Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's expiration rally to 3225.25 had reacted down Sunday night to test Thursday and Friday's lows down to 3190.25. Recovering opened flat Monday, and the 3214.00-3216.50 opening range remained intact through the 10:15 no-bias signal. Only then did buyers come alive, extending to fresh highs that ultimately trended up through the final hour. The likely candidate for ending its upleg at 3248.50-3250.25 was fully tested at the 3250.50 high. Overbought RSIs at the high will require being retested, and the last-minute reaction down to 3243.00 still held a new bear market rally high close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Flat-to-higher ranging through midnight neutralized Monday's late overbought RSIs. The EU reached agreement on a $2 trillion coronavirus bailout fund, triggering a surge up to 3267.00. A 9-point reaction down into Europe's opens was recovered on the way to higher highs at 3271.50. Now a 7-point reaction is trying to hold the earlier 3267.00 high as support If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Finally closing above the 6-week old Island's 3211.00 highs without also overlapping them has put into play 3288.00. The overnight rally is now testing the lower-end of room for noise around the objective at 3271.00-3303.00. This increases the vulnerability to distributive intraday reactions down -- albeit temporary. In case price were to reverse back down intraday, just closing above prior highs for a second consecutive session would confirm the rally's next higher objective remains in-play. Also in case of reversing down intraday, just gapping up in an uptrend would require filling the gap from below before a downtrend would be credible. Meanwhile, yesterday's close qualifies as a momentum breakout from a multi-session range. So, a second consecutive higher close today above yesterday's range would confirm that at least an eventual third higher close is likely to precede any credible reversal down. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3274.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3269.00 bias-up target and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3260.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 3257.50 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3253.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

And bias-up threatened with invalidation. The overnight rally eventually reached 3273.25. The open was greeted 10 points lower, on the way to another 5 points lower at 3258.25. That's a reasonable pullback to attract new buyers. But has it? Bouncing up to 3267.25 was still retraced down to the opening range's 3264.00 upper-end up at 10:00. Any higher then would have signaled that post-open sellers were absorbed. And now at 10:30 the opening range's 3258.25 lower-end was being pierced, but at least to within 2 ticks, i.e. not decisively. Also at 10:30 the 3257.50 bias-up signal was being tested as support. And still being overlapped. Bias-up had triggered cleanly at 10:15, so invalidating it required decisive price action. This wasn't it. Bias-up remains intact.

In fact, ultimately probing back under the bias-up signal down to 3254.00 is now bouncing back up to 3266.00.

The 3269.00 bias-up target has been met already post-open. It is still in-play, but it is disqualified from becoming unfinished business if not retested. By the same token, already having tested AND retested it post-open, testing it again would be that much likelier to resume the rally through overnight highs.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3277.75 3269.75 ...would target 3289.00 3281.00 Bias-down: under 3260.50 3252.50 ...would target 3248.00 3240.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still ranging around the open. Either end of the 3259.00-3264.00 opening range was probed during this morning's bias environment. Bounces have failed to extend up, but their reversals have also failed to extend up. Having gapped up, the burden of proof is on sellers. And the attempts to reverse down were meaningful, threatening to invalidate the morning's bias-up and later threatening to enter the noon hour lower. Sellers will get every benefit of the doubt if the trigger a signal. Otherwise, not yet rejecting the gap up as the afternoon bias window elapses should start to resolve up as at least 3271.00 is likely to be tested intraday.

Trending up overnight was accelerated by the reaction to the EU's $1T pandemic stimulus package. My 3271.00 target was probed by 2 points, and the complexity formed a new Globex trend extreme. Tuesday's 3263.75 gap up was above all prior highs. Ranging sideways around the open and hovering under the overnight highs was postured to break higher, but slid 25 points through the final hour down to 3239.25. Its last-minute reaction up to 3253.50 had reached only 3249.50 at the cash session close -- both new high closes, but either too short or too late to confirm Monday's breakout. The final hour's drop may have been the knee-jerk reaction to an unfavorable stimulus headline. The origin's timing seems a little off to me, but the relentless slide would make sense because late-afternoon headline reactions crowd out counter-trend sponsorship. So, if the late slide's catalyst was in fact a headline, then its reaction is also likely to follow-through to some degree on Wednesday. The exception would gap up to retrace at least 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the slide back above 3257.50. Regardless of further near-term weakness or its catalyst, its origin suggests only a temporary context. Tuesday afternoon price action had been chipping away at resistance, not at support. The 3273.25 overnight high's new Globex trend extreme requires intraday retest. The open's 3263.75 gap above all prior highs requires being filled from below. My 3271.00 rally objective should be tested intraday and not only overnight. The late slide stopped abruptly at the afternoon's bias-down target, satisfying the morning's distributive patterns, which suggests the slide wasn't correcting the rally, not reversing it. Whether pessimism or restrained optimism, hovering all day under 3271.00 and 3273.25 suggests that their eventual test will break higher to my next higher target at 3288.00. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3267.00 3259.00 ...would target 3282.00 3274.00 Bias-down: under 3247.00 3239.00 ...would target 3235.25 3227.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.