Stock Market Trade Signals - 07-24-2015

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2110.75
2104.00
...would target 2117.75
2111.00
Bias-down: under 2100.00
2093.25
...would target 2093.50
2086.75
Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN
FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday morning''s rally neutralized it upside attraction by attacking 2111.00 to within 3 ticks. Without attracting new sponsorship, perhaps inhibited by Turkey firing on Syria, the recovery attempt was undone by a slide to 2095.00 into the noon hour. Similarly, a bounce to 2101.00 was reversed to fresh lows at 2091.50. Its reaction closed back at the noon hour''s low.

Overnight action''s new info...
Futures extended the last-minute recovery to settle at 2099.25. Flat-to-lower ranging began resolving up after Europe''s opens, extending to 2104.00.

If, then...
Closing under 2099.25 puts into play much lower objectives at 2077.00. That close is being challenged overnight, and has yet to be confirmed by a second consecutive lower close. It can still be rejected to foreclose upon the downside, and triggering a significant rally for having expended more selling pressure than is sustainable. Despite the decline having been so productive, its sponsorship by weak-hands is suggested by its impatience, with unfinished business left outstanding above. Even the strongest rally can be blind-sided and overwhelmed by surprises (it''s never "peace suddenly breaking out"). But the weekend''s impending illiquidity has a way of focusing the market on how firmly it believes earnings growth may be at risk. So, with buyers not gaining traction yesterday, gapping up sufficiently this morning is probably the only way to avoid extending the decline. By the same token, maintaining a sufficient gap up -- or, at least, extending sufficiently higher through the open -- should hardly look back before extending sharply higher this morning.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2105.50 would be likely to trigger the 2104.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Opening plunge has extended to fulfill half of the next lower target.

The pre-open slide from the overnight rally had extended down to 2095.50. The open plunged to 2091.25. A reaction up touched the 2096.25 bounce limit, refueling sellers for another plunge.

The 2093.25 bias-down signal was broken at 10:15 and is being probed to fresh lows down to 2087.00. The 2086.75 bias-down target is in-play, but having come within 3 ticks neutralizes it from becoming "unfinished business above" if left outstanding.

The remaining opportunities to reject yesterday''s close under 2099.25 aren''t only shrinking in number, but also in plausibility. Probing new multi-session lows ahead of the weekend isn''t often reversed coming out of it. The next lower objective at 2077.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2099.25
2092.50
...would target 2104.50
2097.75
Bias-down: under 2088.75
2082.00
...would target 2082.25
2075.50
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday''s gap down from Thursday''s 1.1010 close stopped short of touching 1.0920 before bouncing back toward Thursday''s close. There''s no requirement to tick any higher before returning to the 1.0835-1.0855 lows.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Another overnight plunge was able to fulfill the 1076.50 targeted retest of Sunday night''s 1080.00 low down to 1072.20. The open was already probing above 1076.50 and extended slightly higher intraday. Retesting the actual low isn''t required, but the 1090.00 bounce limit was probed after Friday''s close, potentially creating extra room to help absorb another sell-off.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Overnight lows fulfilled the 14.40-14.45 target which was retested intraday Friday down to 14.33, and recovered back up to 14.40-14.45. A low could begin developing so long as Monday does not close lower.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Slicing through the gap at 154-00 Friday kept alive the upside momentum to continue higher overnight. Friday''s stock market decline encouraged a flight-to-quality that helped to push price higher to test 155-03, targeting 155-26 so long as 154-00 holds any test as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Thursday''s test of the 48.25 target Thursday didn''t react up much overnight before Friday''s fresh low tested 47.75. Its reaction tried recovering 48.25. Closing back above 49.25 would signal the downleg was ending, if not also reversing up.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday afternoon''s test of 2.83 extended lower overnight to also test 2.77, which lowers the buy signal to 2.83. The session essentially ranged narrowly sideways at or around 2.77.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2087.75
2081.00
...would target 2093.50
2087.00
Bias-down: under 2078.25
2071.75
...would target 2071.75
2065.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.