Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's session was mostly an inside day, and essentially a non-event, but not in its predictive value. Thursday's last-minute surge to 2899.50 had eventually extended overnight attacking 2903.00 above Thursday's highs. Its reaction probed Thursday's lows That also failed, eventually attacking 2884.00 Friday morning. This was the predictive value -- when Friday's fresh lows neither extended down nor recovered, but only ranged sideways. A late break higher attacking 2900.00 was too late to be more than "ineffectual optimism," and it reacted back down to the earlier range. The open and cash session close were unchanged from each other at 2893.00 (as were the week's open and Friday's settlement). Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's 2905.00 open rallied to fresh highs, the highest since last Monday morning attacking 2905.00. But its consolidation broke lower after midnight and through Europe's opens to 2896.50. Now a probe lower has touched the Globex open, where RSIs diverging positively triggered a bounce to resistance at 2896.00-2898.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday was essentially an inside day, so closing unchanged from its open isn't specifically predictive. Nevertheless, it's another indication of inertia, like settling unchanged from the week's open. So, all the more, trending won't be credible without the open almost literally exploding in that direction. Meanwhile, shallower or less forceful trending attempts are vulnerable to reversing directly. Last night's fresh highs were shallower or less forceful. Now retracing to the earlier Globex open may have formed a bearish "Globex-flip." The setup actually forms if the 2895.00 earlier Globex low is probed during the open, and then would trigger if the probe were maintained. So having essentially formed the setup, not triggering it could be as bullish as it would have been bearish. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2902.75 would likely trigger the 2900.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2896.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Trending setups ignored. Pre-open selling reached 2894.00 and post-open selling reached 2892.00. But the opening 15 minutes of volatility lapsed at 9:45 back at or above the 2895.00 earlier Globex low. The setup formed by overlapping 2895.00, but didn't trigger. So, the Globex-flip setup can be as bullish as it would have been bearish. That will be difficult, or else doomed to failure. The 2900.00 bias-up signal didn't trigger or invoke the grace period. And 2900.00 was only being overlapped at 10:30, not invalidating the no-bias. This is a no-bias environment, and either bias signal should define its range if tested. Trending beyond the range -- which the rejected Globex-flip setup now suggests -- would be "no-bias trending" that requires being retraced. 2900.00 is being overlapped anyway, and could retest the 2904.75 overnight high or test the 2907.50 bias-up target. Or higher. But it's break comes too late to be strong-handed sponsorship, dooming it to failure if attempted.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2896.00 2901.00 ...would target 2902.50 2907.50 Bias-down: under 2888.00 2893.25 ...would target 2882.75 2888.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Not even trying. The 11-point 2894.00-2905.00 range wasn't very wide. Its rejected Globex-flip produced at least an 11-point bounce from 2892.00. The setup is capable of being more productive than that, but it's not required. It did probe the bias-up signal's resistance during a no-bias environment. Regardless, its influence is done. Now the afternoon has triggered no-bias. Without even bothering to touch either bias signal. Touching either bias signal during this window would be required to hold or to retrace it. Meanwhile, there's no suggestion of any interest in probing either. Trending out of the bias environment would be credible for extending. Otherwise, extending the range too long could start to forecast a range bound reaction to Wednesday's FOMC events.

Monday's narrowly ranging session contained no predictive values that weren't already indicated on Friday. Similarly between the two, sellers didn't exploit an early setup's potential for extending down. But buyers also failed when their attempts to exploit the hesitation weren't maintained. Friday's example was its break above the session's range that began after entering the final hour, too late, and retraced to its breakout point. Monday's example was the rejected Globex-flip, bouncing 11 points from 2892.00-2903.00 and probing above Friday's 2900.00 late high, then falling. In fact, each failed rally was retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} to its prior low. And each was retraced back under 2896.00-2898.00 in time to avoid closing above it. Aggressive late selling stopped just short of touching the morning's low 2892.00 low. Its optimism is mild, but still bearish from a contrarian perspective. The range's likely resolution remains down, unless the open almost literally explodes higher, and then maintains/extends to avoid being a false break. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2893.00 2898.00 ...would target 2901.25 2906.25 Bias-down: under 2884.50 2889.75 ...would target 2877.25 2882.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.