Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Fresh lows overnight to 3199.00 had reacted up sharply to 3225.00, still several points under Thursday's close. Two more large downlegs defined the session: Trending back down through the open to 3194.00 reacted up sharply to 3219.00, and trending back down again greeted the afternoon bias environment within 5 ticks of its 3190.25 bias-down target. Still accustomed to bouncing sharply, another sharp bounce to 3213.50 was bias-down uptrending that ultimately reacted down to 3196.00. Closing Friday under Thursday's low confirmed its breakout from the Tue-Wed multi-session range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's 3-7 point gap up to 3211.00 reversed down immediately until attacking Friday's low to within 2 ticks at 3192.00. China rallying strongly triggered a reversal back up through the open, through Friday's high by 4 point to attack 3224.00. As China's markets turned negative, a pullback through Europe's opens probed 3211.00 by 2 points, but its reaction has recovered to fluctuate around Friday's highs, apparently in anticipation of progress today on new stimulus funding. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Friday's non-trending confirmation session and the distance of a weekend make today vulnerable to at least correcting Thursday's drop with a bounce. Only fluctuating overnight within Friday's range keeps the door open to resuming the decline anyway. If the open is indicated around Friday's highs where currently trending, then trending either way through the open would be that much likelier to extend in that direction. Unfinished business at 3274.00 and 3284.50 would be the likely upside rewards, and 3160.00-3170.00 on the downside. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3220.50 would be likely to trigger the 3217.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3211.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Corrective bounce on cue. Today's likelier pattern was a bounce, since Friday's confirmation of Thursday's breakout was non-trending. Trending up through the opening 15 minutes would have made a morning bounce even likelier, but the window only recovered back to the 3216.00 open after dipping to 3207.50. The dip did form an Opening thrust by filling the gap back to Friday's 3208.00 cash session close, and holding it by 9:45. So, exceeding the open's 3207.50-3216.00 range through 10:00 confirmed that sellers were absorbed. Decisively triggering the 3217.75 bias-up signal helped further, as did exceeding the pre-10:15 3227.50 high. The 3232.50 bias-up target is in-play. Being a correction, its durability is more vulnerable to knee-jerk reactions. But the burden of proof is on sellers until at least fulfilling the bias-up target. It is currently being attacked by just more than 3 points.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3233.00 3225.25 ...would target 3245.75 3238.00 Bias-down: under 3219.50 3211.75 ...would target 3208.25 3200.50 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

The bounce day continues. The open's 10-point dip down to 3217.00 had recovered back above Friday's highs to test 3229.00, triggering bias-up and putting into play its 3232.50 bias-up target. A pullback targeting the 3217.75 bias-up signal as support extended down to 3211.00. It was likely to be only a detour, which was proved by entering the noon hour back above 3217.75, although oversold RSIs at 3211.00 will need to be retested eventually. Extending the bounce has triggered this afternoon's late bias-up. Bias-up triggered by the grace of 10 extra minutes and 1 extra tick. In fact, the 3225.25 bias-up signal is still being overlapped. Nonetheless, its 3238.00 bias-up target is in-play. Extending the bounce would likely be done aggressively, especially if the bounce is only temporary. Already resolving down during today's last 60-90 minutes could be aggressive, too.

Monday was likely to bounce, since Friday's confirmation of Thursday's breakout had not itself trended. Sunday's open had initially attacked Friday's lows down to 3192.00, but soon recovered to hover at or above Friday's high up to 3223.50. Monday's open initially filled the gap down to Friday's close at 3207.00. And held. The opening thrust setup was confirmed bullish at 10:00, and bias-up triggered at 10:15. A pullback to 3211.00 was recovered by noon on the way to fulfilling the morning's bias-up target up to 3233.50. Unfinished business was left outstanding above at the afternoon's 3238.00 late bias-up target, and below at the 3211.00 pullback's oversold RSIs. I'd like to give Monday's rally a benefit of the doubt for gaining PM traction. Although the final hour's entry didn't confirm the bias environment exit above the noon hour high, the 3:10-3:20 proxy window was on the cusp of probing fresh afternoon highs. A late negative divergence was too late to be strong-handed counter-trending, which suggests the rally's own sponsorship was correcting. Only gapping down or sliding sharply Tuesday morning would undermine the corrective bounce from extending. How much higher can a corrective bounce extend? How much higher can a bounce extend and still be only a correction? Thursday's breakout already requires at least an eventual lower close under 3191.00. Having entrenched the bearish resolution, a bounce could still test 3250.50 higher prior lows, the breakout session's 3272.00 high or its unfinished business at 3274.00, last week's 3284.50 new Globex trend extreme or even to 3288.00. Complexity above last week's highs would undermine the corrective bounce scenario. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3245.75 3238.00 ...would target 3258.00 3250.50 Bias-down: under 3232.75 3225.25 ...would target 3218.00 3210.50 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.