Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday night's reaction to Gary Cohn's resignation had gapped down 24 points from the 2724.00 cash session close to 2700.00, then extended down to 2681.00. Wednesday's open was greeted back at 2700.00, which then recovered to attack 2724.00 to within 1 tick. The open's gap down was retested into the noon hour, and holding its test was rewarded by recovering to within 1 tick of Tuesday afternoon's 2730.50 high -- which was done by invalidating the afternoon's clean bias-down signal at 1:30. Last-minute weakness finished a third consecutive session at or near the 2725.25-2727.75 corrective bounce limit. Overnight action's new info... Wednesday's last-minute weakness drifted only a little lower to 2720.00 before bouncing back to 2727.75. Choppy ranging persisted into and out of Europe's opens, forming a chart that resembles a shark's menacing dorsal fin protruding above the water. [Cue the Jaws theme music.] The most recent reversal back into the range has extended through its upper-end, now probing Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon's highs up to 2733.50. If, then... Retesting Tuesday afternoon's highs was a likely reward for having absorbed Wednesday's second dip back to the open. The recovery wasn't rejected through the close, and another test of the corrective bounce limit was held. So, the bearish template is -- again -- either to reject probes of fresh highs before reversing down sharply, or else to already be collapsing through the open. The latter may seem unlikely now while fresh highs are being probed, but the ECB announcement and Draghi's press conference are just minutes away. Regardless, extending higher or trending down substantially will be difficult on the day before Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report. Nevertheless, extending fresh highs Thursday morning would start making fresh highs at 2753.00 or 2765.00 likelier next. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2733.25 would be likely to trigger the 2731.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2727.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

We're staying with Mar ES for an extra day before rolling coverage forward to Jun, which is my practice when a new extreme for a move is forming. For reference, Jun trades at a 5-point premium to Mar... The biggest question of the morning is the biggest because it addresses the bigger picture. It is the question of whether the bearish distributive template remains influential. Indeed, failed probes of fresh highs have defined the past 3-4 hours. Surging to 2733.50 before ECB, to 2736.50 before the open and retesting it afterward -- each time reacting back down into the range -- all qualify as distribution.

The last reaction down became the deepest, fully testing the lower-end of 2725.25-2727.75. Along the way down, the bias-up signal's test at 10:15 invoked the grace period, which barely avoided triggering at 10:30.

Having held tests of both bias-up parameters, offsetting tests of both bias-down parameters is officially in-play. That's not required, since the signal triggered late, and barely. But now having printed a fresh post-open low after 10:30, down is much more reliable than up. Also, there's no "unfinished business above." So, until bounces stop failing and supports stop breaking, in-line with the bearish distributive template, the likely resolution is down. Resolving dramatically in either direction is still going to be difficult ahead of tomorrow morning's Employment Situation report.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2733.75 2733.25 ...would target  2738.75  2738.50 Bias-down: under  2724.25  2724.00 ...would target  2718.50  2718.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bearish template remains intact, but window has narrowed. All of this morning's bounces reacted down to relevant levels before attempting another bounce. The ongoing failed probes of higher highs has continued tracking the bearish distribution template. The last failure finally produced a fresh post-open low during the noon hour. That should be the template's final confirmation, although a more liquid timing window is always preferable. Anyway, now the question is when the pattern resolves down. And the answer is anytime. Sort of. The template is still likeliest to resolve down during the same afternoon as the morning distribution. But that's more difficult today. Tomorrow's Employment Situation report often paralyzes the market with anxiousness. Also, this afternoon's 2724.00 bias-down signal is supportive for another hour until the bias environment starts lapsing. Probing under it would be no-bias trending that requires at least retracing.

Thursday's bias environment exit disagrees that the bearish distribution template remains intact. Reversing multiple pre-open and intraday bounces back to relevant levels was even confirmed by the noon hour's fresh post-open lows. But the afternoon bias environment exit was influenced by a giant sucking sound to the north, reacting to news of Nafta partners being exempted from the tariffs. The 45-minute rally from 2727.75 probed fresh highs up to 2740.50. Then it was right back down 2727.75. Bearish distribution template remains intact. Monday night's 2734.50 prior high was being tested at 3 minutes before the cash session close. That was on the way to the cash session closing at 2739.00. Recovering during the press conference -- let alone just ahead of the next morning's Employment Situation report -- isn't much more meaningful than noise. Regardless, not already trending down at Friday's open will likely extend up to 2753.00 or 2765.00.

Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2741.00 2746.00 ...would target  2749.25  2754.25 Bias-down: under  2724.50  2729.50 ...would target  2718.00  2723.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.