Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Rallying sharply Monday night had formed a "new Globex trend extreme" at 2853.00. It also allowed probing fresh highs without relying on intraday sponsorship, which had failed to maintain Monday morning's highs. Gapping up to 2849.75 ranged choppily sideways until the bias environment came within view of lapsing, then surged 15 points to attack 2859.00 as noon began. Intraday sponsorship did it again, retracing the rally down to 2853.00, then collapsing to 2841.50 on a China trade headline. A bounce to 2852.00 was reversed to fresh session lows through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window to signal a more substantial drop forming. Right into the position-squaring window at 2829.00, bouncing back up to 2840.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... Volatility is already alive, including a fresh low, and a wide reversal around unchanged. Tuesday's late bounce had begun retracing back down immediately at the Globex open. The late low was retested by 1 point to 2828.00, essentially this morning's bias-down signal. A bounce retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} up to 2835.50 by midnight, where a consolidation resolved up and extended the bounce through Europe's opens to 2842.50. That's essentially this morning's bias-up signal, and a probe into positive territory, and their resistance has reacted down to 2834.00, and looking at least a little lower. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) No "unfinished business" above, and two consecutive sessions of distribution ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events, doesn't prevent rallying. Whether ahead of the event in belief that yesterday's drop was defensive enough, or in reaction to the event because another bullet is dodged. Regardless, the Fed -- and all Central Banks -- are in a controversial phase of trying to let rhetoric do their work, all creating a very opportunistic trading environment. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2830.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2828.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2838.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2842.25 bias-up signal.

Bias-down signal holds multiple tests. And still being tested. My pre-open update noted that the 2828.50 bias-down signal was unlikely to trigger ahead of FOMC. Sponsorship is difficult to generate ahead of an event. It wasn't even near being tested as the pre-open pullback had tested and retested 2834.00. But a post-open collapse from the 2836.50 open pierced 2828.50. Its test held, reacting up to 2832.00. As did the next deeper test. One more test after invoking the grace period touched the room for noise down to 2825.25, and recovered enough to avoid triggering bias-down. An offsetting test of the 2842.25 bias-up signal is in-play, but 2828.50 was tested again.

Perhaps the choppiness and delay is the effect of Brexit headlines crossing during the open. But the opportunity for strong hands to have signaled a bearish sentiment has passed, at least until backing-and-filling to resistance, at least with any confidence.

At least a bounce up to 2837.50 remains likely initially, so long as 2828.50 continues holding as support. But only so long, as not yet rallying off of 2828.50's tests when the bias environment starts lapsing would suggest that patient buyers are letting sellers have more room.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2824.00 2829.25 ...would target 2828.25 2835.50 Bias-down: under 2815.75 2821.00 ...would target 2807.75 2813.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Weak-handed or not, sellers are being rewarded. Testing, retesting, and re-retesting this morning's 2828.50 bias-down signal ultimately held in time to trigger late no-bias. An offsetting test of its 2842.25 bias-up signal was put into play. But it was hardly attacked, but for a structural fresh high at 2833.00. And then fresh lows were probed down to 2821.00. A recovery seemed to be forming around 2825.00 when a Trump China trade comment triggered a spike down to fresh lows at 2817.25. Now a bounce is retesting 2825.00.

Weak-handed sponsors are likely producing the noon hour's fresh lows. As likely as they were producing this morning's lows. Which is to say, so what. They've been pretty productive.

Usually trending beyond a prior extreme (yesterday's lows) would be difficult ahead of FOMC. Of course, usually price action reacts to political uncertainty like this morning's Brexit headlines.

The latter may have ended for the day, considering what time it is. And the former is about to begin, with the Policy Statement at 2:00 and the Fed Chair Q&A at 2:30. Perhaps those headlines will find price sufficiently discounted for a favorable reaction up -- or at least, a recovery from a knee-jerk reaction down.

Bearish. Two days of hammering back at intraday rallies were joined Wednesday by a third. It was the most dramatic of the series, completely retracing a 24-point rally within 4 hours. The rally was helped by having probed Tuesday's 2829.00 low uncharacteristically ahead of FOMC -- thanks to a barrage of Brexit headlines, topped off by a Trump China trade comment that spiked to fresh lows attacking 2817.00. So much weak-handed discounting ahead of FOMC made it almost impossible not to react favorably. The policy statement was greeted at 2825.25 and surged to 2842.50, then extended up to test 2849.00. All of which was "no-bias trending" for originating during a no-bias environment, requiring a retracement of the 2828.75 bias-up signal. It was met before the position-squaring window opened, and retested into the close. No-bias trending can also retrace the 1:20 print, which was essentially 2823.25, and it was touched after the futures close. There is no "unfinished business," above or below. But there is a three-day pattern of retracing ever-larger intraday rallies. And the series' third was both the biggest retracement AND the lowest. The market may be playing defense into the weekend if Thursday morning hasn't recovered Wednesday's high. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2830.25 2835.50 ...would target 2836.75 2842.00 Bias-down: under 2818.25 2823.50 ...would target 2810.75 2816.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.