Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Sunday night's gap down had recovered to probe slightly above Friday's high to 2875.50, but that was reversed more substantially down to 2808.00. Bouncing into Monday's open trended up throughout the morning, as dictated by last week's bullish WedEX signal. Its 2861.00 peak stopped just short of positive territory as May Crude Oil's collapse accelerated. The balance of the session trended back down, finally probing the overnight low down to 2804.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Monday's last 90 minutes was retraced for several hours up to 2833.00 as Jun Crude Oil bounced. Both peaked simultaneously, triggering a collapse to 2772.00. Both firmed simultaneously, too, coming within 1 tick of yesterday's 2808.00 pre-open low. The bounce was reversed to earlier lows as Crude Oil plunged below $12 -- Jun, not May -- and now attacking 2762.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) No bullish premise can coexist with continued Crude carnage. And now the Jun contract has been cut nearly in half overnight, from 22.55 to 11.80. The last $9 only took ES back to its earlier low, similar to the relative strength of yesterday afternoon, only returning to its overnight lows while Crude collapsed. But there's probably only one bite at that apple, and holding a test of last Wed-Thu ~2753.00 lows through the open could rob sellers of any traction for the morning. Closing back above 2825.00-2827.00 could begin to rehabilitate the bullish case. Otherwise, not holding ~2753.00 would formally reject the interim bounce. And yesterday afternoon's sellers gained traction to suggest trending down this morning, which could cascade sharply lower. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2790.75 would be likely to trigger the 2798.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2766.00 would be likely also to exceed the bias-down target and renew the bias-down signal.

Position of weakness. The overnight decline had extended attacked 2747.25 before bouncing to the 2764.25 open. Post-open follow-through was shallow and brief, complying with my pre-open description of what would keep alive downside momentum. It reacted back down to 2750.00. That didn't prevent bouncing to a fresh post-open high at 2777.50. But the limited opening strength and its immediate reaction down had already established a position of weakness. The opening 15 minutes of volatility ultimately ended back under the open, and now fresh lows are testing 2742.00. The likely minimum objective for this morning's fresh lows is 2738.00-2741.00 (being probed now down to 2733.00). Exiting the bias environment at 11:30 any lower would next target 2715.00 and 2698.00. More important is that this behavior would be even more in-line with the bear market rally having ended. This action puts price back down into last Monday's consolidation. There was already no bullish reason for its retest. Not rejecting its test by bouncing, let alone probing lower, could find an air pocket below and sponsorship through Thursday morning. Recovering 2745.50 would be the minimum requirement to indicate momentum reversing up.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2749.50 2741.00 ...would target 2766.00 2757.50 Bias-down: under 2723.50 2715.00 ...would target 2710.50 2702.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bottom-fishing gets a turn. This morning's drop ultimately extended to attack 2717.00 during the noon hour. That was a retest of the morning's low. Their 2735.00 interim high was recovered coming out of the noon hour. This pattern is a Double Bottom, which is usually retraced eventually, after producing a bounce. And that bounce was still testing this afternoon's 2741.00 bias-up signal at both 1:20 and 1:30 to trigger noN-bias. Not a bias-up that would put into play its target. Not a non-bias that would require the bias-up signal's resistance to hold. But noN-bias that has no requirement at all. Meanwhile, the first potential target of the Double Bottom's bounce is now pushing back from 2747.00. Back under 2735.50 (now being probed by 1 point) would start to signal the bounce is done. Extending the bounce first could test 2756.50. Hope and expectation is heavy for NFLX post-close earnings to deliver some much needed good news. Whether or not it will, extending down this afternoon might be difficult or difficult to start meanwhile. Resuming the decline would get a benefit of the doubt for extending.

It quacks like the end of a bear market rally... The week began by gapping down sharply. After the morning's WedEX bounce, the market trended down relentlessly from Monday morning's 2861.00 bias environment exit to Tuesday morning's 2718.00 bias environment exit. The balance of the session ranged sideways, optimistically awaiting NFLX post-close earnings. Meanwhile, Tuesday afternoon's 2754.00 high retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the morning's drop. So, its reaction down is now free to resume the decline. Indexes did not react to NFLX and all the other high-profile earnings. Perhaps optimism ahead of quarterly earnings is finally hunkering down to posture defensively, if not also reversing down to retrace the bear market rally. Only breaking above Tuesday's high would even begin to suggest the trend is reversing back up. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2753.50 2745.00 ...would target 2778.50 2768.00 Bias-down: under 2728.50 2720.00 ...would target 2713.75 2705.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.