Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's expiration session mostly ranged, albeit ranging widely, each leg overlapping Thursday's close. Ultimately the session ended at new lows, without ever even threatening a limit or a halt. Extending down 68 points through Thursday's close into Globex's first hour had reacted up 169 points to the 2499.00 overnight high. That reversed down 138 points into Friday's expiration open, which reacted up 82 points to the morning's 2442.50 high. Trending down into the the weekend fell 182 points and probed Wednesday's prior low down to 2260.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's open was already being greeted by momentum into Friday's close, and that pressure was compounded by last-minute disagreement in moving the assistance bill. Globex gapped down to 2220.00 and immediately slid to 5{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} limit down at 2174.00. Perhaps anticipating a successful re-vote this morning, choppy price action has come off the limit repeatedly, while bouncing to 2223.00, 2230.00, and now 2239.50. The gap-to-gap  38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement is getting closer at 2244.75, while the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement is at 2260.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Durable turning points are not usually accompanied by expirations, and now even a temporary bounce is probably prevented for having probed fresh lows overnight. The only bullish scenario for a durable low would begin by spending the entire morning in positive territory. The Isolation setup isn't even currently indicated, but I mention it because of gradually retracing last night's gap down. But no "unfinished business" would be left outstanding because the immediate limit down prevented the overnight low from forming a new Globex trend extreme that would otherwise require intraday retest. Meanwhile, the bearish WedEX setup is making the morning likely to trend down, regardless of gapping up or down. There is not agreement on the timing of a Senate re-vote. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2233.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2243.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal.

Fed throws a wrench into the bearish setups. During the Market Tour we discussed the bullish Isolation setup. Only because choppy overnight price action was eking higher despite the open's limit down. I had assumed that bouncing was just hope that the Senate would still pass its bill today. But the overnight firming was actually front-running a Fed announcement that triggered a 172-point surge from 2214.00-2286.00. The surge's reaction down greeted the 2279.50 open back under Friday's lows, invalidating the Isolation setup. Extending down to 2218.00 essentially retraced all of the headline reaction.

The bearish WedEX and bearish PM Traction setups can now influence the morning. Bounces should fail, and supports should break lower. Of course, the bearish influence has to fight against the bullish Fed influence, and they say never to fight city hall. Even if the setups prove to have influenced this morning, they might be much less productive than without the Fed's interference.

As an example already, a probe under both bias-down parameters was recovered only enough to trigger noN-bias, for still overlapping the bias-down signal at both 10:15 and 10:30. Recovering the 2269.25 bias-down signal through either of those windows would have put into play offsetting tests of both 2325.25 and 2348.25 bias-up parameters. Instead, breaking lower would still be credible. The two bearish setups become moot as the bias environment begins lapsing at 11:30. Probing fresh post-open lows by then would be more vulnerable to extending down anyway. I'll want to see if the timing of a Senate re-vote, if one is even scheduled by then.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2227.75 2217.75 ...would target 2243.00 2233.00 Bias-down: under 2190.25 2181.00 ...would target 2175.25 2166.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Gaps filled back to Friday's close. Fresh post-open lows before the noon hour got to 2179.50, down 108 points from the open's high. Oversold RSIs require eventually retesting 2179.50, but the timing window shift was exploited by a recovery. Rallying into and through the noon hour recovered the 2179.50 open to attack 2291.00. Slightly more than the 108 point post-open dip. Being a triple-digit move doesn't prevent being reversed.

The rally accompanied Senate floor speeches suggest -- couched in typically harsh rhetoric -- that an agreement will be reached today. This doesn't mean a vote will be held during market hours. But it does suggest that much of the news will have been discounted, potentially leaving only a brief knee-jerk reaction up before once again reversing back down.

I could turn bullish near-term if today were to close in positive territory. Especially if first positive territory were recovered before the afternoon bias environment were to begin lapsing. Meanwhile, positive territory, or unchanged, is acting as resistance. Last night's decline will be difficult to resume while the Senate vote procedures are advancing, but it does seem that the anticipation has been discounted.

I almost want to call it the "Fed Pattern," but that would probably mark the last time it appears. Anyway, it appeared again before Monday's open, the announcement for a cybernetically engineered super duper QE. It triggered a 172-point surge from 2214.00 up to 2386.00 within 1 hour, before retracing it all within 3 hours through Monday's open. And then through the rally's origin to Monday's 2179.75 low. Almost identical to the Tue Mar 2 inter-meeting rate cut whose surge was reversed as quickly. The morning's bearish influences were fulfilled, allowing a sharply bounce through Monday's noon hour up to 2290.75 was also reversed down through the afternoon. Back down through the Fed surge's origin, and attacking the morning's low to within 5-6 points. The low's oversold RSIs require an eventual retest, but that didn't prevent one more surge up to 2244.50. Much Senate rhetoric and only little Senate voting prevented trending either way. At least a knee-jerk reaction would be likely, and then a resolution could be credible for extending near-term in that direction. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2245.00 2232.50 ...would target 2269.75 2257.25 Bias-down: under 2206.00 2193.50 ...would target 2184.00 2171.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.