Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-01-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Another attempt to recover 2118.00 at the open failed Friday, more substantially than any prior recovery attempt there. Just returning to 2112.00 had signaled a bigger reversal underway, which quickly extended down to 2102.25. Bouncing to 2115.00 on a Greece headline was largely retraced, albeit stopping optimistically short of actually touching the low.

Overnight action''s new info...
Firming Sunday night extended quietly back up to 2114.00 before being reversed sharply back down to 2104.00. A Symmetrical Triangle formed there, and then an hour ago it launched a 5-point surge to 2110.75 (reacting to a Greece headline, of course). That was retraced almost as quickly, now hovering above 2104.00.

If, then...
The first breakout from a Symmetrical Triangle is often false, and reversed more substantially in the opposite direction. Reversing the hour-old failed 5-point surge can measure another 8 or 16 points. Either would be part of fulfilling the probe under last week''s 2096.00 low by 2-3 points. This reversal must be influential during the opening 15 minutes, or else another bounce to 2114.00-2115.00 would be likelier.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2101.50 would be likely also to trigger the 2104.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2108.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Early buyers found out the hard way.

Overnight patterns can influence only the first 15 minutes of the cash session. So, if the pre-open Symmetrical Triangle''s second surge were going to fail, then it would be obvious quickly.

Naturally, the open blipped-up a couple of points to 2115.00. But then, sellers took obvious control, reversing down to test 2108.25. Recovering that through 9:45 would have marginalized sellers, but overlapping it meant nothing more than buyers failed.

Resolving down tested the 2104.25 bias-down signal. Its reaction up only attacked 2112.00 before resolving down again to 2100.25. This is a bias-down environment, triggered under 2104.25.

Having probed fresh lows after 10:15, nothing short of exiting the bias environment at 11:30 above 2115.00 can invalidate the bias-down. Friday''s ineffectually optimistic lows have been probed, but they''re still putting up a fight.

The 2098.50 bias-down target is in-play, probably on the way to probing last week''s 2096.00 lows by at least 2-3 points. A bounce has potential to 2106.50-2108.25. Back under 2101.50 (being tested now) would signal the decline had resumed already.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2114.00
2112.00
...would target 2120.00
2118.00
Bias-down: under 2103.50
2101.50
...would target 2097.25
2095.25
Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Potential for extending the corrective bounce above 1.1000 was interrupted by Monday''s drop to 1.0890, which retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the rally from last week''s 1.0820 low. Back above 1.0960 and 1.0975 would resume the bounce to 1.1095. Otherwise, extending the pullback any deeper could resume the massive decline.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
One or two modest spikes up hadn''t stretched the rubber band enough for its snap back down to finally chip away at support. That didn''t change whether the ranging was distributive. Neither did Monday morning''s surge to 1204.70, which retraced entirely back down to unchanged under 1190.00. That was preceded by early weakness, so closing negative is the minimum requirement to start a break lower.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Surging Monday morning to test 17.15 was retraced entirely to prevent buyers from gaining traction. But piercing negative territory under 16.65 didn''t actually reverse the trending back down, which is the bearish pattern''s only missing element.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The next higher objective for a corrective bounce was rendered moot when Monday avoided probing at all above Friday''s 155-26 high before trending back down intraday under 154-20 to signal the bounce had ended already. The reversal extended down to test 153-08, so a bounce now has room up to 154-12 to maintain the reversal down.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Closing under 60.30 Friday prevented the session''s rally from gaining traction. Monday was spent ranging around the original 59.75 sell signal. Back under 58.70 should resume the decline, but breaking above 60.80 would more likely test 63.00 first.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping down to fresh lows Sunday further delayed the potential for a buy signal. But closing Monday above Friday''s lows does allow a bottoming setup to form Tuesday, by probing Sunday night''s 2.60 low intraday and recovery back into Friday''s range again above 2.64, above 2.68 would be optimal. Bounces meanwhile should hold 2.71 as resistance.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2120.00
2118.00
...would target 2126.25
2124.25
Bias-down: under 2108.50
2106.50
...would target 2100.50
2098.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.