Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Surging 12 points after Thursday's close surge up to 3009.50 had formed the range for choppy overnight action. Friday's open pierced the overnight high and immediately began reversing down until fulfilling its 2993.50 objective during the bias environment exit. The noon hour's 10-point bounce reversed down to its 2986.00-2988.00 objective, too, also during the bias environment exit. But no bounce this time, as the final hour extended down to test 2978.00 at the cash session close. And as expirations often do, last-minute trended extended through the futures close, and then through maintenance down to 2969.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Sunday night's gap up to 2974.50-2975.50 partly rejected Friday's last-minute collapse to 2969.50. Its immediate reaction down to 2972.50 never traded lower. The 2980.50 bias-up signal defined the first consolidation, which eventually resolved up, and eventually attacked the 2988.00 bias-up target. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Testing 2986.00-2988.00, which could have supported Friday's backing-and-filling, is now as capable of being resistance. And similar to its break on Friday, which had essentially put into play 2973.00 (and extended down to 2960.50), its recovery today could unleash widespread buying. The challenge of overcoming 2986.00-2988.00 resistance is compounded by the bearish WedEX, which seems to have influenced Friday afternoon. It has potential to influence Monday morning's post-open action, too, regardless of gapping up. The opening 15 minutes of volatility can exceed a relevant resistance to invert its influence to bullish. Otherwise, this morning is likelier to decline again, even if only to fill the gap back to Friday's close or to retest its lows. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2984.50 would be likely to trigger the 2980.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2978.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

WedEX tried, and tried again. It's still trying. After trending down Friday afternoon, gapping up Monday doesn't invalidate the bearish WedEX influence. Neither did probing higher after the open's choppy range. 2986.00-2988.00 had defined overnight resistance for 3 hours. The 2981.50-2987.00 open's wide range was under resistance and didn't trend up, so the bearish influence remained intact. That didn't prevent probing fresh highs up to 2989.50, but a bearish WedEX would invalidate the probe. In fact, fresh highs reacted down to 2982.00. But not soon enough or deep enough to avoid triggering the 2980.50 bias-up signal. This is a bias-up environment. And testing 2980.50 should define the window's lower-end. That's now being put to the test, by fresh post-open lows at 2978.50. But not until AFTER the bottom of the hour, when the bias-up could have been invalidated. And the bearish WedEX influence, too, having failed twice through the first hour to retake control. So, the rally is likelier to resume than to be retraced. It's at least likelier to resume than to be retraced under Friday's lows. Having said that, exiting the bias environment under Friday's lows would be bearish.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2985.75 2988.00 ...would target 2994.25 2996.50 Bias-down: under 2977.25 2979.75 ...would target 2971.50 2973.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Buying pressure seems pent-up. Failing twice to exploit the open's opportunities for reversing down, the morning triggered bias-up. That didn't prevent probing fresh post-open lows after 10:30, but it doomed them to failure. So, was that detour the product of WedEX's bearish influence? The lows did fill the gap back down to Friday's 2979.75 cash session close. That's common for a bearish WedEX's influence on a Monday gap up. Why do we care after the fact whether the post-open pullback was due to WedEX? Because it's also common for the setup to resume the overnight rally that had produced the gap up. And this morning's 2989.50 high is already retraced. Meanwhile, this is a no-bias environment. Its 2988.00 bias-up signal should define the window's upper-end until the bias environment starts lapsing at 2:30, or at least 10-15 minutes prior. If a rally hasn't yet emerged through that window, then something more substantial to the downside must be underway.

An influential bearish WedEX would be expected to reverse momentum down by 10:15. At least Monday's open didn't gain upside traction, and an interim probe of fresh highs at 2989.50 was absorbed. But two opportunities to reverse momentum down weren't exploited. Probing fresh lows later was productive, and filled the gap back down to Friday's 2977.75 cash session close. This is common for bearish WedEX influence on Mondays, as is the afternoon recovery to fresh session highs. Monday eventually recovered to 2993.50. So, assuming that all things bearish on Monday were the product of a bearish WedEX, how'd sellers do? Not well. The morning's unsuccessful attempt to reverse down was followed by a similar afternoon failure. Surging to fresh highs at the final hour's entry was retraced back under the 2986.00 bias environment low. Simply holding there through the close would have signaled that Monday's bounce was done. But the cash session close had recovered back above the bias environment lows. And the bias environment high was being probed at the futures close. The burden of proof is on sellers. And that's essentially defined by breaking under 2979.75. This leaves a lot of room under Monday's 2988.00-2989.00 close for noise. And if the pullback from last week's highs is done, then its recovery is free to begin without further delay. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2989.50 2991.75 ...would target 2995.50 2997.75 Bias-down: under 2978.00 2980.50 ...would target 2970.50 2973.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.