Stock Market Trade Signals - 03-31-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the Chartroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday''s extreme sentiment of gapping up to 2065.00 was not a sentiment extreme. The post-open surge quickly exceeded 2069.00 resistance on the way to eventually attacking 2082.00. That fulfilled the afternoon''s bias-up target, while neutralizing overbought RSIs, without buyers gaining traction for the effort. A last-minute reaction down touched 2078.00 at the cash session close, and 2074.50 into the futures close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Initially firming to attack 2077.00 was short-lived. Monday''s last-minute reaction down became an all night imperative. Bouncing 5 points off of 2069.00 has resolved down to test 2062.50.

If, then...
So much for having reduced the vulnerability to extending down? Although Monday''s buyers had left absolutely no "unfinished business above," the last-minute dip had begun neutralizing selling pressure. Its overnight extension has attracted new selling pressure -- but, so far, only overnight. Rallying this morning will require either already recovering considerably before the open, or else extending further down to probe into Friday''s range. Regardless of the opening level, keep in mind that it is difficult for one-way overnight trending to attract intraday sponsorship to extend the trend.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2060.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2064.00 bias-down target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-down signal next targeting 2057.50. Exiting the open above 2068.00 would be unlikely to renew the bias-down signal.

Bias-down invalidated.

The pre-open drop to 2062.25 was recovered enough for the open to print 2068.00. The open extended to test this morning''s 2070.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Which held.

2070.50 held again as resistance after an interim dip to 2065.00. And 2070.50 held as resistance through 10:15 to trigger bias-down.

But, wait, there''s more...

Several elements of the open had undermined the downside potential. We had reason to suspect the bias-down would be invalidated -- that it would be recovered through 10:30:

The 2064.00 bias-down target had been met already, and attacked to within 3 ticks post-open. A relevant landmark (yesterday''s 2065.00 gap up print) was holding its test as support. And 2070.50 was being overlapped, albeit by legs and not by bars.

A buy signal above 2068.75 had triggered already, and its pullback limit was still being tested. That improved into and out of the bottom of the hour up to 2073.75. 

Yesterday''s mid-morning congestion at 2071.00-2075.00 is resistance, and it is pushing back. It won''t be recovered easily, if it''s recovered at all. An offsetting test of the 2082.25 bias-up signal remains in-play so long as the bias environment isn''t exited at 11:30 back under this morning''s 2070.50 bias-down signal... and it''s being tested now.

. TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2081.50
2073.50
...would target 2089.00
2081.00
Bias-down: under 2072.50
2064.50
...would target 2075.50
2057.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Monday''s close under 1.0855 extended down overnight to 1.0760 support, still targeting 1.0650.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Fresh lows overnight down to 1178.20 were recovered to open positive Tuesday, suggesting that sellers were losing momentum, but still needing to close above 1194.00 to signal the trend was reversing up to retest recent highs.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
The 16.45-16.60 pullback target was fully tested overnight, and fully retraced before Tuesday''s open. The target range''s upper-end was pierced intraday, but closing back above 16.90 would signal the rally is resuming.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Tuesday to attack 164-00 reacted down into negative territory under Monday''s lows, holding a test of 163-08 support and bouncing up above the open''s high to test 164-04 resistance. Further delaying fresh lows could bounce first to 164-30/165-08.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
.Monday''s last-minute blip-up that had attracted 48.75 resistance was rejected by probing fresh lows overnight down to 47.25. Its reaction up attacked 48.75, whose recovery can still launch at least a retest of recent highs at 51.45-52.50.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday''s narrow ranging duplicated Monday''s price action, and still delayed the eventual third lower close that is in-play..