Stock Market Trade Signals - 06-16-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Gapping down Thursday to 2419.50 launched several wide-ranging legs centered around the open. One leg pierced the 2416.50 overnight low by 1 tick as the first hour ended. The decline ended then, too, as the balance of the session rallied up to 2433.00. No new unfinished business was left outstanding below. The rally  gained traction by exiting the bias environment above its noon hour high, and then trending higher through the 3:10-3:20 proxy window. Overnight action's new info... 2433.00 had been the target of the afternoon bias environment breaking higher. It was met through the futures close, and immediately reacted down at the Globex open. Barely piercing 2430.00 was deep enough to resume the rally up to 2436.25 by midnight. Ranging sideways since then has is indicating a 4-5 point gap up, which would fill the gap back to Wednesday's 2435.50 close. If, then... The Wednesday Expiration (WedEX) signal is triggered at Wednesday's close, and doesn't influence price action until Friday afternoon. So, we never know what market level will greet it, let alone the interim pattern. But the scenarios can be gradually narrowed down. And gapping up to fill the gap from Wednesday's 2435.50 close has narrowed it down to two. This morning is likely either to rally through the filled gap, or else reverse down from filling it. Any other morning could range narrowly around the filled gap, and then rally during the afternoon, but today's bearish WedEX influence disqualifies that. Gapping and rallying could greet WedEX at new highs above 2443.50, for another likely rejection. Otherwise, already declining into the afternoon could attack or break this week's lows. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2436.50 would be likely to trigger the 2433.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2431.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Friday Friday morning not afternoon welcome to this morning's market tour so we've increased yesterday afternoon just says almost session long rally increased it proved it back up to a relevant resistance interesting Lee the Improvement was pretty much after an opening dip last night had improved all the way through midnight in to midnight by midnight and the balance of the night since midnight has fluctuated basically in a three-point range added a couple tickets at the high on here's what's being tested at the open it is the gap back to Wednesday's close recall Wednesdays close included Wednesdays opening High overnight games had a head of the fomc afternoon decision and yelling Q&A overnight gains were hopeful and then there was the Congressional shooting baseball park shooting in Washington DC outside of Washington DC and that just messed things up for that and made it difficult to rally on the fomc news the Gap back to Wednesday's close indicated to be filled at the open now I'm in this is quadruple which so can't rely on anything that we see at any point certainly not pre open there's some interesting economic reports coming out I believe is a consumer sentiment or sleepy I have a case either case let's find out consumer sentiment was so dad morning were to take its Gap up assuming we Gap up and rally to Fresh hives and embarrass wed x comes in and the Bears what exit is a passive recall it it's a passive Berry sweat X which means it was triggered by holding a test of a prior High well the afternoon if there's a passive Berez wet ex becomes vulnerable to trending back down not producing a new I close not on a Friday by the same token if the open opening action holds the test of the gap and Trends down and then greets the barest wet X that's not very far from Pryor Lowe's so we've got probably an interesting morning as much as an interesting day it's also not unusual pattern the gap for a gap in this situation to just hover basically back and fill before rallying in the afternoon but if we've got a bare Esthetics this should be precluded so just hovering here through the morning is actually going to be a warning that the wed x may not be bearish we'll talk about that little bit of stuff going on an overnightsilver retested it's Island islands are made to be retested the tither for the purpose of eventually breaking it or recovering from it overnight action is not revealing which but the question is whether silver is going to be predictive of precious metals or gold gold has a island that it created in the same time that's silver was testing its Island and it's not showing any signs of letting up and there's room to bounce up 266-6625 before even indicating that the island has reversed up okay Long Pond hasn't quite rejected Wednesdays huge surge it didn't confirm either the Breakout from this multi-session range so whether just got ahead of itself or that's a massive top which is the likeliest scenario not overwhelmingly like we're would have been overwhelmingly likely are had yesterday clothes back on the 155 but will still take a clothes under 155 is an indication of returning to test 159 2153 29 and there is just very little support remaining at 1:50 329 so much of it has been chipped away and having tested 153 29 to the degree that it was tested there's just there's really no polish reason to revisit it again crude oil it's not so much a second consecutive lower close here under the prior low despite having neutralize the attraction below it's just a failure to reject the lower close so it's not a confirmed but not currently grants for tomorrow morning that is a Saturday review we have a Saturday review next weekend as well and then not over the following weekend since the holiday good luck today .

Pre-open pullback extends lower post-open. How was the open going to resolve its test of Wednesday's 2435.50 close? Its test was indicated during the Market Tour. But it never got the opportunity to fill the gap. Instead, the earlier 2429.75 overnight low was retested as support. And the open slid easily through it. Reversing back through one overnight extreme isn't a reversal signal. Not alone. Not without first having extended the prior day's trend. That defines this morning's open, which has extended down sharply to 2421.25. The 2425.25 bias-down signal triggered late, putting into play its 2418.75 bias-down target. RSIs are making higher lows -- albeit higher oversold lows -- so an interim bounce can't be discounted. But momentum remains down so long as 2426.25 isn't recovered. Back above 2428.00 would start to signal a bigger bounce.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2432.50 2430.00 ...would target  2437.75  2435.50 Bias-down: under  2425.75  2423.50 ...would target 2421.25  2418.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering through the noon hour. This morning's late bias-down made it to 2420.25 before bouncing back up through the 2425.25 bias-down signal to 2427.00 by noon,and to 2428.50 during the noon hour. Neither afternoon bias signal was touched as price dipped to 2425.25. This is a no-bias environment. The bearish WedEX influence can't prevent probing above 2428.50, but it should lead to reversing back down before the close. This morning's 2418.75 bias-down target is now "unfinished business below," and a likely objective. Back above 2430.50 would start to suggest a more significant bounce underway -- which would undermine the afternoon's bearish influence.

Friday's pre-open and post-open behavior was more in-line with WedEX than was Friday afternoon. Especially since it is a passively bearish WedEX. The open's bearish setup was both passive and active. Probing a prior high -- like probing Thursday's high overnight -- and then reversing back under it is passive. Extending the reversing back under the earlier overnight low is actively bearish. This setup is responsible for the post-open 12-point plunge. Bouncing into and through the afternoon wasn't bearish. Friday afternoon ultimately ranged flat-to-higher. No bearish influence was obvious. The afternoon's 2430.00 bias-up signal wasn't touched until the final cash session bar -- the final hour otherwise made no new high. Positive territory was never recovered. So, no bullish influence was obvious, either. There certainly wasn't a bias-up, or any other inversion. This leaves Monday morning vulnerable to aggressive bearish behavior. "Unfinished business below" left outstanding at 2418.75 would be a likely objective if the week were to open under pressure. Otherwise, ignoring the bearish WedEX or waiting out its morning influence would clear the way to new highs -- if not also to a new high close, which another Friday has avoided despite starting the day in proximity. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

I'll send the Saturday Review link in the morning, well before its 9:30 ET start time.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2435.25  2433.00 ...would target 2440.75  2438.50 Bias-down: under  2426.25 2424.00 ...would target  2421.00  2418.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.