Stock Market Trade Signals - 07-07-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday night's weakness into Thursday's gap down was soon extended to fresh lows. The renewed 2411.00 bias-down target was nearly the lowest price of the nearly 3-week old downtrend. Last Thursday's low was lower, and the higher low's price could have begun forming a bottom. Indeed, the 2421.50 open was retraced into the afternoon bias environment. But only the open was retraced, gaining no traction, and the balance of the session collapsed to 2405.25. Still 3 points above last Thursday's low, but now too close to be only its retracement. Overnight action's new info... Firming into Thursday's close has held several tests of 2411.00 as resistance. Its latest was a blip-up to touch this morning's 2411.75 bias-up signal at Europe's opens, which then reacted down 4 points to fresh overnight lows at 2407.50. Firming again has resumed the consolidation resisted by 2411.00. If, then... This morning's Employment Situation report is widely assumed to be a non-event, unlikely to trigger or inform Fed action. Perhaps this most recent downleg from Monday's highs has been constructive defensive posturing by weak-handed sellers. None of which would prevent this morning's news from being a catalyst for extending down further. But breaking lower early could find sellers are already done, leaving the balance of the session to gravitate back up, if not also squeezing shorts. By the same token, an initially favorable knee-jerk reaction up would risk rallying too little to gain traction action, inviting another downleg into the weekend. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2409.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2411.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2415.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it's Friday it's time for Friday's morning market tour it is Friday July 7th 7 7 2017 Lucky Sevens I have no idea what that works here I don't know but what is what is working in the market is the downside it's been working for almost 3 weeks now that is two Mondays ago the market Gap out of a range and has been trending down ever since last Thursday it hit a fresh loaf for that downtrend low under the range that it had gapped up from attacking the prior low the prior pull back low at the end of May that prior pull back slow had stopped optimistically short touching touching 2399 the minimum objective or likely objective actually optimistically short but rallied anyway and we do the context was temporary and here we are 2399 is back and play because 2411 didn't hold yesterday it could have but it's reaction up didn't gain any traction didn't cover any ground or Tracy ground reclaim in the ground that hadn't already been tested intraday and as we suspected the balance of the session or at least the laws were broken and they were broken through the balance of the session the only way to offset that yesterday sellers or invalidate them is basically to Gap up today yesterday and if we if there's a reaction to the employment situation report that is the payrolls that are released before they open at mornings only I can have a comport if there's a favorable initially favorable need jerk reaction up it has room 215 50 16 and still likely to resolve down that's more difficult to recover from because then the clock starts ticking and were so much closer to the weekend it's difficult to find counter-trend sponsorship get out of a 1550 2416 through the open and yeah we'll look for a rally from there again it won't be in the context of rejecting yesterday's break under 11 so not a trend reversal but still rally otherwise or Meanwhile we're looking for fresh left and we can be prepping fresh Lowe's head of the news already and the news as a catalyst triggers that last mile that lasting ten yards down and they were done with selling so there's an opportunity here for the decline to end and if it is not obvious soon enough by sellers having reached some lower objective or buyers having cleared a major hurdle then the session does Trend down any questions please post them in the chartroom meanwhile hero backing off a little after yesterday's Buy Signal that filled one Gap as left another one outstanding I guess not really bad cough that much but does have upside left outstanding wants to fill the Gap back to yesterday's open 7736 if it's not a new high that wasn't actually it's above all entered a but it was already being probed prior to that but still that's likely to collapse already Gap outstanding to Friday's close are there irrelevant levels of course not without some external news going to get back down there organically so I would tend to give this a better for the doubt closing back above 1620 we already know is bullish prior to actually testing 1555 1560 closing above 1620 would have created a much bigger detour on the way to 1555 1560 Will having test to 1555 1560 already closing bag web 1620 would be vorse that's still a ways off when I prefer to see for a long entry or for a bullish setup is go ahead and test 5560 go ahead and test that intraday anyway I'd look at that favorably and would not require at this stage we testing the overnight low before rally Long Pond which broke yesterday lower it still in that range overnight notice yet another triangle descending triangle if not symmetrical triangle that's not really a symmetrical triangle so much as a trend line but we are getting some symmetry to the downtrending resistance in the up training support but the point is triangles represent in decision more than they represent a continuing continuation pattern and there's no great timing pre open Action said it's going to be tough to Rally out of here above 295 with a couple gaps below outstanding any questions or I will see you before the open don't forget we've got a Saturday review tomorrow alright good luck today.

Gap up holds resistance. Last-minute firming greeted the Employment Situation report on a shallow reaction off of 2411.00. Its reaction spiked up and extended to the 2417.25 bias-up target. That was retraced back down to the 2411.75 bias-up signal just before the open. All of which is too shallow to suggest stronger buyers are offsetting yesterday's sellers. The trend remains down.

First things, first. This is a bias-up environment. Exceeding the bias-up target through 10:15 would have renewed the bias-up signal next targeting 2425.25. But it held. Still being a bias-up environment, the morning's rally might extend, despite not being signaled. Regardless, the 2411.75 bias-up signal should define the window's lower-end if tested as support.

Until the bias environment begins lapsing. Breaking under 2411.75 after 11:30 would be free to extend down. And likely would. Regardless of the path there, resolving down remains likely so long as 2417.25 isn't exceeded as the bias environment begins lapsing.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2425.25 2423.00 ...would target  2430.00  2428.00 Bias-down: under  2418.25  2416.25 ...would target 2413.25  2411.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Advancing gradually. Today's gap up has extended. Fluctuating 2-3 points around the 2413.75 opening print broke higher when the bias environment began lapsing at 11:30. Testing 2424.00 into the noon hour then consolidated narrowly into the afternoon bias environment. This afternoon's 2423.00 bias-up signal triggered, barely, by a tick or two. It avoided triggering the grace period, barely, by a 1-minute 1-tick margin. And price soon probed higher, barely, attacking 2425.25 resistance and now fluctuating around the noon hour's 2424.25 high. Barely can be enough, and remaining in positive territory today is certainly a possibility. But sellers aren't marginalized since the open didn't gap up enough. We're still monitoring for possibly repeating the recent pattern of intraday directional reversals. That's difficult on a Friday, but it can be unstoppable if started.

Friday's Employment Situation report was greeted at Thursday morning's 2410.25 low, but not trending up. The gap up was only several points higher. And the morning ranged choppily sideways. All of which was more reflective of the ongoing downtrend's overwhelming momentum, and less about the bottom finally being in. The afternoon's 2423.00 bias-up signal triggered officially, but only by a 1-tick margin. Piercing higher momentarily was random noise, and not trending. Its target won't be considered "unfinished business above." Essentially, Friday's session was full of optimism and fulfilling for optimists. But its major accomplishments were to delay the eventual fresh low, and to stretch the rubber band for starting the next move lower. A fresh low can still form a bottom if it were to develop correctly. Reversing up already Monday would not be credible without gapping up at least 12-13 points. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Join us for this weekend's Saturday Review, which begins at 9:30am ET. Its link will be emailed early morning.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2428.50 2426.50 ...would target  2433.75  2431.75 Bias-down: under  2419.00 2417.00 ...would target 2413.00 2411.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.