Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Sun night's dip to 3998 was retraced entirely on the way to fresh highs at 4034, which was retested after a brief post-open dip. The resulting bullish Globex-flip and bias-up didn't produce uptrending. The 4003 gap-fill to Fri's cash session close was also probed to 4000. Its reversal triggered bias-up, and retraced entirely from its 4028 target back down to 4003.
Overnight price points : Popping-up into a 4010-4015 range through midnight launched a surge to 4024. Quickly reversing out of Europe's opens extended back down to Mon's 4000 low. Support there has launched a 38.2% retrace up to 4009.
Catalysts : Pre-open housing reports, post-open Consumer Confidence, SVB causes focus.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Gap indicated.
Their influences : Having ranged exclusively in positive territory Mon, even through its downlegs, there is extra attraction back to its closing price which makes breaking out of yesterday's range more difficult -- and also that much more meaningful if maintained through a timing window.

Essentially all of Mon's timing windows were spent in positive territory without extending higher, which may be the basis for ineffectual optimism. But the A.M. bias window only trended down which is pessimism -- albeit only in positive territory which can make that ineffectual pessimism. So, there is no shortage of opinion or its expression, and gapping in either direction Tue would be likely to extend for the morning.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Snapping back down out of Europe's opens from 4024 to 4000 is similar to yesterday's drops. That is, extending to support, but not through it into or out of a timing window lapse, expends a lot of selling pressure without gaining traction for the effort. This accounts for now already retracing 38.2% of it back up to 4009, at least offering an example of the support at Mon's lows.
Alternative : Already retracing 38.2% of the drop out of Europe's opens, and potentially extending that to 61.5% at 4014, would be better positioned to launch another downleg that exits the open under yesterday's 4000-4003 lows. Its likely objective would be 3977, and any lower would target Friday's test of 3940 and lower.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 3998, 3981, 3952.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Popping-up into a 4010-4015 range through midnight launched a surge to 4024. Quickly reversing out of Europe's opens extended back down to Mon's 4000 low. Its support combined with RSIs diverging positively to launch a 38.2% retrace attacking 4010.
New price points : Reversing down through the open to fresh lows at 3994 only fluctuated around Mon's lows through the open, failing to maintain bounces above the first 15 minute range at both 10:00 and 10:30. Inhibited buyers may have feared Fed speaker Bullard whose headlines triggered fresh lows at 3990.
Catalysts : Pre-open housing reports, post-open Consumer Confidence, SVB causes focus.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN... Headline reaction.
Their influences : Ultimately holding above the 3998 bias-down signal at 10:15 and not rejected through 10:30 puts into play an offsetting test of the 4018 bias-up signal. Its objective will become unfinished business if not met this morning... Headline reactions are usually corrected by at least 61.8%, and often entirely retraced to their origin, if not also reversed. Retracing any less like 38.2% or 50% is less common before extending the reaction can produce lower lows, which tend to be rejected aggressively.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Bias put into play a higher objective and tells us any interim dip is sponsored by weak hands, so therefore temporary. We can't control the timing of all headlines -- Bullard wasn't on calendars -- but his headline reaction probably isn't new news, making its reaction likelier to be proved a detour, even without the upside objective.
Alternative : Exiting the bias window under its 3982 bias-down target would suggest the untimely sellers are nevertheless strong-handed and invalidate any unfinished business above.
Levels : UP: 4050, 4092, 4121... DOWN: 3998, 3981, 3952.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

TUE P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4011, targeting 4026.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3996, targeting 3984.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.