Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's gap up to 2790.00 didn't reject Wednesday's session, which had gapped down to fresh lows and ranged sideways. Rather, Thursday's open was within Wednesday's range. And probing above it to 2799.00 was soon retraced to back within Wednesday's range, briefly probing negative territory down to 2776.50. Gaping up, probing a prior high and ranging entirely in positive territory was optimism, without closing above a prior high which made it potentially bearish "ineffectual optimism." And Thursday was the fifth consecutive session to develop post-open selling of consequence i.e. strong-handed distribution. Overnight action's new info... The Globex session had only briefly ranged narrowly around Thursday's 2889.00-2890.00 when Mexico tariffs were announced. That triggered a plunge to 2763.50, 2 points under Wednesday's low. Bouncing back up to 2776.00 by midnight was retraced entirely through Europe's opens. That has extended to fresh lows that just tested 2754.00, down 35 point from yesterday's close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) REMINDER: I will be away from the screens intermittently through late-morning, but updating signals in the chaRTroom remotely... Closing negative would have all but required trending down already into Friday's open. Having closed positive Thursday instead, more flat-to-lower ranging was possible through the morning, unless already trending down into Friday's open. Even without last night's news, the distributive pattern's influence should have become obvious to market participants into the weekend. But gapping down in reaction to the headline gives participants an artificial scapegoat, temporarily crowding out the organic decline's sponsorship. So, a morning bounce is possible, especially if post-open selling were to hold a test of 2750.50. Regardless, the next lower major objective remains 2725.25-2727.75. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2763.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2765.50 renewed bias-down target at 10:15.

Post-open probe under overnight lows has been retraced. The 2754.00 overnight low reacted up to 2762.50 before the open, which printed 2760.50. As expected, the intraday crowd would want to participate in the overnight fun. The opening 15 minutes of volatility extended to within 3 ticks of the 2750.50 target. Structurally, that was more than sufficient. Calculably, too. RSIs diverging positively as the open lapsed also suggested that sellers might pause. Rallying choppily since then has probed the open by 1 point, but only overlapped it. Actually recovering it could test yesterday's 2783.50 "higher prior lows," or even fill the gap back up to 2789.00-2790.00 today. Such is the power of Friday Factors, and a headline reaction meeting the weekend's impending illiquidity. Not already recovering the open as the bias environment lapses would instead be bearish, maintaining the decline next targeting 2725.25-2727.75.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2771.50 2771.50 ...would target 2778.25 2778.25 Bias-down: under 2760.75 2761.00 ...would target 2754.25 2754.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Satchel Paige afternoon? As is often the case when prices react sharply to a surprise, the knee-jerk reaction is sponsored by weak hands that quickly get ahead of themselves. Such was the case with gapping down to 2760.50 which quickly fell through the 2753.75 overnight low to 2751.50. Its reaction bounces 18 points through the bias environment to its high. Fulfilling the 2750.50 target to within 3 ticks when the opening 15 minutes of volatility had lapsed certainly helped. But now the recovery is in jeopardy. Trending back down through the noon hour to 2756.50 was recovered in time to avoid triggering the 2761.00 bias-down signal. Late. That's no assurance of resuming the recovery. But if this is the window's lower-end, then up is the path of least resistance. The reward would be "higher prior lows" at 2783.50 if not also the gap back up to yesterday's 2789.00-2790.00 close. Still overlapping the open and being deeply negative on Friday afternoon, an afternoon rally may be the only alternative to resuming the decline. Don't look back (down), in other words. Resuming the decline anyway remains possible throughout all of Friday afternoon.

Friday morning's post-open rally was a good example of the weak-handed knee-jerk reaction to an artificial catalyst crowding out organic sponsorship. Not a great example, but good. Thursday evening's announcement of Mexico tariff hikes sent price collapsing in the same direction as the ongoing distributive trend. But the trend's sponsorship is strong-handed, so it steps aside until the weak-handed reaction runs its course. The predictable gap down probed the overnight low, and then stopped. Its reaction rallied sharply through the window. A great example would also retrace to the headline's release. That's less likely when the origin is overnight. Regardless, the decline's organic sponsorship prevented a reaction from recovering any relevant level, certainly not through the close. And exiting Friday afternoon's bias environment at a fresh afternoon extreme tends to extend in that direction. That keeps Friday's session in-line with the prior five distributive sessions. The market remains highly vulnerable to extending down sharply Monday, with or without another artificial catalyst. But not with enough likelihood to be an overwhelming compelling hold-short, which is the minimum standard for weekends. Besides, since catalysts often switch back and forth, rallying out of the weekend is possible -- but it would be considered only temporary. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. MARKET WRAP INCLUDES A BIGGER PICTURE REVIEW, AS THERE IS NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2759.00 2759.00 ...would target 2766.00 2766.00 Bias-down: under 2749.25 2749.50 ...would target 2742.75 2743.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS SIGNALS, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.