Stock Market Trade Signals - 04-15-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... A momentary surge to 2079.50 before Thursday's open was retraced back under Wednesday's 2077.00 high before the cash session got underway. The reversal extended down to 2071.75 soon after the open. Holding the bias-up signal's test had put into play an offsetting test of the bias-down another signal several points lower. But the bearish setup was invalidated by rallying through the bias environment's exit. Fresh highs came within 2-3 ticks of the 2082.25 objective before settling in for an afternoon of narrow ranging around Wednesday's 2077.00 high. Overnight action's new info... A momentary surge to 2080.00 was retraced as quickly back into Thursday afternoon's range. The range persisted as narrowly as it had Thursday afternoon, until Europe's opens launched a break lower. So far, Thursday morning's low has been attacked to within 2 ticks at 2072.25. If, then... Thursday afternoon had missed an opportunity for surging to fresh session highs. Its consequence was to probe fresh session, but the narrow range persisted. That didn't make a break less likely, which overnight action is trying, albeit still 4 points short of its likely objective to retest Thursday's 2068.50 pre-open low. Its test should be brief and rejected quickly to avoid extending down to 2059.50. In either case, the afternoon's bullish WedEX should prevent a morning meltdown. The bullish WedEX should also prevent an afternoon meltdown, so long as the window isn't entered under 2059.50. First Trade... Exiting the open at 9:45 2071.75 would be likely to trigger the 2073.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2076.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Pre-open surge reverses back to lows, momentarily. Overnight probing under yesterday afternoon's narrow range didn't begin until Europe's opens. A last-minute 3-point surge up to greeted the US open, blipping up to 2077.00. Compartmentalizing the overnight dip could have marginalized sellers, enabling a retest of yesterday's 2081.75 high. The high's retest this morning was already unlikely since yesterday afternoon's buyers didn't gain traction. Only gapping up would have negated that, so triggering bias-down back under 2073.25 is not surprising.

Of course, this is expiration. Surprises lurk.

That pre-open 3-point surge to 2077.00 was one surprise. Another is its nearly complete retracement after an interim drop back to the 2071.25 overnight low. And this recovery comes in a bias-down environment, which narrowly avoided invalidation at 10:30.

Back under 2074.25 would signal that the recovery had failed. Again. The 2067.50 bias-down target's test would remain in-play. It's too late for fresh highs to invalidate the bias-down, but we shouldn't be surprised if expiration leverages fresh highs into a surprising surge, anyway.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2084.25 2077.75 ...would target  2088.50 2082.25 Bias-down: under  2078.25  2072.00 ...would target 2074.00  2067.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

You know that relatively small trading range since Wednesday that I've been referencing? Friday afternoon's action took place in a relatively smaller range -- 5 points -- and it was as impressive as any other window. After probing fresh session lows, the bias environment was exited back above its entry. That is meaningful on any day, much more so on any Friday. On expiration, it fulfills the bullish WedEX signal's afternoon influence. And that has implications for WedEX's influence on Monday morning. Pretty interesting, considering that OPEC is meeting this weekend, and S&Ps and Crude Oil have often trended in unison. But don't leap to conclusions too quickly, since the bullish WedEX only influences post-open action. Gapping down sharply is still possible, so OPEC members might not reduce output. We'll discuss that and more at this weekend's Saturday Review, stating at 9:30am ET. Look for its link in your overnight email. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2084.75 2078.50 ...would target  2092.00  2085.75 Bias-down: under  2077.25  2071.75 ...would target 2073.75  2067.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP, TESTED BOTH BIAS-DOWN PARAMETERS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.