and briefly lower. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Thursday's second consecutive close above 3361.00-3362.00 confirms the 3391.00 objective is in-play, albeit with no particular timing. Quickly recovering Wednesday night's detour to attack 3391.00 so closely could result in probing above it more substantially -- unless the objective is both met and then rejected quickly. Last night's rally is only closer to within proximity of 3391.00, making its test only likelier. Having probed above yesterday's high, only opening back under the 3372.00 earlier Globex low (forming a bearish Globex-flip setup) could already signal a decline underway this morning. A new high close on a Friday entrenches the rally, especially being a 3-day weekend AND expiration, neither being likely to accompany a trend extreme. So, today's resolution could be very predictive of the ongoing rally. Its next higher objective would be 3451.00, but yesterday's relatively brief and shallow correction -- 34 quickly recovered points that only probed the prior session's low -- may have already expended its refueling... Warning: Expiration could exacerbate any trending today. Also, Friday afternoon liquidity tends to evaporate ahead of a 3-day weekend. Expiration may keep up turnover, but one-sided volume is not liquidity. An illiquid environment would likely exacerbate coronavirus and repo headline reactions. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3384.25 would be likely to trigger the 3381.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 3377.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 3377.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3372.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3370.50 would be likely to trigger bias-don.

Otherwise, a potentially restrained expiration session ahead. I almost said, an "uneventful" expiration session ahead, instead of restrained. An event, or some external catalyst like a headline, may be the only way today's session breaks beyond yesterday's range. The open fluctuated around unchanged until drifting back down to yesterday's lows. Briefly probing under this morning's 3372.50 bias-down signal to 3370.25 was quickly rejected back above its bounce limit. Late no-bias has triggered, putting into play an offsetting test of the 3381.50 bias-up signal. A buy signal at 3377.00 is being tested. Assuming it triggers, a range bound morning isn't required to bounce steadily or aggressively to its objective. Testing that 3381.50 objective when the bias environment is lapsing could extend higher to prior highs at 3384.50 or 3388.50, or even extend up to 3391.00. None of which requires a test today, while nothing prevents dipping back down instead.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3383.00 3382.50 ...would target 3388.50 3388.00 Bias-down: under 3383.50 3373.25 ...would target 3366.00 3365.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Expiration pushing down? Expiration day is like one big position-squaring window. Friday afternoon timing windows including the position-squaring window already tend to collapse onto each other. Friday afternoon volume evaporates, more so ahead of 3-day weekend. But expiration expands volume -- only volume, not liquidity which is the ease of getting off a trade in either direction.

So, expiration trending can be difficult to launch. And difficult to stop once launched.

A range bound morning was likely as the opening 15 minutes barely roamed from an essentially flat open. Holding the bias-down signal's test down to 3370.75 was rewarded by attacking the 3381.50 bias-up signal to within 3 ticks. This afternoon's 3373.25 bias-down signal could have held, too. But it was broken on the way to 3368.25 to trigger bias-down. Its 3365.75 bias-down target is in-play. And as difficult as it is to launch trending on expiration day, launched trending is difficult to stop. Other than its target, nothing about the signal dictates how aggressive or substantial this afternoon should decline. And in case the decline stops, I'll leave a buy signal outstanding above 3374.00.

Friday's expiration session developed exclusively within Thursday's range. An overnight probe of new highs up to 3388.50 had been retraced to open almost unchanged at 3378.00. The morning ranged between 3370.00-3381.00, which the afternoon probed down to 3365.25. It might have extended lower but for a favorable headline (proposed tax break for buying stocks). The balance of the session rallied up to 3382.00, a new high close but still under Thursday's prior intraday highs. Both the morning and afternoon bias objectives were met, and neither the overnight high nor Friday high close qualified to require a retest. There is no Saturday Review due to the holiday, so Market Wrap included a bigger picture review. It also includes a discussion of expiration influences. The chaRTroom will be open with Sunday night's Globex session at 6:00pm ET through its 1:00pm early close on Monday, and then re-open with Globex Monday evening. Enjoy the weekend! See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND. CHARTROOM RE-OPENS SUNDAY 6 PM ET.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3382.25 3381.75 ...would target 3389.00 3388.50 Bias-down: under 3370.25 3370.00 ...would target 3364.25 3364.00 Signal status: INVALIDATED NO-BIAS, BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.