Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Already firming up to 1995.50 ahead of Friday's payrolls, its reaction spiked up to 2002.25. Reacting down sharply into and out of the open fell to 1984.00. Recovering to fresh highs at 2007.50 reacted down sharply again, back down to 1991.00. A late bounce enabled closing positive at 1996.00-1997.50. Overnight action's new info... Immediately dipping at Sunday's open was able to hold 1990.00. Relatively narrow ranging back up to 1994.50 was momentarily pierced up to 1996.00 after Europe's opens. But that only stretched the rubber band,m which snapped back down to 1988.50 and 1985.25. Now a bounce is testing 1988.50 from below. If, then... Thursday night's firming had already met the next higher objective at 1993.00. Its room for noise at 1997.25 and 2001.00 was met and held intraday Friday. Closing much higher today could invalidate the rally as being only a temporary correction before resuming the decline. Meanwhile, Friday's new high close all but ensures an immediate pullback would recover into a new upleg. So, a successful top would close only slightly higher today -- regardless of the intraday range and pattern. Recovering from a slightly lower open would be that path's likely first couple of steps. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1988.00 would be likely to hold the 1986.00 bias-down signal through 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 1993.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 1992.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Topping pattern still being traced. In Saturday's discussion of the potential topping pattern, I noted that the real fireworks might not appear until Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. Monday's action could be choppy and frustrating, recovering from a shallow gap down -- whether recovering a little or a lot -- to close only slightly positive. Even more frustratingly, recovering from this morning's shallow gap down has avoided triggering a bias. The 1986.00 bias-down target was touched at the open, and the 1992.50 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period. It was still being overlapped at 10:30 to trigger noN-bias.

A retest of the bias-down target is not in-play. Offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters are not in-play. The bias levels remain influential if tested, but not with any specific consequence.

Price action is still tracking the broader template, now having recovered the shallow gap down back up into slightly positive territory at 1998.00. But it's early. The recovery might fail; extending to fresh highs might not be rejected. Holding 1995.00 would keep alive the upside probing.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2007.00 2004.75 ...would target  2012.75  2010.25 Bias-down: under  1999.75  1997.50 ...would target 1993.50 1991.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Topping pattern's restraints are holding. A shallow gap down that recovers back into positive territory (however high or shallow) that closes slightly positive. That's the basic form for today's session that would maintain the potential for topping. Gapping down to test this morning's 1986.00 bias-down target avoided triggering the 1992.50 bias-down signal. That has recovered into positive territory to within 1 tick of the afternoon's 2004.75 bias-up signal. And now that has reacted down to unchanged at 2005.00-2007.50 (Friday's cash session and futures closes).

Closing around here would qualify as a slightly higher close, and maintain the potential topping pattern. That's more than 2 hours away, so another bounce wouldn't be surprising. Or a deeper dip that barely recovers.

Also possible is a close under 1984.50 pre-open low. While not a positive close, it would form a bearish Pivot Reversal bar -- that could serve by proxy, so long as the lower close weren't so much lower as to borrow future selling pressure.

It was like watching a basketball ride the rim in circles before momentum had finally allowed gravity to suck the ball through the hoop. The afternoon's drop from 2004.50 down to 1988.25 was recovered back up to 2000.25. Although post-close action extended up to 2002.00, the cash session's last last-minute leg was a surge from 1995.50.  So, closing slightly positive Monday was fulfilled. That wasn't the session's likeliest scenario. It was the likeliest scenario to maintain a topping pattern. A topping pattern that should start trending back down already Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. The alternative is to resume the rally by Tuesday afternoon or Wednesday morning. There is no bullish or bearish reason to hover here for any longer. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2005.00 2002.50 ...would target  2011.25  2009.00 Bias-down: under  1993.25 1991.00 ...would target 1987.50  1985.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.