Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's 3904.00 gap up was delayed beyond the first 15 minutes from recovering Friday afternoon's 3918.00-3919.50 highs. This didn't prevent extending higher relentlessly to 3944.50 into the final hour. It also didn't marginalize sellers, or prevent the final hour's collapse back down to 3928.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) I compared yesterday's rally to the template that had immediately killed two prior corrective bounces, so this overnight pullback shouldn't be surprising. Initially retracing 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the final hour's collapse up to 3939.00 quickly reversed back down. The balance of the night has trended relentlessly to now test yesterday's opening range down to 3908.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Exiting yesterday's noon hour above the noon hour high and entering the final hour higher had signaled that buyers gained traction for their intraday efforts. This bullish PM traction setup has no influence until the next morning's bias window, so overnight downtrending doesn't prevent a morning rally -- especially if the pullback holds support through the open. Meanwhile, relentless overnight trending morning influence can be dictated by the open, and a bullish signal can reinforce other bullish setups. But a bearish bias-down signal is likely, if not also a renewed bias-down, so this morning's most bullish scenario could be limited to backing-and-filling back up to the proxy gap and holding the bias-down signal as resistance. Rejecting the PM traction influence can retest Friday's low, or even resume the decline. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

But a collapse is now testing the bias-down target. The first 15 minutes were discernible uptrending, signaling that countertrend sponsorship had reversed the relentless overnight trending to trigger its bullish setup. Its minimum retracement objectives are already met up to 3934.00 within 1 tick. For whatever reason, its resistance has launched a reaction that tested the 3918.75 bias-down target by 6 ticks. Support here must hold to avoid invaliding the no-bias signal, which triggered by recovering from under the 3928.75 bias-down signal at the 10:15 bias timing window. That put into play an offsetting test of its 3936.50 bias-up signal. Meanwhile, this being a no-bias window, probing under its 3928.75 bias-down signal is no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Yesterday's bullish PM Traction setup already expects at least to exit the bias window higher than it was entered. Exiting the bias window under its 3918.75 bias-down target would invalidate the no-bias trending and its retrace requirement. It could also reinstate the overnight reversal of yesterday's rally, putting into play a probe under last week's lows.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL BIAS-UP: above 3935.75 signal would target 3943.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3924.50 signal would target 3917.75. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Suddenly testing the bias-down signal. Recovering the overnight drop was made relevant by the first 15 minutes bullish behaviors: e.g. discernible uptrending, and holding Friday afternoon's highs as support. That didn't prevent a significant post-open drop, but it was also recovered to fresh intraday highs. Not recovering a relevant level would have been potentially bearish. But recovering relevant levels suggests buyers will be rewarded. Recovering two deep dips suggest buyers will be well-rewarded. That's starting to sound like a broken record. Not because that was likely for the overnight's recovery, and now likely for this morning's recovery, but because both recoveries have failed. After holding a test of the bias-up signal, suddenly the bias-down signal is being tested. Any deeper would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced to the signal. No-bias trending's retrace requirement contributed to saving this morning's detour. Twice in one day would be odd. There's plenty of upside to resuming the rally, but why is the rally not yet resuming may be more important.

PM Traction works in mysterious ways, and Monday's bullish setup ensured that Tuesday morning's 17-point dip would recover 22 points to fresh session highs at 3938.50. This also fully rewarded the first 15 minutes of uptrending that had triggered a bullish Relentless overnight trending setup. Rather than reward buyers for the pattern of recovering two big dips back above relevant levels, the pattern of big dips repeated first. Breaking under the morning's 3916.50 low as the afternoon bias window lapsed extended down to 3890.50. Now we'll see whether the recovery pattern will repeat, too. Its two recoveries back above relevant resistance suggest that it will. And multiple consecutive recoveries suggest a substantial upside reward is building. But everything is relative, and already having failed to reward the first two recoveries is starting to suggest something much more bearish is forming. Tuesday afternoon formed bearish PM Traction, which expects Wednesday morning's bias window to trend down. The 3:10-3:20 proxy window also trended down to fresh session lows, so it is possible that the setup got ahead of itself, which Market Tour will discuss in the context of overnight action. Meanwhile, the past four afternoons have included a relevant decline. Their immediate reactions have been mixed, but they haven't been rejected. And strong-handed buyers must take control sooner rather than later, or strong-handed sellers will fill the vacuum. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is LATE BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET BIAS-UP: above 3907.50 signal would target 3917.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3895.00 signal would target 3884.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.