Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's limit up at 2498.00 was premature for launching a rally out of Monday's range, and never threatened Monday's 2548.50 high. Reacting down through Tuesday's open reached 2352.00 where another rally launched. Monday's high was at least attacked to within 6 points, but only attacked, despite being allowed to extend without fear of limit or halt. The balance of the session ranged choppily between 2433.00-2534.00 -- in other words, still ranging around the overnight limit up. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Not already resuming Tuesday morning's rally into yesterday's final hour had opened the door to retracing all of the morning's recovery. Last-minute volatility around 2519.50 resolved down into the Globex open and extended lower through Asia's opens to 2398.00. Bouncing up to 2448.00 was retraced by midnight, and then only a little lower before triggering the 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down at 2393.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) How far out on the precipice had yesterday's buyers crawled? Fresh highs into and/or out of today's open would have been credible for extending higher, potentially launching a multi-session rally. That buying pressure will be sorely missed just when it is needed most, to absorb the overnight reaction down before it can damage the chart any further. Instead, resuming the decline today is vulnerable to beginning another multi-session series of lower intraday lows and lower closes. Another 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} halt would be triggered post-open at 2343.00, and the first 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} halt is at 2191.00. Launching an interim rally today would have delayed a 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6}, which might not happen, although I still consider it to be mass psychology's "other shoe to drop" that must precede the next significant rally. I could be swayed from that assumption upon forming a compelling organic bottom, which yesterday's attempt almost produced. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2433.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2443.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

ANOTHER opening rally? Woof. Hope springs eternal again. Note to self: When this range is revisited from below, its resistance will be significant, and its recovery will be hard-fought. Gapping open at 2353.00 dipped to the 2343.00 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit, narrowly escaping being halted. Spiking back up within 3-4 minutes essentially held the 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement at 2415.00. Its resistance pushed back to 2367.00 where another rally tested the 61.8 of the 61.8 gap-to-gap up to 2442.00. Trending down since then has been relatively shallow back to 2399.00. If hope is still springing (like eternal hope should, I suppose), then fresh highs above 2343.00 would target the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap at 2455.00. Otherwise, rejecting the opening bounce would target the 2353.00 open, and then probably a downleg to fresh lows and lower.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2416.00 2405.00 ...would target 2436.25 2425.25 Bias-down: under 2367.50 2357.50 ...would target 2343.00 2333.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Finally trading under a halt level. The open narrowly avoided triggering a 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} halt at 2343.00. But as we've been discussing, the focus should be more on the potential for at least attacking a 13{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} halt. Anyway, this morning's bounce up to 2442.00 was retraced entirely to trigger the 7{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} halt. The differences from the 3 prior halts is glaring. This is the latest post-open halt, and subsequent price action has only traded lower. Perhaps Pavlov's dogs have finally been conditioned. Trending down has tested 2283.00. Resolving down as is now being attempted would next target 2276.50, and then 2192.00-2221.00. Another "hope springs eternal" rally is possible, but not likely, and certainly not required. Nothing in this environment can be dismissed as impossible. My premise continues to be that the bounce mentality needs to be wrung out of the market's neck before a bottom can form. And even then... Consecutive multi-session lower intraday lows and lower closes won't identify the low, but they'll allow a low to begin forming. Today's pattern continues to be the best opportunity yet for that. Traders should keep position sizes within one's normal amount, and stops well within one's own risk tolerance and comfort level.

Welcome to our daily installment of, "Is it, or Isn't It?" Fresh trend lows down to 2262.00, overnight limit down and intraday halt, entire session spent in negative territory, intraday trending below the halt's level, midday trending under the morning's 2343.00 low, and... Well, no new low close. That last condition for a new low close isn't the most critical. And it was only avoided by surging 123 points in reaction to news (Senate passes relief bill). So, Wednesday otherwise formed the most bearish intraday pattern since the Feb 20-27 stretch. No single session since then has produced so many bearish conditions. But is it bearish enough to be bullish from a contrarian perspective, or does that still require multiple consecutive bearish sessions? Another 1-2 downtrending sessions and fresh low closes is preferable to wash-out optimists. That said, no "unfinished business" is left outstanding below. Wednesday's gap down was within the prior range, which excuses its 2353.00 open from requiring a retest. Closing Thursday above the morning's 2443.00 high could be credible for launching a corrective rally. Meanwhile, resuming the decline would still target sub-2000 levels, focusing in on 2167.00. Unless preceded by a brief yet sizable bounce Thursday, extending down that low could avoid a 1987-style crash. All of which assumes a near-term low is approaching. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2431.00 2420.00 ...would target 2447.50 2437.50 Bias-down: under 2383.75 2373.75 ...would target 2370.50 2360.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.