Stock Market Trade Signals - 05-13-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday night''s slide exceeded its 2091.25 pullback limit considerably. Tuesday''s volatile open ranged choppily under that limit, and probed above it. Each timing window probed higher and higher, although each leg overlapped the morning''s test of 2096.00-2097.00. Buyers didn''t gain traction, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour''s high. But neither of the next two timing windows extended higher -- the final hour''s entry and 3:10-3:20 remained within the noon hour and bias environment ranges.

Overnight action''s new info...
Lacking traction didn''t prevent extending higher, first to test 2101.50 last night, and more recently to briefly touch 2105.75. That has reacted down to test 2101.50 as support.

If, then...
Overnight highs are probing back within Monday afternoon''s range, chipping away at its resistance and clearing the way for any post-open effort. If there is one. Gapping up is necessary to resume a rally that didn''t gain traction. So, this action is promising, keeping alive potential to new highs within 24-48 hours. Meanwhile, no prior traction also makes gapping up vulnerable. Not extending it post-open can produce a rubber band effect whose reversal down retests yesterday afternoon''s lows, which are 15-16 points lower.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2104.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2101.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2098.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2096.00 would be likely at least to attack Friday''s 2090.00 noon hour lows, and perhaps also this morning''s 2088.00 bias-down signal.

Pre-open and post-open rally efforts fail.

The post-open rally was bigger than its pre-open predecessor. And steeper. And shorter-lived.

A 5-minute surge from the open pierced the overnight high by 3 ticks up to 2106.50. And then the surge stopped. A 2-1/2 point range of congestion formed there, supported by an overlapping the 2104.25 preliminary indicator -- neither recovering it or rejecting it at 9:45.

Its eventual reaction has trended down. The 2101.50 bias-up signal was still being overlapped, too, at 10:15. And also at 10:30, so this is a noN-bias environment. The bias-up signal need not define the morning''s upper-end, and an offsetting test of the bias-down signal isn''t required. Its break lower just touched 2095.00. 

Yesterday''s closing "equilibrium" signal seems alive and well. Two convincing trending attempts have been retraced back into yesterday''s range. 

They haven''t alternated between positive and negative territory, so I''m reluctant to entertain a buy signal under 2099.50, or until 2093.50 or 2090.00 is tested... perhaps even the 2088.00 bias-down signal, which isn''t required.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2106.50
2102.25
...would target 2111.75
2107.50
Bias-down: under 2097.75
2093.50
...would target 2092.25
2088.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Surging Wednesday morning was already anticipated to be the only credible path higher, the objective being to retest the last rally leg''s 1.1380 target. It was tested at session highs, and a fresh high Thursday above 1.1400 would be vulnerable to reversing back down intraday.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Despite Tuesday''s bounce holding 1194.50 resistance, An overnight rally surged through 1201.50 to begin signaling a bigger rally leg underway targeting 1232.00, and already testing 1218.00. A second consecutive higher close would confirm, but only closing back under 1208.50 would undermine the upward momentum. Closing under 1197.00 would signal new lows in the 1160''s in-play instead.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Wednesday through the 16.50-16.65 resistance range extended sharply higher intraday to attack 17.25, with potential to 18.05.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Rallying through Wednesday''s open exceeded the 154-16 likely bounce limit up to 155-04. But an intraday reaction down and extended to 152-11. The shock-to-the system that needed to be absorbed now has another shock needing absorption. A narrow intraday range is likely.

Crude Oil Jun Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday''s bounce had signaled the pullback limit''s test held, which Wednesday''s extension higher tried to confirm. But retesting the original rally''s 62.75 target was reversed back into negative territory. Its recovery Thursday would target 70.00.

Natural Gas Jun Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday''s extension was confirmed by Wednesday''s higher close. At least an eventual third higher close is now required.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2103.75
2099.50
...would target 2109.25
2105.00
Bias-down: under 2092.25
2088.00
...would target 2086.25
2082.00
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.