Stock Market Trade Signals - 07-06-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Ultimately trending down through July 4 greeted the holiday-shortened week gapping down 4-1/2 points under 2089.75. Its recovery through Friday's close had created a requirement for eventually probing prior highs. Fresh lows into the afternoon attacked 2072.00, leaving no "unfinished business below," but not forming a solid base. Bouncing into the close was unlikely to be maintained. Overnight action's new info... Attacking 2085.00 resistance was reversed back down to probe well under Tuesday's lows. A recovery began before midnight from 2067.50, probing a fresh high at 2085.75 through Europe's opens. That sizable rally was rejected, dropping entirely back down to fresh lows at 2066.75. And now that sizable drop is reacting back up, at least to 2072.50. If, then... The most bullish scenario described during yesterday's Wrap was to greet this morning's open already in recovery mode from an overnight retest of yesterday's lows. Price action through Europe's opens seemed to be on that path, having reversed back up through yesterday's close. Rejecting the entire overnight recovery could still try, try again. But triggering bias-down, even without renewing it under the target, could extend next to 2055.00-2056.50. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2069.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2071.00 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2077.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2076.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Another double-pumped recovery fails. Last night's dip under yesterday's 2072.25 lows had recovered back up to fresh overnight highs. But that wasn't maintained, and overnight lows were probed. A bounce greeted the open, and it quickly touched the 2076.00 bias-down signal as resistance. Quickly reacting down to 2068.00 was recovered back up to fresh post-open highs. But that wasn't maintained, and overnight lows have been probed even lower.

Sellers and buyers both are getting a lot of second chances. And those second chances are being exploited.

Buyers now have a second chance to retake control. The 2071.00 bias-down target wasn't broken through 10:15, so the bias-down signal is not renewed. The target had been met already, and it was met later anyway, while RSIs avoided becoming oversold. The nearest renewed bias-down target has been met, too. None of which changes that this is a bias-down environment. But renewing the bias-down signal at 10:15 would have essentially put into play 2055.00-2056.50. That was avoided. It can be exploited by exiting the bias environment in rally mode recovering 2076.00.

Otherwise, 2055.00-2056.50 is the next lower objective, and the next opportunity to launch a rally back through last week's highs.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2093.50 2085.00 ...would target  2099.50  2091.00 Bias-down: under  2084.50  2076.00 ...would target  2079.50  2071.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

FOMC and resistance just ahead. This morning's fulfilled bias-down environment attempted what two prior timing windows had tried and failed -- yet another fresh low was recovered back to a prior high. This time worked. The recovery extended up to 2090.00. The 2065.75 low had essentially fulfilled the renewed bias-down signal. It was never in-play, since the 2071.00 bias-down target was recovered through 10:15. Lower lows were possible, despite not renewing the bias-down. But not renewing had left the door open to recovering. And the recovery extended through the noon hour. Now a 5-point pullback is reserving optimism ahead of the 2:00 FOMC Minutes. A knee-jerk reaction and resolution are not required to be in either direction, so be careful with any position going into the news.

Trending down overnight, reversing a recovery back down to fresh lows, and probing under overnight lows, all expended selling pressure. But along the way to testing 2066.00, sellers blinked -- they failed to exploit the opportunity to renew the bias-down signal. The balance of the session reversed back up to attack 2094.00 before the cash session close. It was probed minutes later. This neutralized last Friday's 2093.00 higher prior lows. Still, buyers didn't gain traction for their efforts. Extending the rally without delay would require gapping up, probably above 2097.00. Not gapping up would be vulnerable to another pullback, albeit briefer and shallower down to 2082.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2104.50 2097.00 ...would target  2110.755  2103.25 Bias-down: under  2095.50 2088.00 ...would target 2090.25  2082.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.