Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-15-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s 10-point gap down extended another 10 points into late-morning at 2082.00. That was the session low. A bounce was retraced almost entirely into the afternoon, while several sell signals stopped optimistically short of touching the low. The balance of the session ranged sideways.

Overnight action''s new info...
Greece headlines triggered a 9-point gap down Sunday night. Friday''s outstanding 2074.00 target was probed by 2 points during choppy sideways ranging back up to 2081.50.

If, then...
Last night''s lows tested Tuesday''s "lower prior highs." This is a possible low that we discussed during Saturday Review. Below it is the gap back to Tuesday''s 2072.25 futures close which was also touched overnight. Having bounced there, just touching Tuesday''s 2070.00 cash session close could find an air pocket down to 2059.50. Any one of these levels is capable of launching a reversal back into positive territory -- already recovering at the open could rally sharply into Wednesday morning. But not rejecting the drop by noon would be unlikely to avoid a much deeper decline underway.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2072.00 would be likely to renew the bias-down signal by not recovering this morning''s 2074.00 bias-down target through 10:15. Exiting the open above 2084.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2080.50 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Opening plunge puts the burden of proof on buyers.

Fresh lows greeted the open at 2070.25, filling the gap back to last Tuesday''s cash session close. Having bounced already from Tuesday''s 2072.25 futures gap, there was no bullish reason to touch the lower gap.

That''s why just touching 2070.25 post-open could discover an air pocket... which it did.

Actually, isolating the touch of 2070.25to the opening 15 minutes of volatility could have been absorbed. But the open''s 7-point plunge was certainly an air pocket.

1-minute RSI diverged positively on a lower-low at 2062.75, launching a bounce to attack 2070.25 (now being probed). It''s not required, but extending the bounce could touch 2074.00 without assuring an actual recovery underway.

Meanwhile, back under 2065.50 would signal the decline had resumed, next targeting 2059.50.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2089.00
2080.00
...would target 2095.25
2086.50
Bias-down: under 2078.50
2069.75
...would target 2072.75
2063.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Jun Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
An eerily narrow range accompanied pessimistic stock market reactions to the weekend''s heightened risk of a Grexit. The bigger picture continues to suggest that at least one more higher close remains outstanding before a sell-off could be credible. Monday only firmed back toward recent highs around 1.1300, but an Ascending Triangle has formed.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Sunday night''s fluctuation from positive territory into negative was recovered positive again Monday morning, nearly touching last week''s 1191.70 bounce limit high up to 1190.00. Closing back under 1183.50 would likely launch a new downleg.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Gapping up Monday extended higher briefly to probe back into the 16.15-16.35 resistance range, which again rejected price back down through the close, as a recovery is premature.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Friday reacted down sharply from only attacking 151-25 resistance to within 3 ticks. Nevertheless, Monday morning pierced 151-25 by 1 tick before reversing down under Friday''s reaction to 150-06. At least a session of backing-and-filling is now likely.

Crude Oil Jul Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh pullback lows testing 58.75 Sunday night trended back up after Monday''s open, still needing to recover the 60.30 pullback limit that had failed to hold its test as support last week. Closing back above 60.80 would still be credible for launching an upleg.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Friday''s test of 2.74 support had reacted up sharply, only to probe a fresh session low at 2.72 support. Monday''s open gapped up to 2.80 resistance and extended sharply higher intraday to retest last week''s highs. Closing higher again Tuesday would confirm the rally had resumed.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2088.75
2080.00
...would target 2095.25
2086.50
Bias-down: under 2076.75
2068.00
...would target 2069.50
2060.75
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.