Stock Market Trade Signals - 04-10-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
The prior high''s retest that began Monday finally broke higher Thursday. But not before one more failed rally required a recovery. That was the morning''s post-open surge to its 2081.25 bias-up signal, which was retraced to its 2069.00 and 2067.00 objectives as "no-bias trending." The balance of the session rallied 20 points to a fresh high at 2087.00, barely gaining traction for the effort.

Overnight action''s new info...
Sideways ranging between 2083.00-2087.00 only recently began probing higher. It''s not a "new Globex trend extreme," but there is complexity at 2089.50 and now 2090.50.

If, then...
Yesterday''s rally gained traction only after the bias environment''s exit. Its sponsorship is not the strongest hands. Gapping down today under yesterday afternoon''s lows could have invalidated it, but that now seems unlikely. Gapping up would be vulnerable if its immediate reaction down were not quickly absorbed. This being a Friday, the morning''s bias signal tends to persist through the noon hour. So, triggering bias-up or not can be the difference between extending the rally intraday or else dropping back into the week''s range... By the way, closing higher today would confirm yesterday''s breakout. As bullish as that could be near-term, it is the reason why today''s early momentum can''t yet be taken for granted.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2090.75 would be likely also to trigger the 2089.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2083.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Verrry sloooow to resume the rally.

The pre-open surge may have been no more than a reaction to GE''s buyback announcement. Regardless, dipping into and out of the open reacted back down to 2084.50.

That''s back under yesterday''s 2087.00 high, so trending back up would have to be the product of new sponsorship. In fact, fresh highs are being probed now up to 2093.25. 

But the fresh high''s new sponsorship is only weak-handed, because the 2089.00 bias-up signal triggered "noN-bias" (being overlapped at 10:15, and at 10:30). A bias objective isn''t attracting price higher, and won''t inhibit reversing down.

Yesterday''s late breakout was sponsored by weak hands, too. So, the path need not be down, but extending higher can be choppy. If not for the weekend''s impending illiquidity, sellers might not be so patient. But reversing into negative territory will be unlikely if the bias environment''s exit at 11:30 isn''t already trying to break back under yesterday''s high.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2101.75
2095.00
...would target 2107.50
2100.75
Bias-down: under 2095.00
2088.25
...would target 2090.25
2083.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The decline extended Thursday night and fulfilled the likely objective at 1.0585. A bounce there Friday morning was retraced entirely back to its lows. There is no unfinished business below, but there is also no upside momentum.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Rallying Thursday night from the original 1994.00 buy signal greeted Friday''s open by gapping up to the next buy signal at 1205.00. That extended higher intraday to probe its 1208.50-1213.00 confirmation range.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Thursday night''s rally greeted Friday''s open already back within the 16.45-16.60 range whose support had failed to hold earlier in the week. Probing above the range''s upper-end momentarily was reversed to probe back under its lower-end, missing a chance to signal that momentum was reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Thursday night''s rally recovered that afternoon''s negative reaction to the monthly 30-year auction. That represented a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of the cumulative drop from Wednesday''s high, and its resistance pushed back, stopping optimistically short of filling the gap back down to Thursday''s close -- and optimism is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
A fresh low Friday before rallying would have been optimal to finishing out a bottom. At least Friday open did blip-down to 50.08 attacked Thursday''s low before reacting back up. Perhaps it was the usual pre-weekend geopolitical risk premium that enabled the balance of the session to firm back up to Thursday''s high. Regardless of why, a second, less fungible requirement seemed to be fulfilled by ranging around 51.45 -- not to become too optimistic before the weekend.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
A second consecutive lower close Friday confirms Thursday''s break under prior lows as now requiring at least an eventual third lower close.