Stock Market Trade Signals - 04-28-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference. NEW! Market Tour transcript included at the end of this post...

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday morning's dip to 2379.00 neutralized the minimum attractions below. The pullback could have extended, and the alternative to extending wasn't necessarily to recover, let alone recover to fresh session highs. But the pullback recovered to fresh session highs anyway, triggering bias-up and then fulfilling its 2388.75 target. The balance of the session retraced to 2383.00, before recovering almost entirely into the close. Overnight action's new info... Similar behavior to the prior two nights is different in one way that suggests optimism remains very much intact. Narrow ranging is breaking higher, but earlier and earlier. Tuesday night had ranged narrowly before trending at Wednesday's open. Wednesday night's narrow range broke higher a couple of hours before the open. And now last night's narrow range already broke higher several hours ago. Trending up since Europe's opens has recovered from the 2383.50 overnight low back up to yesterday afternoon's 2388.75 high. If, then... Yesterday's pullback was anticipated, but it could have probed deeper. It still might. The two prior narrow overnight ranges tried resolving up, and were punished for the effort. Yesterday's pullback did produce at least the minimum, so trying to resolve up again today may succeed. But the open may be a recovery's only chance to gain traction. Friday Factors could exacerbate its success and rally sharply to attack 2400.00, or else punish its failure by probing back under yesterday's lows to at least test 2375.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2388.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2389.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2383.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2379.00 bias-down signal. Phonetic dictation... [NEW! Unreviewed voice-to-text real-time dictation of the Market Tour recording. Again, not reviewed or edited in any way, which can be equally confusing and humorous.] good morning and welcome it is Friday at Stanford Fridays Morning Market or a quick reminder at the top we have a Saturday review tomorrow morning 9:30 a.m. eastern so hope to see you there are lots of interesting stock action with earnings and earnings reactions so aunt and mornings coming if you want to look at those and see where they're being greeted if they're being created from a position of strength or weakness profile announcements this week which is interesting we're going to go over this tomorrow which is how this quarter was anticipated or approach that should say and how it is being squeezed basically right now this concept is clear because it could have on today that is gradual Improvement interrupted yesterday the other way effectually optimistic sort of by only testing resistance but not ever doing anything with it not closing above it opening at it probably it but not recovering it through element window and here's the point is I think this template coming into Friday with the Friday Factor cutting both way either way that two days of impending illiquidity if there is an attempt to resume the rally and then attempt to resume the rally fails whether or not 1895 I was tested and held or testing I-75 and then reverse back down under 88 through the open that would be pretty bad if the initial buying pressure is failing that finding new sponsorship retracting his sponsorship then the same optimism that led to such a shallow pull back yesterday as the fighting for the extent of the full-back that same shell and it puts them the reaction down in real close proximity to breaking out of your so where you say is stop short it may not be done there may be more to come so the difference will be I think and weather buy a sub triggers are not if we have it triggered by especially if I step is tested and not triggered not only will we be looking at sliding probably through the morning maybe not the more they fighted I mean there's so much optimism that they might fight it for the morning and then capitulate in the afternoon but down for the day anyway if there's any attempt to rally and it fails from 88 rate 9:35 or be if there's even not an attempt to Rally I just hovering here and waiting too late to try rolling anyway so there's that too likely scenarios for today and important note being we haven't ended up just because it's minimum objective as hell then responded reactive alright keep coming Qualcomm falling 4.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} pre market app reviews on dispute surprising on revenues and earnings alright probably not minimum is fulfilled but I'd still like to see some more backing and filling up rolling lower but I'll take seriously recovery if it starts getting in the way but I'll be late to that one as opposed to waiting for those first so probably not going to get before extending higher so this continuation pattern already resolving up and up so I don't want to buy a dip at this point now it as weakness which also Smoke Filled its minimum objective which was to probe under prior Lowe's buy still though with the NAFTA unknown renegotiation unknown the u.s. pull out or not no no probably not probably at some point probably has a little more weakness or probing lower than its really closing lowers you can say but again that's probably going to pull out of NAFTA which I say based on one thing alone and that is big news like that are unlikely I'll say another thing to its probably going to go shooting to threaten it so at that point or if that's the case or even a possibility we want to note that the Looney has completed its pull back or its reversal actually so no requirement it's a little premature at this moment alright is not really needing to retest it's high but doesn't have a lot of traction up here I think the risk of one more clothes so not really willing to front of that here alright see if it seemed that way at all but this is probably not going to produce and immediate recovery that's better there isn't any requirement that probably

About to retest yesterday's shallow dip? Resistance at 2388.00 held yesterday's highs, overnight highs and the open's highs. My warning in the Market Tour is in-play, that holding its test would be likely to reverse back under yesterday's low. But not necessarily abruptly. Barely testing 2388.00 didn't stretch the rubber band, so its reaction may lack the velocity of snapping back down. And not testing the 2389.75 bias-up signal has prevented putting into play an offsetting test of the bias-down signal. The two scenarios for this template are based on two responses to the Friday Factors of the weekend's impending illiquidity. Both scenarios include a capitulative leg, at some point intraday. One of the scenarios is also influenced by the recent optimism -- most recently yesterday's shallow morning dip -- and delays the deeper drop until the afternoon.

So, a bounce may be developing now. The first hour has already dropped 8 points to 2380.50, close to the 2379.00 bias-down signal. Being so far from the bias environment lapsing, correcting the post-open slide becomes likely.

Keep in mind that regardless of the bearish template, there no actual attraction below in-play. Trending down isn't reliable. And where there's no reliability to trend, there is vulnerability to reverse.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2388.50 2384.75 ...would target  2393.25  2389.75 Bias-down: under  2381.50  2378.00 ...would target 2375.75  2372.00 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Market feeling heavy as it won't leave its lows. This morning's bias environment trended straight down throughout. The window reversed from attacking recent 2388.75 highs, to probe under the 2383.50 overnight low down to this morning's 2379.00 bias-down signal.

Did that relentless 9-point drop reflect optimism?

Perhaps. Mostly because this morning's low stopped 2 ticks short of touching yesterday's 2378.75 low. Yesterday's pivotal low was touched. And if that was optimism, then there remains potential for an aggressive drop under yesterday's lows -- the capitulative leg described in the Market Tour.

This afternoon's bias-down avoided signaling. It wasn't even touched, despite still hovering at session lows. That's a degree of optimism. Breaking the bias environment's range prematurely isn't unusual on Friday afternoons. A bullish scenario would firm through the afternoon bias environment, whether or not to extend higher on its exit. Otherwise, approaching the bias environment's exit around or under 2381.00 would remain vulnerable to accelerating downward into the close.

Friday's session didn't include a capitulative leg. The morning's 9-point decline was contained, so it doesn't qualify. The afternoon only ranged flat-to-lower. And the session doesn't qualify very well as retesting Thursday's low. Friday morning's bottom was too high, and the afternoon's shallow lower low was too late. So, a capitulative break lower remains possible. Objectives below haven't changed, the likeliest being  2374.00 and 2371.50. The residual downside could be neutralized instantaneously Monday by gapping down to fulfill either objective. Counter-trend sponsorship tends to find that very attractive, when an entire week lies ahead. Gapping up Monday could be credible for resuming the rally without any further pullback. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

I'll send reminder and links to this weekend's Saturday Review early in the morning.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2389.25 2385.75 ...would target  2395.00  2391.50 Bias-down: under  2380.75 2377.25 ...would target  2374.50  2371.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.