Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) 24 relentless hours of downtrending from 2861.00 ended at Tuesday morning's 2718.00 bias environment exit. The second consecutive gap down, second consecutive downtrending session, and second consecutive negative close only ranged sideways Tuesday afternoon. The consolidation at last Monday's lows was probed and largely contained Tuesday afternoon's range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Ranging sideways included a blip-down that touched the noon hour's 2717.25 low, but mostly hovered under 2743.00 through midnight. Suddenly breaking higher has extended to attack yesterday morning's high to within 2 ticks at 2777.00. Its reaction down is now testing 2759.00 where Europe's opens were met. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday's probe back into last Monday's lows consolidation had stopped optimistically short of its lows. And the drop wasn't rejected, closing under last Wed-Thu 2751.00-2753.00 lows to signal a trend change. Its confirmation would be a second consecutive close today under 2751.00-2753.00, preferably also under last Monday's 2711.00 prior low. The alternative wouldn't necessarily be bullish, but closing today back above 2788.00 or last Wed-Thu 2793.00-2798.00 highs would at least suggest momentum is reversing up. Resuming the decline today would likely extend down aggressively through Thursday morning, and could test "lower prior highs" at 2511.00 before consolidating for another downleg. And slowing into or off of the next such low would likely be only temporary on the way down to 2271.00. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2737.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2745.00 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 2750.50 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2774.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2768.00 bias-up target to renew bias-up.

Held up. The overnight rally to 2777.00 had reacted down, and was threatening to resume its rally when the Market Tour marked its resistance at 2772.50-2774.00. Reacting down from its resistance to 2757.00 could have rejected the overnight rally, but it was recovered to fresh highs. The open's blip-up to 2786.25 spent the first 15 minutes of volatility backing-and-filling down to 2766.25. Another couple of ticks lower would have launched a very delayed rejection of the gap up. But that sell signal didn't trigger, unlike two prior sell signals that got very chopped up. Now the rally is getting every benefit of the doubt for extending to 2788.00, if not also to 2795.00-2798.00. Currently a bounce up to 2784.25 is reacting down to 2774.00, which already undermines the bounce, Back under 2766.00 would start to signal another attempt at reversing down. Rejecting last night's rally is necessary to continue rejecting the bear market rally and to resuming the decline. Resuming the decline this afternoon and preferably sooner would be appropriate, too. Trending up higher this afternoon would suggest the bear market rally remains intact.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2803.00 2794.50 ...would target 2817.50 2808.00 Bias-down: under 2782.50 2773.00 ...would target 2762.75 2753.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Neither bias signal was even touched. This morning's post-open choppiness had tried yet again to reverse back down. But higher and higher highs, each barely probing above the previous, finally fulfilled the minimum upside target at 2788.00. Ranging sideways through the noon hour between 2779.00-2791.00 has now triggered no-bias. Neither of the 2773.00-2794.50 bias signals was even touched. But either should define that end of the window if touched. Meanwhile, the clock is ticking down for rejecting this bounce, and for resuming the decline. Trending back down this afternoon would be appropriate, if not also trending down aggressively. Extending higher has room up to 2795.00-2798.00, but not much time to absorb the higher high and then also reverse down -- not if this bounce intends on being rejected.

Tuesday's close under last Wed-Thu 2751.00-2755.00 lows had signaled a trend change. Closing under it Wednesday would have confirmed. That didn't happen. Quite the opposite, gapping open back within last Wed-Thu range at 2781.00 trended up into the session's final minutes. Closing above last Wed-Thu 2795.00-2798.00 highs would have been almost bullish. That didn't happen, either. A blip-up to 2808.00 fulfilled a target as the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window was lapsing. But its reaction plunged 26 points to 2782.00. Gapping open Thursday back under 2751.00-2755.00 would serve by proxy as Wednesday's close. Thursday's close would have to be under Tuesday's 2717.00-2718.00 lows to signal the trend reversing down -- and then require its own confirmation on Friday. Otherwise, the door is open to extending Wednesday's rally. Afternoon buyers gained traction by exiting the bias environment above the noon hour high and entering the noon hour higher. Stop me if you've heard this one before., but recovering 2725.00-2727.00 would target fresh highs, if not also 2930.00-2934.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2806.50 2798.00 ...would target 2819.50 2811.00 Bias-down: under 2785.50 2777.00 ...would target 2763.50 2755.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.