Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Relentless overnight trending from Tuesday's 3001.00 close up to 3074.00 had reacted down to 3043.50 before greeting Wednesday's open back up at 3059.00. The open's blip-up to 3070.00 resolved down through the opening 15 minutes of volatility, rejecting the relentless overnight trending. Buyers would be marginalized for the balance of the morning, reacting down to 3031.00, and finally resolving up right at noon. The rally's resumption extended up sharply to a last-minute high at 3129.50 for another top one-day gain -- albeit still more than 7 points short of Tuesday morning's Fed spike high. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Futures had slipped from Wednesday's 3127.00 cash session close to 3115.00, and continued falling to 3085.00 by midnight. An 18-point bounce was retraced entirely before Europe's opens, which only bought fresh sellers into the equation. The decline has now extended back down to 3046.00, testing the 3050.00 origin of yesterday's upleg that had begun at noon. And under all of yesterday afternoon's prior lows. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday morning's recovery attempt wasn't required to resume, not even after the overnight rally. So, extending higher anyway gave further upside a benefit of the doubt -- until disproved. It's being disproved. Gapping down under Wednesday afternoon's 3080.00 low would/will reject Wednesday's closing uptrend. It would also form the basis for a "session-long decline" setup, unless the gap down also holds a relevant support. That support is yesterday morning's "lower prior highs" at 3061.00-3066.00, which is now being probed. Holding support through the open would likely bounce back up to 3082.00-3084.00, and possibly remain range bound ahead of tomorrow morning's Employment Situation report. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3082.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3091.00 bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

No shortage of opinion ahead of tomorrow's Payrolls. Relentless overnight trending had extended to test 3031.00-3033.00 support before bouncing to the 3047.00 open. Bouncing further post-open extended up to 3062.50. But the opening 15 minutes of volatility was still overlapping the opening range, so the relentless overnight ranging was not rejected. Recovering efforts shouldn't be productive this morning. And overnight lows should eventually be probed. But so far, sellers only produced a fresh post-open low attacking 3035.00. And that was recovered to fresh post-open highs at 3067.50. Already having failed through the open to reject the relentless overnight trending suggests that fresh post-open lows are yet to come. The session-long decline setup is also in-play. Not for having maintained its gap down under yesterday afternoon's low, but for the open holding under yesterday morning's highs. It suggests that all but one intraday timing window will probe under its prior timing window's low.

This exception already seems to be this morning's bias environment. Which would also mean that all of today's remaining timing windows will probe lower and lower lows.

Ignoring one of the bearish setups would mean ignoring both. The alternative wouldn't necessarily rally, which is especially difficult if anxiousness starts paralyzing price action ahead of tomorrow morning's Employment Situation report. But exiting the bias window above yesterday morning's 3071.00 highs could easily extend up to 3082.00-3084.00 or 3085.00-3089.00 as noise.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3063.00 3061.00 ...would target 3072.75 3070.75 Bias-down: under 3049.00 3047.00 ...would target 3037.75 3035.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Session-long decline is intact. Gapping down under yesterday afternoon's 3080.00 low would reject yesterday's closing rally. That predictive test was supplanted by another, already testing yesterday's morning's 3061.00 "lower prior highs." Anyway, the latter failed to recover, too. At least when it mattered, during the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Session-long declines require all but one intraday timing window to probe its prior timing window's low. That exception isn't usually the morning's bias-environment. But this morning's bias-environment didn't probe a prior low. So, all of today's remaining timing windows should probe their prior timing window lows. The bias environment's low was 3035.25. And it was probed during the noon hour, despite an interim rally up to 3082.25. Coincidentally, that's 3080.00's counterpart. And its reaction far exceeded the session-long decline's minimum required 3035.25. The noon hour's low was 3017.50. Now this afternoon's bias environment was entered even lower at 3011.50. Already this window has fulfilled its minimum requirement. The last 60-90 minutes must probe this window's low, which could be 3011.50 or could be lower. Currently its reaction is attacking 3038.00. NOT probing fresh lows after this afternoon's bias environment lapses would have no specific upside limit. But often Thursday afternoon price action is inhibited from trending ahead of the next morning's Employment Situation Report -- having nothing to do with its result, only the psychological timing.

Thursday's open was greeted by relentless overnight trending, from 3127.00 and 3114.50 down to 3031.00. Post-open trended up from 3047.00 to 3082.00, but not in time to reject the relentless overnight trending. And not in time to reject the session-long decline setup that had also formed by the gap down rejecting Wednesday's closing rally. So the overnight decline resumed and trended down to 2996.50 until the last half-hour's bounce up to 3029.00. Anxiousness ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report usually only ranges sideways. But the session-long decline setup still required probing fresh lows. Having done so suggests the setup's usual influence remains intact, to probe under Thursday's lows at some point on Friday. Meanwhile, Thursday afternoon's sellers gained traction for their efforts by exiting the bias environment (2:30) under the noon hour low and trending down through the proxy window (3:10-3:20). More than just probe fresh lows, fulfilling this setup would trend down through the morning. Rallying anyway Friday would be unlikely without gapping up above Thursday morning's high, or at least recovering it quickly. Almost any reversal up would next target 3188.00-3195.00 See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3035.00 3033.00 ...would target 3045.00 3043.00 Bias-down: under 3010.00 3008.00 ...would target 2999.50 2997.50 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.