Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday's corrective bounce had extended initially overnight to attack 3247.00, but Tuesday's 3224.00 open was back in negative territory. Pre-open and post-open dips had recovered back above Monday afternoon's 3231.00 close, and triggered bias-up, all undermining sellers. A gradual intraday rally barely came to within 2 points of fulfilling the morning's 3238.00 bias objective at the afternoon high. The final hour reversed down sharply to fresh session lows at 3208.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Early Globex firming initially extended up to 3221.00, but Tuesday's 3208.00 low was retraced by midnight. A briefly lower low attacking 3204.00 was soon recovered by a rally that greeted Europe's opens back at 3221.00. Consolidating since then has briefly probed fresh overnight highs up to 3223.50. . If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Last night's pattern is exemplifies the inputs I had described at yesterday's close. Anxiousness was likely to thicken ahead of this morning's Tech CEO Senate hearings, the afternoon's FOMC events, and perhaps also earnings. Trending would be unlikely to gain traction, but still attempted. Yesterday afternoon's slide was already a version of that, sliding sharply, and probing the morning's low, but not maintaining its break. Last night's pattern repeated that. With last Thursday's confirmed breakout still required to produce at least one more lower close, FOMC is not being greeted from a position of strength. Which doesn't prevent bouncing this morning, or duplicating last night's recovery from another probe lower, but the context suggests any favorable reaction would be temporary. Remember that underlying today's inputs is the Wednesday Wreversal influence, the week's most liquid session often containing multiple strong intraday trends. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open above 3224.50 would be likely to trigger the 3220.25 bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 3217.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Gliding to its target, which is also resistance. Dipping overnight under yesterday's low had recovered back up to the earlier 3221.00 overnight high. Breaking higher pre-open up to 3226.00 was corrected down to the 3221.00 open, which surged momentarily through 3226.00. That pre-open corrective dip had also touched this morning's 3220.25 bias-up signal as support. The consolidation resolved up again, trending relentlessly to touch this morning's 3233.00 bias-up target. It's too late to exceed it for renewing the bias-up signal. Probing higher is possible -- this is still a bias-up environment -- but probing higher isn't required. Reacting down is also possible. The bias-up environment has room back down to its 3220.25 bias-up signal as support. Breaking any lower would be credible after the bias environment begins lapsing. Regardless, remember that trending can be attempted, but not likely extended with the afternoon's FOMC events looming. UPDATE: Previously I described the Tech CEO Senate hearing as being held this morning, but it is now scheduled to beging at noon ET.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3246.25 3238.00 ...would target 3258.75 3250.50 Bias-down: under 3232.50 3225.25 ...would target 3218.75 3210.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Tech CEOs hearing underway. FOMC events upcoming. So, the Congressional Tech hearing wasn't Monday, and it wasn't this morning, it didn't start at noon, and it's not in the Senate. I'm not even sure it's the CEOs, and could be a web designer, Genius Bar rep, and delivery driver. But it is now underway, and opening statements don't suggest any surprises are on tap. Hold that sigh of relief with the rest of your breath, as the FOMC policy statement is just minutes away at 2:00. Fed Chair Powell's Q&A starts 30 minutes later, and volatility throughout each event is more likely than any other event. The volatility is also protracted. All of which is being greeted optimistically, having trended up from the 3204.25 overnight low through the 3220.50 open to attack 3243.00. Yesterday's unfinished business at the morning's 3238.00 bias objective is neutralized, while triggering this afternoon's 3238.00 bias-up signal. A fresh high since 1:20 confirms the bias-up. But remember that while bias levels are always influential, they're less predictive on FOMC afternoons. Inflection points calculated from price action since noon are more influential, and displayed in the chaRTroom.

Similar to late-Monday's concentrated slide that held prior lows down to 3208.00, fresh overnight lows down to 3204.00 had recovered to fresh overnight highs at 3223.50. A post-open downleg was unlikely in that sequence. In fact, the morning's 3233.00 bias-up target was soon met. Unfinished business at 3238.00 was probed up to 3243.00 before the afternoon's FOMC events. Its volatile knee-jerk reaction resolved up to probe the afternoon's bias-up target up to 3254.25. That was also last Thursday's higher prior lows, and its reaction prevented triggering a bullish PM traction setup. Fresh highs eventually reached 3257.00. My pre-open comments Wednesday had noted that FOMC was being greeted from a position of weakness. But also that this wouldn't prevent rallying, and any rally it produced would likely fail. Wednesday's rally has yet to fail, but that's the assumption. Fail from where, is the question. Wednesday's close was only overlapping 3250.50-3253.50. Closing above it would have all but assured extending up to unfinished business at 3274.00 and 3284.50. Extending higher without delay is still possible, but not as likely, because gapping down Thursday under Wednesday afternoon's 3235.50 low would reverse the trend down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3266.00 3257.75 ...would target 3279.00 3270.75 Bias-down: under 3249.50 3241.50 ...would target 3236.75 3228.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.